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Buy ‘Cyclical’ Stocks as Worst Is Past, Goldman Says (Update1)
By Alexis Xydias
April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Investors in European stocks should increasingly favor manufacturing, technology and other industries that rely on economic growth as the global recession eases, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
“Recent data makes us more confident the worst in the economic cycle is past, and we further move towards cyclicals from defensives,” a team of London-based strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a report dated yesterday. “Our strategy is to trade the cycles as they emerge, but be nimble as we may need to make more frequent sector changes than typically following a trough.”
Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation on European industrial goods and services companies to “overweight,” matching its stance on oil and gas producers, carmakers and telecommunications providers. The brokerage also upgraded technology and travel shares to “neutral.”
The MSCI World Index has risen 22 percent since March 9 on speculation governments’ actions to support banks and stimulate growth will help pull the global economy out of its first recession since World War II. U.S. durable-goods orders and home sales and Chinese manufacturing data have fueled optimism over the past month that the economic slump may be abating.
Strategists at Odds
Strategists are at odds over whether the low in March marked the bottom of Europe’s 21-month stocks rout. Morgan Stanley’s Teun Draaisma on April 6 advised investors to sell European equities, saying “the bear market is not over.” A day later, Mislav Matejka, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of European equity strategy, said the rally will go on as investors buy before an expected rebound in earnings growth this year.
The Goldman Sachs team downgraded its recommendations on some industries that are less geared to economic growth. Drugmakers were cut to “neutral” and food and beverage producers were reduced to “underweight.”
Since Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index reached a near seven-year high on June 1, 2007, a measure of food producers has dropped 35 percent. That compares with a 56 percent slump for the Stoxx Industrial Goods and Services Index.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home#
Buy Cyclical Stocks as Worst Is Past,
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โพสต์ที่ 4
US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected
You've heard all the gloom and doom about this recession. Now here's some good news: the economic recovery could happen much sooner—and be much stronger—than anyone thought possible.
Suddenly, a small but growing group of private-sector economists is disputing the idea that the recession will drag on for months and that the rebound will be as weak as those following the the 1991 and 2001 downturns.
“Too many people’s idea of recession have been formed by the last two recessions,” says Robert Brusca of Fact & Opinion Economics, referring to the 1991 and 2001 periods, which were both short and shallow. "I think that's mistaken.”
“People have been talking about an L-shaped recession,” adds Michael Mussa, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The record shows you come back sharply from deep recessions” like the current one.
These economists and others see a V-shaped pattern, similar to that of the recession-recovery periods of the 1970s and 1980s. And they say there is ample evidence to support it.
Among the reasons for the new optimism: a significant easing of the credit crunch, improvement in consumer spending—including better auto sales—a potential bottom in housing, a less-grim jobs picture and expectations that the government's massive stimulus spending could start boosting economic growth almost immediately.
That doesn’t mean anyone is saying the recession is over yet. But the end is closer than people think.
Though the decline in first-quarter growth will be along the lines of the six-plus percent plunge of the fourth quarter of 2008, some economists now expect a flat or slightly negative showing in the second quarter, followed by the beginning of sustained growth in the third quarter. (That’s three months sooner than what many were forecasting several months ago.)
Optimists acknowledge that existing headwinds and unforeseen events can quickly derail momentum, which may help explain why a majority of opinions--including that of the the Federal Reserve--still fall into the wait-and-see camp.
“The velocity of downturn is lessening," says John J Castellani, chief economist and president of the Business Roundtable, who is more cautious than hopeful at this point. “In the initial part of the recovery, people will be very cautious about this being a double dip.”
Nevertheless, those forecasting a strong recovery point first and foremost to the waning effects of the Lehman Brothers collapse last fall, which roughly coincides with the worst of the credit crunch, and triggered a massive chain reaction in payroll and production cuts.
“The initial adjustment tends to be too big, then there’s some reversal of that,” says Ram Bhagavatula, managing director at the hedge fund, Combinatorics Capital.
That dynamic will lead to swifter and stronger recovery in both the economy and employment that many economists are forecasting.
Mussa, a former White House and International Monetary Fund economist, says that GDP will be a cumulative 6-8 percent higher six quarter than the bottom, depending on whether the recovery starts in the early or late summer.
Brusca is expecting a minimum of 4.5 percent GDP growth over the first four quarters of the recovery
All About The Economy
Both performances compare favorably with the post-WWII average, and while they may be less than the recoveries of the 70s and 80s they are significantly more than those of the past two recessions
In the 70s cycle, GDP shrank two consecutive years then posted GDP growth averaging 5 percent in 1976-1977; in the case of the 80s, the economy contracted 1.9 percent—more than economists expect for full year 2009—then grew 4.5 percent in the first year of recovery.
By contrast, the 2001 recession was so brief and shallow, GDP didn’t register a contraction for the whole year. Growth in the 2002-2003 period, however, averaged just 2 percent. Similarly, in 1991, the economy shrank 0.2 percent, followed by 3-percent growth in 1992 and 1993.
Economists also cite several reasons for better labor market conditions this time. They expect job losses as well as the unemployment rate to peak close to the time growth bottoms out, as was the case in the 80s and 90s, and thus not resemble the jobless recoveries of the two most recent recessions.
“Once recovery starts, it won’t be long before the unemployment rate begins to decline,” says Mussa, who doesn’t see the jobless rate breaking 10 percent.
Though the recession of 2001 ended in November of that year, 12 months later the economy had added just 200,000 jobs. Moreover, the jobless rate kept rising through June of 2003.
By contrast, payroll losses bottomed out one month after the recession of 1982 ended in November. Payrolls were 3 million higher a year later.
No one is expecting such robust job growth this time, but economists say the relatively strong showing in productivity during this recession points to lean payrolls, which will have to be fattened up--in some cases, quickly--as the economy improves.
"When you have high peaks in jobless claims, you have sharp declines in claims," says Brusca.
More broadly, economists also point to a number of economic factors that bode well, despite lingering concerns about he credit crunch.
“Cyclical forces trump secular forces,” says Brusca, referring to the massive de-leveraging by both consumers and business. “This is especially true when authorities have stepped in to stabilize it,” after a shocking event like Lehman.
“We have massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in the pipeline,” says Macroeconomic Advisers President Chris Vavares.
Macroeconomic Advisers, whose economist forecast for 2010 is more optimistic than that of the White House, estimates the government fiscal stimulus package will add 2 percent to GDP in the second quarter, one reason why the firm expects the economy to shrink by only 0.5 percent during the period. The consensus is for a 2.0-percent decline.
Then there are a handful of cyclical elements on the verge of being positives.
AP
Consumer spending is growing again, while inventories are being wound down. Housing and autos, in particular, says economists, hint at both pent-up demand and a production rebound.
“Housing will be an important element of the upturn right from the start,” says Mussa, who notes housing starts have been “beaten down” so much that supply will have to be added simply to accommodate demographic demand from new households.
The auto sector, which posted a surprise increase in sales in March, also has the potential to be a driving force.
“We all focus on what lousy shape they are in and not on that they have been cutting production,” says Varvares. “When you look at how quickly motor vehicles sales fell off the table last year--that big decline had a lot to due with the lack of financing.”
Varvares says automakers are starting to feel better about the credit environment and will offer better financing deals.
Macroeconomic Advisers' analysis makes a strong case for the role of housing and autos.
The two sectors erased a combined 2.5-3.0 percent from first quarter GDP, says Varvares. Autos, however will add 0.7 percent to GDP in the second quarter. Housing is expected to add 0.5 to 1.0 percent to GDP in 2010.
So, if the optimists are right, it's a case of gloom and boom.
"People were very gloomy in late '74 and '75," says Mussa. "They were gloomy in 1982."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30111906
You've heard all the gloom and doom about this recession. Now here's some good news: the economic recovery could happen much sooner—and be much stronger—than anyone thought possible.
