New York factory index hits pre-recession level !!!
Manufacturing activity in the New York area rebounded to its highest level since the recession began in late 2007, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Tuesday.
U.S. retail sales surge as economy gains strength !!!
U.S. retail sales rose in August at the fastest pace in 3-1/2 years and a gauge of New York State manufacturing hit a near two-year high, offering hope for a solid recovery from a severe recession.
Production in U.S. Increased More Than Anticipated !!!
Industrial production in the U.S. rose more than forecast in August.
Output at factories, mines and utilities climbed 0.8 percent last month after a 1 percent gain in July that was larger than previously estimated, according to a report from the Federal Reserve today in Washington.
The amount of industrial capacity in use increased to 69.6 percent, the highest level since February, from 69 percent a month earlier.
U.S. factories. Exports rose 2.2 percent in July, according to a Commerce Department report released Sept. 10.
The Greatest Sucker's Rally in History?
Posted Sep 15, 2009 01:20pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession
Related: dia, spy, qqqq, ^djia, ^gspc
In the past six months, Aaron and I have talked a lot about the similarity between the rally of early 1930 and the one we're having today.
The early 1930 rally came after the market had fallen nearly 50% in the fall of 1929. The spring rally took the market up nearly 50% again, to a level that was only about 20% below the previous peak.
That rally, of course, was also the biggest sucker's rally in history. After the market peaked in April 1930, it crashed again, eventually ending up down 89% from the 1929 high and more than 80% from the 1930 high. The market did not reach the 1930 high again for another quarter of a century.
Our current rally came after a crash that was actually slightly more severe than the 1929 crash (53% versus 48%). It has taken the market up more than 50% from the low. Our current rally has also lasted slightly longer than the 1930 rally did.
Today's rally, of course, may actually be the start of a great new bull market, one that will climb the "wall of worry" back toward the previous record highs. On the other hand, it may yet also be another version of what happened in 1930.
We won't know for sure what today's market is until we look at it with the genius of 20/20 hindsight. As yet another reminder of how similar the patterns up to this point have been, check out this excellent compilation of New York Times clippings from early 1930 put together by Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital.
Dan's complete compilation is contained in a broader research piece, which is embedded at the end. The slides below contain excerpts from February-April, 1930:
The Greatest Sucker's Rally In History, Play By Play
LONDON (AP) -- Shares in Royal Bank of Scotland PLC dropped 5.3 percent Monday after media reports said the bailed-out lender is considering tapping shareholders for cash to reduce the government's involvement in its finances.
RBS hopes to keep the government from increasing its stake in the bank to as much as 84.5 percent from 70 percent by limiting its participation in the Government Asset Protection Scheme -- an insurance plan for the hard-to-sell securities that are burdening bank finances -- The Times of London reported, citing unidentified sources.
A spokesman for the bank declined to comment.
RBS posted the largest annual loss in British corporate history last year -- a 24.1 billion pound ($34.4 billion) black hole fed by the bank's aggressive acquisition spree of recent years, including the takeover of ABN Amro.
After the group was bailed out, its management announced it would place hundreds of billions of pounds of shaky securities dubbed toxic assets into the government protection program.
The scheme is costly, however, and with financial markets stabilizing and economic indicators pointing to recovery, bailed-out banks have been looking for alternatives to the plan.
Monday's reports come a week after Lloyds Banking Group said it is negotiating with regulators about possibly reducing the amount of toxic assets to be covered by the GAPS.
Lloyds, in which the government holds a 43.4 percent stake, had announced in March that it intended to place 260 billion pounds ($425 billion) of risky, untradeable assets in the government program. That was expected to raise the government's stake to 65 percent.
The bank cited improving market conditions for wanting to limit its participation in the scheme.
RBS shares fell 5.3 percent to 53.30 pence ($0.86) while Lloyds was down 2.4 percent at 108.05 pence ($1.75).
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