Suddenly, a small but growing group of private-sector economists is disputing the idea that the recession will drag on for months and that the rebound will be as weak as those following the the 1991 and 2001 downturns.
“Too many people’s idea of recession have been formed by the last two recessions,” says Robert Brusca of Fact & Opinion Economics, referring to the 1991 and 2001 periods, which were both short and shallow. "I think that's mistaken.”
“People have been talking about an L-shaped recession,” adds Michael Mussa, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The record shows you come back sharply from deep recessions” like the current one.
These economists and others see a V-shaped pattern, similar to that of the recession-recovery periods of the 1970s and 1980s. And they say there is ample evidence to support it.
Among the reasons for the new optimism: a significant easing of the credit crunch, improvement in consumer spending—including better auto sales—a potential bottom in housing, a less-grim jobs picture and expectations that the government's massive stimulus spending could start boosting economic growth almost immediately.
That doesn’t mean anyone is saying the recession is over yet. But the end is closer than people think.
Though the decline in first-quarter growth will be along the lines of the six-plus percent plunge of the fourth quarter of 2008, some economists now expect a flat or slightly negative showing in the second quarter, followed by the beginning of sustained growth in the third quarter. (That’s three months sooner than what many were forecasting several months ago.)
Optimists acknowledge that existing headwinds and unforeseen events can quickly derail momentum, which may help explain why a majority of opinions--including that of the the Federal Reserve--still fall into the wait-and-see camp.
“The velocity of downturn is lessening," says John J Castellani, chief economist and president of the Business Roundtable, who is more cautious than hopeful at this point. “In the initial part of the recovery, people will be very cautious about this being a double dip.”
Nevertheless, those forecasting a strong recovery point first and foremost to the waning effects of the Lehman Brothers collapse last fall, which roughly coincides with the worst of the credit crunch, and triggered a massive chain reaction in payroll and production cuts.
“The initial adjustment tends to be too big, then there’s some reversal of that,” says Ram Bhagavatula, managing director at the hedge fund, Combinatorics Capital.
That dynamic will lead to swifter and stronger recovery in both the economy and employment that many economists are forecasting.
Mussa, a former White House and International Monetary Fund economist, says that GDP will be a cumulative 6-8 percent higher six quarter than the bottom, depending on whether the recovery starts in the early or late summer.
Brusca is expecting a minimum of 4.5 percent GDP growth over the first four quarters of the recovery
All About The Economy
Both performances compare favorably with the post-WWII average, and while they may be less than the recoveries of the 70s and 80s they are significantly more than those of the past two recessions
In the 70s cycle, GDP shrank two consecutive years then posted GDP growth averaging 5 percent in 1976-1977; in the case of the 80s, the economy contracted 1.9 percent—more than economists expect for full year 2009—then grew 4.5 percent in the first year of recovery.
By contrast, the 2001 recession was so brief and shallow, GDP didn’t register a contraction for the whole year. Growth in the 2002-2003 period, however, averaged just 2 percent. Similarly, in 1991, the economy shrank 0.2 percent, followed by 3-percent growth in 1992 and 1993.
Economists also cite several reasons for better labor market conditions this time. They expect job losses as well as the unemployment rate to peak close to the time growth bottoms out, as was the case in the 80s and 90s, and thus not resemble the jobless recoveries of the two most recent recessions.
“Once recovery starts, it won’t be long before the unemployment rate begins to decline,” says Mussa, who doesn’t see the jobless rate breaking 10 percent.
Though the recession of 2001 ended in November of that year, 12 months later the economy had added just 200,000 jobs. Moreover, the jobless rate kept rising through June of 2003.
By contrast, payroll losses bottomed out one month after the recession of 1982 ended in November. Payrolls were 3 million higher a year later.
No one is expecting such robust job growth this time, but economists say the relatively strong showing in productivity during this recession points to lean payrolls, which will have to be fattened up--in some cases, quickly--as the economy improves.
"When you have high peaks in jobless claims, you have sharp declines in claims," says Brusca.
More broadly, economists also point to a number of economic factors that bode well, despite lingering concerns about he credit crunch.
“Cyclical forces trump secular forces,” says Brusca, referring to the massive de-leveraging by both consumers and business. “This is especially true when authorities have stepped in to stabilize it,” after a shocking event like Lehman.
“We have massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in the pipeline,” says Macroeconomic Advisers President Chris Vavares.
Macroeconomic Advisers, whose economist forecast for 2010 is more optimistic than that of the White House, estimates the government fiscal stimulus package will add 2 percent to GDP in the second quarter, one reason why the firm expects the economy to shrink by only 0.5 percent during the period. The consensus is for a 2.0-percent decline.
Then there are a handful of cyclical elements on the verge of being positives.
AP
Consumer spending is growing again, while inventories are being wound down. Housing and autos, in particular, says economists, hint at both pent-up demand and a production rebound.
“Housing will be an important element of the upturn right from the start,” says Mussa, who notes housing starts have been “beaten down” so much that supply will have to be added simply to accommodate demographic demand from new households.
The auto sector, which posted a surprise increase in sales in March, also has the potential to be a driving force.
“We all focus on what lousy shape they are in and not on that they have been cutting production,” says Varvares. “When you look at how quickly motor vehicles sales fell off the table last year--that big decline had a lot to due with the lack of financing.”
Varvares says automakers are starting to feel better about the credit environment and will offer better financing deals.
Macroeconomic Advisers' analysis makes a strong case for the role of housing and autos.
The two sectors erased a combined 2.5-3.0 percent from first quarter GDP, says Varvares. Autos, however will add 0.7 percent to GDP in the second quarter. Housing is expected to add 0.5 to 1.0 percent to GDP in 2010.
So, if the optimists are right, it's a case of gloom and boom.
"People were very gloomy in late '74 and '75," says Mussa. "They were gloomy in 1982."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30111906
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Buy Cyclical Stocks as Worst Is Past,
โพสต์ที่ 5
เศรษฐกิจญี่ปุ่นส่อเค้าฟื้นตัว ปริมาณสั่งซื้อเครื่องจักรขยับเพิ่ม
ใน เดือนกุมภาพันธ์ที่ผ่านมายอดสั่งเครื่องจักรในประเทศญี่ปุ่นซึ่งเป็นดัชนี ชี้วัดการขยายตัวทางเศรษฐกิจ เพิ่มขึ้นอย่างที่ไม่มีใครคาดคิดเป็นครั้งแรกในรอบ 5 เดือน ซึ่งอาจเป็นสัญญาณบ่งบอกว่าสถานการณ์ถดถอยทางเศรษฐกิจเริ่มคลี่คลาย
สำนักงานคณะรัฐมนตรีประเทศญี่ปุ่น เปิดเผยเมื่อเร็วๆนี้ว่ามีสัญญาณบ่งชี้ถึงแนวโน้มการเพิ่มขึ้นของยอดสั่งจอง เครื่องจักรเป็นดัชนีชี้วัดแนวโน้มการลงทุน ในช่วง 3-6 เดือนข้างหน้า ประมาณ 1.4% เมื่อเทียบกับสถิติในเดือนมกราคมที่ผ่านมา
ราคาหุ้นของบริษัท โคมัตสุ จำกัด ผู้ผลิตรถขุดรายใหญ่ที่สุดของญี่ปุ่น ปรับตัวสูงขึ้น เพราะนักลงทุนพิจารณาว่าตัวเลขการหดตัวของเศรษฐกิจในระดับ 12.1% ในช่วงไตรมาสที่ 4 ของปีงบประมาณที่แล้วซึ่งสิ้นสุดในวันที่ 31 มีนาคม จะเป็นจุดต่ำสุดของการตกต่ำของเศรษฐกิจญี่ปุ่น นอกจากนั้นนักลงทุนยังมีความมั่นใจในแผนกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจมูลค่า 154,000 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯของ นายทาโร อาโสะ นายกรัฐมนตรี ซึ่งเป็นวงเงินมูลค่าสูงสุดในรอบปี ว่าจะสามารถป้องกันไม่ให้เศรษฐกิจญี่ปุ่นที่เผชิญกับภาวะการส่งออกลดลงอย่าง รุนแรง ตกต่ำลงไปกว่าที่เป็นอยู่
นายเคียวเฮ โมริตะ หัวหน้านักเศรษฐศาสตร์แห่งบริษัท บาร์เคลย์ แคปิตอล จำกัด กล่าวว่าสถานะในเดือนกุมภาพันธ์ที่ผ่านมาน่าจะเป็นจุดต่ำสุดของเศรษฐกิจแล้ว "แต่การฟื้นตัวจากจุดต่ำสุดไม่ได้หมายความว่าเศรษฐกิจจะฟื้นตัวอย่างมั่นคง"
นอกจากนั้นยังมีรายงานว่าบริษัทหลายแห่งมีแผนที่จะเพิ่มปริมาณผลผลิต หลังจากที่ได้ระบายสินค้าคงคลังออกไป และดัชนีความเชื่อมั่นในการค้าขายประจำเดือนมีนาคมไต่สู่ระดับสูงสุดในรอบ 8 เดือน นอกจากนั้นผู้ผลิตสินค้าคาดว่าบรรยากาศการดำเนินธุรกิจในช่วงไตรมาสถัดไปจะ ดีขึ้นกว่าที่เป็นอยู่ในเวลานี้
สถานการณ์เศรษฐกิจทั่วโลกมีแนวโน้มปรับตัวในทิศทางที่ดีขึ้นหลังจากรัฐบาล ของประเทศต่างๆได้อัดฉีดงบประมาณเพื่อกระตุ้นความต้องการสินค้า ในประเทศจีนปริมาณการลงทุนในอสังหาริมทรัพย์เพิ่มขึ้น 26.5% ในช่วง 2 เดือนแรกของปี 2552 ส่วนประเทศเกาหลีใต้ปรับลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยสู่ระดับ 2% หลังจากที่ปริมาณการผลิตสินค้าอุตสาหกรรมเพิ่มขึ้นและดัชนีความเชื่อมั่นของ ผู้ผลิตเพิ่มขึ้นสูงสุดในรอบ 5 เดือน
นายเบน เบอร์นานคี ผู้ว่าธนาคารกลางแห่งประเทศสหรัฐอเมริกา (เฟด) กล่าวในเดือนมีนาคมว่า ตนเองได้เห็น "การแตกหน่อ" ในตลาดการเงินบางแห่ง และเชื่อว่าความถดถอยของเศรษฐกิจ "จะบรรเทาลง"
ทั้งนี้สำนักงานคณะรัฐมนตรีของญี่ปุ่นได้ปรับเพิ่มตัวเลขประมาณการสั่งซื้อ เครื่องจักรเป็นครั้งแรกตั้งแต่เดือนพฤษภาคม 2550 และระบุว่าการขยายตัวของปริมาณการสั่งซื้อเครื่องจักรจะเพิ่มขึ้นเล็กน้อย แต่ในภาพรวมก็ยังอยู่ในทิศทางขาลง" อนึ่ง ก่อนหน้านี้ สำนักงาน ระบุว่ายอดสั่งซื้อเครื่องจักรในประเทศญี่ปุ่น "ลดลงอย่างรวดเร็ว"
http://www.thannews.th.com/detialNews.p ... issue=2418
ใน เดือนกุมภาพันธ์ที่ผ่านมายอดสั่งเครื่องจักรในประเทศญี่ปุ่นซึ่งเป็นดัชนี ชี้วัดการขยายตัวทางเศรษฐกิจ เพิ่มขึ้นอย่างที่ไม่มีใครคาดคิดเป็นครั้งแรกในรอบ 5 เดือน ซึ่งอาจเป็นสัญญาณบ่งบอกว่าสถานการณ์ถดถอยทางเศรษฐกิจเริ่มคลี่คลาย
สำนักงานคณะรัฐมนตรีประเทศญี่ปุ่น เปิดเผยเมื่อเร็วๆนี้ว่ามีสัญญาณบ่งชี้ถึงแนวโน้มการเพิ่มขึ้นของยอดสั่งจอง เครื่องจักรเป็นดัชนีชี้วัดแนวโน้มการลงทุน ในช่วง 3-6 เดือนข้างหน้า ประมาณ 1.4% เมื่อเทียบกับสถิติในเดือนมกราคมที่ผ่านมา
ราคาหุ้นของบริษัท โคมัตสุ จำกัด ผู้ผลิตรถขุดรายใหญ่ที่สุดของญี่ปุ่น ปรับตัวสูงขึ้น เพราะนักลงทุนพิจารณาว่าตัวเลขการหดตัวของเศรษฐกิจในระดับ 12.1% ในช่วงไตรมาสที่ 4 ของปีงบประมาณที่แล้วซึ่งสิ้นสุดในวันที่ 31 มีนาคม จะเป็นจุดต่ำสุดของการตกต่ำของเศรษฐกิจญี่ปุ่น นอกจากนั้นนักลงทุนยังมีความมั่นใจในแผนกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจมูลค่า 154,000 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯของ นายทาโร อาโสะ นายกรัฐมนตรี ซึ่งเป็นวงเงินมูลค่าสูงสุดในรอบปี ว่าจะสามารถป้องกันไม่ให้เศรษฐกิจญี่ปุ่นที่เผชิญกับภาวะการส่งออกลดลงอย่าง รุนแรง ตกต่ำลงไปกว่าที่เป็นอยู่
นายเคียวเฮ โมริตะ หัวหน้านักเศรษฐศาสตร์แห่งบริษัท บาร์เคลย์ แคปิตอล จำกัด กล่าวว่าสถานะในเดือนกุมภาพันธ์ที่ผ่านมาน่าจะเป็นจุดต่ำสุดของเศรษฐกิจแล้ว "แต่การฟื้นตัวจากจุดต่ำสุดไม่ได้หมายความว่าเศรษฐกิจจะฟื้นตัวอย่างมั่นคง"
นอกจากนั้นยังมีรายงานว่าบริษัทหลายแห่งมีแผนที่จะเพิ่มปริมาณผลผลิต หลังจากที่ได้ระบายสินค้าคงคลังออกไป และดัชนีความเชื่อมั่นในการค้าขายประจำเดือนมีนาคมไต่สู่ระดับสูงสุดในรอบ 8 เดือน นอกจากนั้นผู้ผลิตสินค้าคาดว่าบรรยากาศการดำเนินธุรกิจในช่วงไตรมาสถัดไปจะ ดีขึ้นกว่าที่เป็นอยู่ในเวลานี้
สถานการณ์เศรษฐกิจทั่วโลกมีแนวโน้มปรับตัวในทิศทางที่ดีขึ้นหลังจากรัฐบาล ของประเทศต่างๆได้อัดฉีดงบประมาณเพื่อกระตุ้นความต้องการสินค้า ในประเทศจีนปริมาณการลงทุนในอสังหาริมทรัพย์เพิ่มขึ้น 26.5% ในช่วง 2 เดือนแรกของปี 2552 ส่วนประเทศเกาหลีใต้ปรับลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยสู่ระดับ 2% หลังจากที่ปริมาณการผลิตสินค้าอุตสาหกรรมเพิ่มขึ้นและดัชนีความเชื่อมั่นของ ผู้ผลิตเพิ่มขึ้นสูงสุดในรอบ 5 เดือน
นายเบน เบอร์นานคี ผู้ว่าธนาคารกลางแห่งประเทศสหรัฐอเมริกา (เฟด) กล่าวในเดือนมีนาคมว่า ตนเองได้เห็น "การแตกหน่อ" ในตลาดการเงินบางแห่ง และเชื่อว่าความถดถอยของเศรษฐกิจ "จะบรรเทาลง"
ทั้งนี้สำนักงานคณะรัฐมนตรีของญี่ปุ่นได้ปรับเพิ่มตัวเลขประมาณการสั่งซื้อ เครื่องจักรเป็นครั้งแรกตั้งแต่เดือนพฤษภาคม 2550 และระบุว่าการขยายตัวของปริมาณการสั่งซื้อเครื่องจักรจะเพิ่มขึ้นเล็กน้อย แต่ในภาพรวมก็ยังอยู่ในทิศทางขาลง" อนึ่ง ก่อนหน้านี้ สำนักงาน ระบุว่ายอดสั่งซื้อเครื่องจักรในประเทศญี่ปุ่น "ลดลงอย่างรวดเร็ว"
http://www.thannews.th.com/detialNews.p ... issue=2418
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Is This Rally For Real?
Investors want to know if the stock market has turned a corner. And who better to ask than legendary investor Barton Biggs!
As you might know Bigg’s is somewhat bullish on the current market. In his Newsweek column Biggs writes “green shoots are appearing not just in the shrubbery but in sickly economies.”
In fact Biggs is impressed by the economic activity all around the world. He says as of last week he spotted 40 signs that the environment was starting to improve.
Biggs watches PMI numbers closely around the world. We won't get into those numbers here because the data can make your eyes glaze over.
But in a nutshell he interprets them to mean “global manufacturing is improving – it’s gone up for three straight month after 12 consecutive losses."
And that’s not all. Biggs also says consumer demand has strengthened, new orders are up and inventories have fallen to new lows. “The classic economic recovery begins with new orders and output rising, spending stabilizing, and inventories falling.”
It seems to Biggs that all those ducks are lining up in a row.
And that bodes well for stocks.
Why, you ask?
Because “the stock market is a very perceptive forecaster of the direction of the economy.” In other words, since the market is a leading indictor – and data shows initial signs of strength in economies all around the world, the market could have turned a critical corner.
Now Biggs isn’t wearing blinders. He tells Fast Money that there are still big concerns about retail and housing. And if something blows up in either area then all bets are off.
But short of that, he’s optimistic. Well cautiously optimistic.
What’s the bottom line? According to Barton Biggs, “this could be a cyclical bull market that takes us to 1050 or 1100 on the S&P—in other words the rally should hold.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30266944
Investors want to know if the stock market has turned a corner. And who better to ask than legendary investor Barton Biggs!
As you might know Bigg’s is somewhat bullish on the current market. In his Newsweek column Biggs writes “green shoots are appearing not just in the shrubbery but in sickly economies.”
In fact Biggs is impressed by the economic activity all around the world. He says as of last week he spotted 40 signs that the environment was starting to improve.
Biggs watches PMI numbers closely around the world. We won't get into those numbers here because the data can make your eyes glaze over.
But in a nutshell he interprets them to mean “global manufacturing is improving – it’s gone up for three straight month after 12 consecutive losses."
And that’s not all. Biggs also says consumer demand has strengthened, new orders are up and inventories have fallen to new lows. “The classic economic recovery begins with new orders and output rising, spending stabilizing, and inventories falling.”
It seems to Biggs that all those ducks are lining up in a row.
And that bodes well for stocks.
Why, you ask?
Because “the stock market is a very perceptive forecaster of the direction of the economy.” In other words, since the market is a leading indictor – and data shows initial signs of strength in economies all around the world, the market could have turned a critical corner.
Now Biggs isn’t wearing blinders. He tells Fast Money that there are still big concerns about retail and housing. And if something blows up in either area then all bets are off.
But short of that, he’s optimistic. Well cautiously optimistic.
What’s the bottom line? According to Barton Biggs, “this could be a cyclical bull market that takes us to 1050 or 1100 on the S&P—in other words the rally should hold.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30266944
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Wells Fargo CFO: Economy Has Encouraging Signs
The economy is not “out of the woods yet, but there are encouraging signs,” Howard Atkins, CFO of Wells Fargo, said in an interview with CNBC.
“We have signs that we are getting close to the bottom,” Atkins told CNBC. “We’ve got very low interest rates that’s stimulating a lot of refinancing activity, but it’s also stimulating some home purchases. About 20 to 25 percent of our mortgage originations in the first quarter were for new homes.”
Confirming an early earnings release two weeks ago, Wells Fargo [WFC 18.18 -0.63 (-3.35%) ] posted a record profit Wednesday of $3.05 billion in the first quarter.
The bank said that it was helped by its acquisition of Wachovia and a surge in the mortgage business.
“It was a record quarter, we had record profit, and record revenue growth," said Atkins in response to the profit news.
"We had good growth led by good mortgages. We had good overall credit quality in part because we’ve written off most of the bad loans of Wachovia when we did the acquisition in December,” said Atkins.
Atkins also said Wells Fargo is trying to focus on raising capital.
“We’re raising capital everyday by earning it,” he said. “That’s the focus of our company right now. The more earnings we can put on the books, the more we can keep the credit flowing in the economy which is what we’ve been doing. The rest will take care of itself.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30351999
The economy is not “out of the woods yet, but there are encouraging signs,” Howard Atkins, CFO of Wells Fargo, said in an interview with CNBC.
“We have signs that we are getting close to the bottom,” Atkins told CNBC. “We’ve got very low interest rates that’s stimulating a lot of refinancing activity, but it’s also stimulating some home purchases. About 20 to 25 percent of our mortgage originations in the first quarter were for new homes.”
Confirming an early earnings release two weeks ago, Wells Fargo [WFC 18.18 -0.63 (-3.35%) ] posted a record profit Wednesday of $3.05 billion in the first quarter.
The bank said that it was helped by its acquisition of Wachovia and a surge in the mortgage business.
“It was a record quarter, we had record profit, and record revenue growth," said Atkins in response to the profit news.
"We had good growth led by good mortgages. We had good overall credit quality in part because we’ve written off most of the bad loans of Wachovia when we did the acquisition in December,” said Atkins.
Atkins also said Wells Fargo is trying to focus on raising capital.
“We’re raising capital everyday by earning it,” he said. “That’s the focus of our company right now. The more earnings we can put on the books, the more we can keep the credit flowing in the economy which is what we’ve been doing. The rest will take care of itself.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30351999
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ศิษย์เซียน007
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โพสต์ที่ 8
คุณพี่LOSOซื้อเล่นรอบหรือถือยาวครับ และคาดว่าSET รอบนี้จะไปได้อีกไกลไหมครับ 
ผมเองคิดว่าจุดต่ำสุดใหม่น่าจะได้เห็นครับโดยพิจารณษจากกราฟดัชนี้Dow Jone ในช่วงเดอะเกรสดิเพรสชั่นทำจุดต่ำสุดใหม่ในปี1933แม้จะมีเด้งแรงๆบ้างในช่วงปี1930ที่ผู้คนยุคนั้นคิดว่าศก.น่าจะฟื้นตัว(น่าจะเหมือนช่วงเวลานี้) และที่น่าสนใจทางสถิติสำหรับผมก็คืออัตราการว่างงานสูงสุดในช่วงเดอะเกรส...นั้นอยู่ที่12%กว่าๆ ซึ่งมีความเป็นไปได้อย่างมากที่อัตราว่างงานของชาวสหรัฐในวิกฤตครั้งนี้จะซ้ำรอยประวัติศาสตร์ได้อย่างไม่ยากเย็นครับ :8)
ผมเองคิดว่าจุดต่ำสุดใหม่น่าจะได้เห็นครับโดยพิจารณษจากกราฟดัชนี้Dow Jone ในช่วงเดอะเกรสดิเพรสชั่นทำจุดต่ำสุดใหม่ในปี1933แม้จะมีเด้งแรงๆบ้างในช่วงปี1930ที่ผู้คนยุคนั้นคิดว่าศก.น่าจะฟื้นตัว(น่าจะเหมือนช่วงเวลานี้) และที่น่าสนใจทางสถิติสำหรับผมก็คืออัตราการว่างงานสูงสุดในช่วงเดอะเกรส...นั้นอยู่ที่12%กว่าๆ ซึ่งมีความเป็นไปได้อย่างมากที่อัตราว่างงานของชาวสหรัฐในวิกฤตครั้งนี้จะซ้ำรอยประวัติศาสตร์ได้อย่างไม่ยากเย็นครับ :8)
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ไม่มีใครเดาอนาคตได้ถูกต้อง 100% หรอกครับ
มองหลายๆปัจจัยก็ดี แต่ต้องระวังว่าหลักการจะกลายเป็นหลักเกินด้วยนะครับ
มีความสุขกับการลงทุนหุ้นคุณค่านะครับผม :D
มองหลายๆปัจจัยก็ดี แต่ต้องระวังว่าหลักการจะกลายเป็นหลักเกินด้วยนะครับ
มีความสุขกับการลงทุนหุ้นคุณค่านะครับผม :D
อย่าลืมให้เวลากับครอบครัว และสังคมรอบๆข้างของคุณนะครับ
มีสติ และมีความสุขกับการลงทุนนะครับผม
นักลงทุนที่เก่งที่สุดมิใช่คนที่ซื้อขายไวที่สุด
แต่คือคนที่นำสติกลับมาได้เร็วที่สุด
หลายครั้งส่งคำสั่งซื้อทางไปรษณีย์ได้ผลตอบแทนมากกว่าซื้อผ่านnetหากเราขาดสติ
มีสติ และมีความสุขกับการลงทุนนะครับผม
นักลงทุนที่เก่งที่สุดมิใช่คนที่ซื้อขายไวที่สุด
แต่คือคนที่นำสติกลับมาได้เร็วที่สุด
หลายครั้งส่งคำสั่งซื้อทางไปรษณีย์ได้ผลตอบแทนมากกว่าซื้อผ่านnetหากเราขาดสติ
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ศิษย์เซียน007
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Buy Cyclical Stocks as Worst Is Past,
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เป็นอย่างที่คุณหมอnoooon010 บอกครับว่าไม่มีใครเดาอนาคตได้ถูกต้อง 100% หรอกครับ
ผมเดาว่าสัญญาณNPLที่มีการเร่งตัวขึ้นในกลุ่มแบงค์ยักษ์ใหญ่ของสหรัฐแม้ว่า2เดือนแรกจะสามารถพลิกกลับมาทำกำไรได้บ้างแล้ว จะก็บั่นทอนความสามารถในการปล่อยสินเชื่อต่อไป(น้อยกว่าภาวะปกติ) เมื่อรวมกลับศก.โลกที่อยู่ในภาวะถดถอยและในอนาคตคงจะมีเรื่องการกีดกันทางการค้าเข้ามาด้วย คงจะทำให้อัตราการว่างงานจะสูงได้ไม่ยาก ก่อนที่การสร้างงานของภาครัฐจะเป็นรูปธรรมครับ
ผมเดาว่าสัญญาณNPLที่มีการเร่งตัวขึ้นในกลุ่มแบงค์ยักษ์ใหญ่ของสหรัฐแม้ว่า2เดือนแรกจะสามารถพลิกกลับมาทำกำไรได้บ้างแล้ว จะก็บั่นทอนความสามารถในการปล่อยสินเชื่อต่อไป(น้อยกว่าภาวะปกติ) เมื่อรวมกลับศก.โลกที่อยู่ในภาวะถดถอยและในอนาคตคงจะมีเรื่องการกีดกันทางการค้าเข้ามาด้วย คงจะทำให้อัตราการว่างงานจะสูงได้ไม่ยาก ก่อนที่การสร้างงานของภาครัฐจะเป็นรูปธรรมครับ
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LOSO
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Buy Cyclical Stocks as Worst Is Past,
โพสต์ที่ 13
US Treasury's Geithner Says Downturn May Be Easing
The global economic downturn has shown signs of easing in recent weeks, although significant risks remain, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said before a meeting of G20 officials in Washington on Friday.
Writing in the Financial Times newspaper, Geithner said the decline in world trade may be abating and conditions in some financial markets have improved.
However, he warned that the 2009 outlook was challenging, with the global economy expected to shrink for the first time in six decades and world trade forecast to suffer the worst collapse since World War Two.
"In recent weeks, there have been some encouraging signs that the global economic downturn may be slackening," he wrote. "Conditions in some financial markets have improved and the decline in world trade may be abating."
He urged leaders of the G20 group of rich and developing nations to "keep at this process of repair and reform" to help the recovery.
Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7, which groups the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, meet on Friday afternoon before an evening gathering of the larger Group of 20 that includes key emerging market countries like China, India, Brazil and South Korea.
"The G20 nations must follow through on their commitment to deliver the fiscal, monetary and financial policies necessary to restore growth," Geithner wrote.
The United States has moved aggressively to stabilise and fix its financial system and restore credit flows, he added.
Most other countries will follow suit in a collective fiscal response by the G20 for 2008-10 estimated by the international Monetary Fund (IMF) to be worth $5,000 billion, he said.
"Our task now is to ensure the effective implementation of these programmes and to narrow the growth shortfall," Geithner wrote. "The IMF must be proactive in holding our feet to the fire of our good intentions."
Plans to put in place $250 billion to support the IMF are substantially completed and the IMF has taken the first steps toward allocating $250 billion of Special Drawing Rights.
"Real progress requires time, and significant risks and challenges remain," Geithner added. "Thus, it is critical that we continue to act together to strengthen the basis for global recovery."
The global economic downturn has shown signs of easing in recent weeks, although significant risks remain, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said before a meeting of G20 officials in Washington on Friday.
Writing in the Financial Times newspaper, Geithner said the decline in world trade may be abating and conditions in some financial markets have improved.
However, he warned that the 2009 outlook was challenging, with the global economy expected to shrink for the first time in six decades and world trade forecast to suffer the worst collapse since World War Two.
"In recent weeks, there have been some encouraging signs that the global economic downturn may be slackening," he wrote. "Conditions in some financial markets have improved and the decline in world trade may be abating."
He urged leaders of the G20 group of rich and developing nations to "keep at this process of repair and reform" to help the recovery.
Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7, which groups the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, meet on Friday afternoon before an evening gathering of the larger Group of 20 that includes key emerging market countries like China, India, Brazil and South Korea.
"The G20 nations must follow through on their commitment to deliver the fiscal, monetary and financial policies necessary to restore growth," Geithner wrote.
The United States has moved aggressively to stabilise and fix its financial system and restore credit flows, he added.
Most other countries will follow suit in a collective fiscal response by the G20 for 2008-10 estimated by the international Monetary Fund (IMF) to be worth $5,000 billion, he said.
"Our task now is to ensure the effective implementation of these programmes and to narrow the growth shortfall," Geithner wrote. "The IMF must be proactive in holding our feet to the fire of our good intentions."
Plans to put in place $250 billion to support the IMF are substantially completed and the IMF has taken the first steps toward allocating $250 billion of Special Drawing Rights.
"Real progress requires time, and significant risks and challenges remain," Geithner added. "Thus, it is critical that we continue to act together to strengthen the basis for global recovery."
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Bullish Commodities Stocks
Out of their dismal lows in early March, the stock markets rocketed 27% higher in a single month! After such fast gains, Wall Street remained skeptical. Was this a typical bear rally that would soon collapse? But as the last couple weeks have shown, it didn't. Stocks not only held their rally gains, but they continued moving higher.
The result is the biggest advance since the stock panic ignited. Even more importantly, these recent gains have generally been measured and orderly. This is a signature of new bull markets in contrast to the violent and short-lived bear-market rallies. The persistent stock-market strength is restoring hope and leading ostrich investors back to the markets. They are wondering which sectors have the best potential to thrive.
For a variety of reasons I'll outline in this essay, I believe the commodities stocks will be the best-performing sector in the coming years. Their incredibly bullish fundamentals, combined with dirt-cheap prices driven by stock-panic psychology, have created one of the greatest investment opportunities I've ever seen. This bullish sector deserves a sizable fraction of every investor's portfolio.
In order to grasp commodities stocks' epic potential, you first have to consider the products they produce. Commodities are essential to everyday life. Everything physical in your world, from the home you live in to the energy that moves you around to the food you eat, is made from commodities. Without a never-ending flow of these raw materials, the vast majority of the world's population (everyone without hardcore survival skills) would soon be dead.
Thus perpetual demand exists for commodities. And this demand is growing globally. We in America are used to an incredibly rich standard of living fueled by heavy raw-materials consumption. And at least half the world, primarily Asia, is zealously striving to close the gigantic gap between its own standards of living and those we enjoy in the first world. The unstoppable juggernaut of Asian industrialization alone will consume commodities at levels far beyond anything ever before witnessed.
The resulting secular (long-term) commodities bull has already been exceedingly profitable to early investors like us. And it is far from over. The more Asians and Africans and South Americans taste better qualities of life for their families, the harder they work to accelerate their rate of material advancement. While their per-capita commodities consumption remains small relative to ours, their aggregate consumption is already enormous. Soon it will probably exceed that of the first world, if it hasn't already.
In the stock markets, any company's fundamentals are defined by its future profitability. If it has the potential to grow profits, if demand for its products is likely to expand, its fundamentals are bullish. And few other companies enjoy such a guaranteed growing market as commodities producers. While demand for the latest technology gadget or pharmaceutical will collapse as soon as something better comes along, the world will always need the basic building blocks of our physical existence such as copper or fertilizer.
Even better for commodities producers, supply is constrained no matter how fast demand grows. Producing more metal is not like adding a factory to make more iPods. It is vastly more challenging. Between exploration for new deposits, planning and permitting mines, financing and building mines, and actually bringing new commodities to market takes over a decade. Sometimes multiple decades! So no matter how fast rising demand drives up prices, the natural supply response takes many years to unfold.
You certainly don't have to take my word for the bullish nature of commodities fundamentals. The best commodities index is the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI). Once known as the CRB Index, it tracks the prices of 17 key commodities. With these components equally weighted and geometrically averaged, the CCI beautifully reflects overall commodities price trends. Here is a chart of the CCI (blue line) since 2001.
[img]
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/7176 ... 212514.png[/img]
Between late 2001 and mid-2008 (just before the stock panic), the CCI soared 235% higher! Over this same span, the stock markets (S&P 500) merely rose 16%. As I predicted in early 2001, commodities have indeed entered a secular bull that radically outperformed the stock markets. And due to the profits leverage inherent in producing commodities, the commodities stocks have fared even better.
Any company producing a commodity has a roughly fixed cost of production. Consider copper as an example. If a company can mine copper for $1 a pound, and its price is $2, it can earn a $1 profit for each pound it sells. But if copper rallies 50% to $3, this company's profits don't just march up 50% with copper. Instead they double. Still producing at $1 yet selling at $3 yields a $2 profit, twice as high. Thanks to this accelerating profits leverage, profits for producing rise far faster than underlying commodities prices.
As this CCI chart reveals, speculators did flood into commodities in early 2008. After more than 6 years of rallying with little fanfare, mainstream investors finally started getting interested in commodities stocks in late 2007. But in early 2008 commodities grew overbought and due for a correction, and it started last July before the stock panic hit. Yet still in August 2008, the last pre-panic month, the CCI averaged 518 on close, oil $117, and copper $3.46. And then the storm of a lifetime slammed into the markets.
It was the first true stock panic witnessed in 101 years! The key characteristic of a panic is inherent in its dictionary definition. "A sudden widespread fear concerning financial affairs leading to credit contraction and widespread sale of securities at depressed prices in an effort to acquire cash." The stock panic's fear bubble soon engulfed commodities and commodities stocks, as traders dumped both in a frantic effort to move capital out of harm's way into cash.
So instead of merely retreating to its secular support line drawn above (450), the panic selling drove the CCI down under 350. This plunge was the fastest and largest decline in commodities prices ever witnessed, even dwarfing the Great Depression's declines! By the time the dust settled, the CCI had retreated to November 2005 levels. This sounds bad, and it was. But realize the 37-month lows in commodities prices were nothing compared to the recent 150-month lows seen in the stock markets.
Commodities prices handily outperformed the stock markets during the epic stock panic. Unfortunately, due to a popular yet misleading commodities index not a lot of traders realize this. The financial media follows today's CRB index (red line above), which was actually created in mid-2005 as a radical departure from CRB history. Now dominated by oil, this new tenth-revision CRB isn't comparable to any history prior to its creation. So please don't be fooled by this misleading new CRB, it is a false witness to investors.
Even though commodities prices held up better than the stock markets, retracing less ground, commodities stocks were disproportionately hammered. Investors and speculators, scared to death by the stock panic anyway, were further frightened by the plunging commodities prices. Their frantic and mindless selling drove the stock prices of the biggest and best commodities producers on the planet to impossibly low levels. In some cases, these companies' entire bull markets were nearly erased at the panic's climax!
While painful and frustrating for us existing commodities-stock investors, this once-in-a-lifetime fear bubble drove the greatest bargains I've ever witnessed deep within a secular bull. In early November in our subscription newsletter we bought and recommended long-term investments in the world's largest gold miner, one of its biggest and best copper miners, an oil major actually discovering massive new oil finds, and one of the most elite silver producers. These investments soon thrived even while the stock slump lingered.
The stock markets carved their initial fear-driven panic low in late November, but they slumped to a secondary despair-driven low in early March. The flagship S&P 500 stock index was down 10% over this span. Yet commodities stocks thrived while general stocks languished. Unfortunately there aren't any excellent general commodities-stock indexes yet, so I have to use individual stocks to illustrate this.
Over the exact stock-market low-to-low span, BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner, rallied 48%. The elite oil major Petrobras climbed 78%. Giant copper miner Freeport-McMoRan surged 84%. Elite gold and silver market darlings Goldcorp and Silver Wheaton powered 48% and 140% higher. These gains were to the very day of the lower S&P 500 lows, very impressive. In the interest of disclosure, we have long-term investment positions in each of these companies, and have recommended our subscribers do the same.
So even in early 2009, a very difficult time in the stock markets, commodities stocks have already been performing exceedingly well. Both in an absolute sense and certainly relative to the general markets. But the opportunities have not vanished. The price anomalies in commodities and commodities stocks created by the stock panic's unbelievably intense fear still persist to this day. In fact for most commodities and their producers' stocks, not even half of the panic anomalies have yet been erased.
As many on Wall Street argue, there is no doubt we live in a different world since the panic. It might be years yet before we see commodities prices return to their lofty summer 2008 levels. But commodities-stock prices are still so beaten up that they don't need to see those stellar commodities prices again in order to thrive. And commodities prices will establish new post-panic equilibriums above today's levels.
Why won't today's low commodities prices persist? There are many reasons but several major ones more than make this case. Long-term commodities prices must exceed their costs of production, enormous monetary inflation is baked into the pipeline, and the ascent of the developing world will continue.
Like any business, commodities producers need to operate at profits. If they can't produce their commodities at a profitable price, they'll slow or stop production at their key operations. Many commodities today are trading near or under their average global costs of production, so producers are reacting accordingly. And unlike building new mines, it only takes months to scale back production. This natural free-market mechanism soon reduces supplies which results in higher commodities prices.
Like everything else, commodities prices are also affected by the supply of money. When money supplies increase faster than commodities supplies, commodities prices rise as relatively more money bids on relatively less commodities. Across the globe, governments have been ramping monetary growth tremendously in their attempts to fight the financial panic. In the US alone, the Federal Reserve has doubled our monetary base in less than a year! Big inflation is coming, which will result in higher commodities prices as always.
And the panic's slowing impact on demand won't persist for long. Even before the panic, governments around the world were spending hundreds of billions on building infrastructure. This has accelerated dramatically since the panic as governments try to goose their economies. And around the world, hard-working ordinary folks like you and me haven't given up on their dreams of a better life for their families. The developing world will continue its long-term trend of greater per-capita commodities consumption.
Because of these factors and many more, commodities prices are not doomed to forever languish near their panic lows. They have already started rising back up towards a new equilibrium. I'm not talking lofty summer-2008 speculation-driven levels of course, but some happy medium between there and the panic lows. I suspect it will end up within the CCI's secular uptrend, say around 500 on this index. This is 35% above today's levels.
Commodities stocks' reactions to this normalization of commodities prices to underlying global supply-and-demand trends should be impressive to say the least. Their famous profits leverage will come into effect, with the best producers' profits growth (and hence stock prices) multiplying the underlying gains in the commodities they produce. But first over the near term another extremely bullish factor will come into play.
Thanks to the horribly pessimistic psychology of the stock panic, many commodities stocks are not even reflecting today's prevailing commodities prices let alone future ones. In the heart of the panic their stock prices were driven far lower than commodities prices warranted, and they have not yet recovered sufficiently to close this gap. Thus even if commodities prices flatlined going forward, commodities stocks are generally too cheap. Gold stocks are a fantastic example.
For 5 full years prior to the stock panic, the flagship HUI gold-stock index averaged just over half the price of gold. And the resulting 0.51x ratio of the HUI level to the gold price was established in a tight and consistent secular trading range. But the stock panic temporarily blew this relationship between the gold stocks, and the metal they produce (which drives their profits and hence stock prices) all out of whack.
In the depths of the panic, the gold stocks were sold off so aggressively that the HUI reflected a gold price of $350! Yet gold itself never fell below the low $700s in the panic. This decoupling phenomenon occurred in many commodities stocks, where irrational fear drove them to levels far below what then-prevailing commodities prices warranted. While this anomaly is gradually being rectified, it still persists even today.
In gold stocks' case, so far in April the HUI has been reflecting a gold price of $585. Yet gold itself has averaged $885 this month! Gold stocks are still far too cheap relative to gold today, let alone where it goes in the future due to soaring worldwide investment demand and unprecedented fiat-currency inflation. Many producers of other commodities share in this panic-induced undervaluation, they have far to rally merely to reflect today's commodities prices.
For all these reasons, commodities stocks have great potential going forward. I suspect that a year from now, 2 years from now, investors will look back at this still-neglected sector and marvel at its stock-price appreciation since. And this is really saying something, since the best years stock markets ever witness in history occur immediately after the worst years. So after the disastrous 2008, 2009 is due to be a huge up year (approaching 50%) for the general stock markets. Commodities stocks should easily double, triple, or quadruple these already large stock-market gains!
If you are interested in riding this accelerating post-panic commodities-stock rally, the resumption of this sector's secular bull, you'd love our work at Zeal. We've been intensely researching, and actively investing and speculating in, this sector since 2001. We have unparalleled experience in trading commodities stocks in this secular bull. And we share our world-renowned work and resulting high-potential stock picks with our subscribers in the form of acclaimed subscription newsletters.
Subscribe today to deepen your market knowledge and wisdom and to capitalize on handpicked commodities-stock opportunities going forward! You too can profit from the fruits of our labors and build a better financial future for your family.
The bottom line is commodities stocks probably have the most bullish fundamentals of any stock-market sector. They produce the physical building blocks of all the world's necessities. They have a guaranteed and endlessly growing global market for their products. And the underlying commodities fundamentals virtually ensure higher commodities prices and hence higher profits for production in the years ahead.
In early 2008, many investors feared this unprecedented bull market (Asia has never universally industrialized before) had left them behind. But the once-in-a-lifetime stock panic temporarily slashed commodities and commodities-stock prices so severely that buying now is almost as attractive as getting in on the ground floor back in the early 2000s. This sector is still due to outperform for many years to come.
Adam Hamilton, CPA
April 24, 2009
Out of their dismal lows in early March, the stock markets rocketed 27% higher in a single month! After such fast gains, Wall Street remained skeptical. Was this a typical bear rally that would soon collapse? But as the last couple weeks have shown, it didn't. Stocks not only held their rally gains, but they continued moving higher.
The result is the biggest advance since the stock panic ignited. Even more importantly, these recent gains have generally been measured and orderly. This is a signature of new bull markets in contrast to the violent and short-lived bear-market rallies. The persistent stock-market strength is restoring hope and leading ostrich investors back to the markets. They are wondering which sectors have the best potential to thrive.
For a variety of reasons I'll outline in this essay, I believe the commodities stocks will be the best-performing sector in the coming years. Their incredibly bullish fundamentals, combined with dirt-cheap prices driven by stock-panic psychology, have created one of the greatest investment opportunities I've ever seen. This bullish sector deserves a sizable fraction of every investor's portfolio.
In order to grasp commodities stocks' epic potential, you first have to consider the products they produce. Commodities are essential to everyday life. Everything physical in your world, from the home you live in to the energy that moves you around to the food you eat, is made from commodities. Without a never-ending flow of these raw materials, the vast majority of the world's population (everyone without hardcore survival skills) would soon be dead.
Thus perpetual demand exists for commodities. And this demand is growing globally. We in America are used to an incredibly rich standard of living fueled by heavy raw-materials consumption. And at least half the world, primarily Asia, is zealously striving to close the gigantic gap between its own standards of living and those we enjoy in the first world. The unstoppable juggernaut of Asian industrialization alone will consume commodities at levels far beyond anything ever before witnessed.
The resulting secular (long-term) commodities bull has already been exceedingly profitable to early investors like us. And it is far from over. The more Asians and Africans and South Americans taste better qualities of life for their families, the harder they work to accelerate their rate of material advancement. While their per-capita commodities consumption remains small relative to ours, their aggregate consumption is already enormous. Soon it will probably exceed that of the first world, if it hasn't already.
In the stock markets, any company's fundamentals are defined by its future profitability. If it has the potential to grow profits, if demand for its products is likely to expand, its fundamentals are bullish. And few other companies enjoy such a guaranteed growing market as commodities producers. While demand for the latest technology gadget or pharmaceutical will collapse as soon as something better comes along, the world will always need the basic building blocks of our physical existence such as copper or fertilizer.
Even better for commodities producers, supply is constrained no matter how fast demand grows. Producing more metal is not like adding a factory to make more iPods. It is vastly more challenging. Between exploration for new deposits, planning and permitting mines, financing and building mines, and actually bringing new commodities to market takes over a decade. Sometimes multiple decades! So no matter how fast rising demand drives up prices, the natural supply response takes many years to unfold.
You certainly don't have to take my word for the bullish nature of commodities fundamentals. The best commodities index is the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI). Once known as the CRB Index, it tracks the prices of 17 key commodities. With these components equally weighted and geometrically averaged, the CCI beautifully reflects overall commodities price trends. Here is a chart of the CCI (blue line) since 2001.
[img]
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/7176 ... 212514.png[/img]
Between late 2001 and mid-2008 (just before the stock panic), the CCI soared 235% higher! Over this same span, the stock markets (S&P 500) merely rose 16%. As I predicted in early 2001, commodities have indeed entered a secular bull that radically outperformed the stock markets. And due to the profits leverage inherent in producing commodities, the commodities stocks have fared even better.
Any company producing a commodity has a roughly fixed cost of production. Consider copper as an example. If a company can mine copper for $1 a pound, and its price is $2, it can earn a $1 profit for each pound it sells. But if copper rallies 50% to $3, this company's profits don't just march up 50% with copper. Instead they double. Still producing at $1 yet selling at $3 yields a $2 profit, twice as high. Thanks to this accelerating profits leverage, profits for producing rise far faster than underlying commodities prices.
As this CCI chart reveals, speculators did flood into commodities in early 2008. After more than 6 years of rallying with little fanfare, mainstream investors finally started getting interested in commodities stocks in late 2007. But in early 2008 commodities grew overbought and due for a correction, and it started last July before the stock panic hit. Yet still in August 2008, the last pre-panic month, the CCI averaged 518 on close, oil $117, and copper $3.46. And then the storm of a lifetime slammed into the markets.
It was the first true stock panic witnessed in 101 years! The key characteristic of a panic is inherent in its dictionary definition. "A sudden widespread fear concerning financial affairs leading to credit contraction and widespread sale of securities at depressed prices in an effort to acquire cash." The stock panic's fear bubble soon engulfed commodities and commodities stocks, as traders dumped both in a frantic effort to move capital out of harm's way into cash.
So instead of merely retreating to its secular support line drawn above (450), the panic selling drove the CCI down under 350. This plunge was the fastest and largest decline in commodities prices ever witnessed, even dwarfing the Great Depression's declines! By the time the dust settled, the CCI had retreated to November 2005 levels. This sounds bad, and it was. But realize the 37-month lows in commodities prices were nothing compared to the recent 150-month lows seen in the stock markets.
Commodities prices handily outperformed the stock markets during the epic stock panic. Unfortunately, due to a popular yet misleading commodities index not a lot of traders realize this. The financial media follows today's CRB index (red line above), which was actually created in mid-2005 as a radical departure from CRB history. Now dominated by oil, this new tenth-revision CRB isn't comparable to any history prior to its creation. So please don't be fooled by this misleading new CRB, it is a false witness to investors.
Even though commodities prices held up better than the stock markets, retracing less ground, commodities stocks were disproportionately hammered. Investors and speculators, scared to death by the stock panic anyway, were further frightened by the plunging commodities prices. Their frantic and mindless selling drove the stock prices of the biggest and best commodities producers on the planet to impossibly low levels. In some cases, these companies' entire bull markets were nearly erased at the panic's climax!
While painful and frustrating for us existing commodities-stock investors, this once-in-a-lifetime fear bubble drove the greatest bargains I've ever witnessed deep within a secular bull. In early November in our subscription newsletter we bought and recommended long-term investments in the world's largest gold miner, one of its biggest and best copper miners, an oil major actually discovering massive new oil finds, and one of the most elite silver producers. These investments soon thrived even while the stock slump lingered.
The stock markets carved their initial fear-driven panic low in late November, but they slumped to a secondary despair-driven low in early March. The flagship S&P 500 stock index was down 10% over this span. Yet commodities stocks thrived while general stocks languished. Unfortunately there aren't any excellent general commodities-stock indexes yet, so I have to use individual stocks to illustrate this.
Over the exact stock-market low-to-low span, BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner, rallied 48%. The elite oil major Petrobras climbed 78%. Giant copper miner Freeport-McMoRan surged 84%. Elite gold and silver market darlings Goldcorp and Silver Wheaton powered 48% and 140% higher. These gains were to the very day of the lower S&P 500 lows, very impressive. In the interest of disclosure, we have long-term investment positions in each of these companies, and have recommended our subscribers do the same.
So even in early 2009, a very difficult time in the stock markets, commodities stocks have already been performing exceedingly well. Both in an absolute sense and certainly relative to the general markets. But the opportunities have not vanished. The price anomalies in commodities and commodities stocks created by the stock panic's unbelievably intense fear still persist to this day. In fact for most commodities and their producers' stocks, not even half of the panic anomalies have yet been erased.
As many on Wall Street argue, there is no doubt we live in a different world since the panic. It might be years yet before we see commodities prices return to their lofty summer 2008 levels. But commodities-stock prices are still so beaten up that they don't need to see those stellar commodities prices again in order to thrive. And commodities prices will establish new post-panic equilibriums above today's levels.
Why won't today's low commodities prices persist? There are many reasons but several major ones more than make this case. Long-term commodities prices must exceed their costs of production, enormous monetary inflation is baked into the pipeline, and the ascent of the developing world will continue.
Like any business, commodities producers need to operate at profits. If they can't produce their commodities at a profitable price, they'll slow or stop production at their key operations. Many commodities today are trading near or under their average global costs of production, so producers are reacting accordingly. And unlike building new mines, it only takes months to scale back production. This natural free-market mechanism soon reduces supplies which results in higher commodities prices.
Like everything else, commodities prices are also affected by the supply of money. When money supplies increase faster than commodities supplies, commodities prices rise as relatively more money bids on relatively less commodities. Across the globe, governments have been ramping monetary growth tremendously in their attempts to fight the financial panic. In the US alone, the Federal Reserve has doubled our monetary base in less than a year! Big inflation is coming, which will result in higher commodities prices as always.
And the panic's slowing impact on demand won't persist for long. Even before the panic, governments around the world were spending hundreds of billions on building infrastructure. This has accelerated dramatically since the panic as governments try to goose their economies. And around the world, hard-working ordinary folks like you and me haven't given up on their dreams of a better life for their families. The developing world will continue its long-term trend of greater per-capita commodities consumption.
Because of these factors and many more, commodities prices are not doomed to forever languish near their panic lows. They have already started rising back up towards a new equilibrium. I'm not talking lofty summer-2008 speculation-driven levels of course, but some happy medium between there and the panic lows. I suspect it will end up within the CCI's secular uptrend, say around 500 on this index. This is 35% above today's levels.
Commodities stocks' reactions to this normalization of commodities prices to underlying global supply-and-demand trends should be impressive to say the least. Their famous profits leverage will come into effect, with the best producers' profits growth (and hence stock prices) multiplying the underlying gains in the commodities they produce. But first over the near term another extremely bullish factor will come into play.
Thanks to the horribly pessimistic psychology of the stock panic, many commodities stocks are not even reflecting today's prevailing commodities prices let alone future ones. In the heart of the panic their stock prices were driven far lower than commodities prices warranted, and they have not yet recovered sufficiently to close this gap. Thus even if commodities prices flatlined going forward, commodities stocks are generally too cheap. Gold stocks are a fantastic example.
For 5 full years prior to the stock panic, the flagship HUI gold-stock index averaged just over half the price of gold. And the resulting 0.51x ratio of the HUI level to the gold price was established in a tight and consistent secular trading range. But the stock panic temporarily blew this relationship between the gold stocks, and the metal they produce (which drives their profits and hence stock prices) all out of whack.
In the depths of the panic, the gold stocks were sold off so aggressively that the HUI reflected a gold price of $350! Yet gold itself never fell below the low $700s in the panic. This decoupling phenomenon occurred in many commodities stocks, where irrational fear drove them to levels far below what then-prevailing commodities prices warranted. While this anomaly is gradually being rectified, it still persists even today.
In gold stocks' case, so far in April the HUI has been reflecting a gold price of $585. Yet gold itself has averaged $885 this month! Gold stocks are still far too cheap relative to gold today, let alone where it goes in the future due to soaring worldwide investment demand and unprecedented fiat-currency inflation. Many producers of other commodities share in this panic-induced undervaluation, they have far to rally merely to reflect today's commodities prices.
For all these reasons, commodities stocks have great potential going forward. I suspect that a year from now, 2 years from now, investors will look back at this still-neglected sector and marvel at its stock-price appreciation since. And this is really saying something, since the best years stock markets ever witness in history occur immediately after the worst years. So after the disastrous 2008, 2009 is due to be a huge up year (approaching 50%) for the general stock markets. Commodities stocks should easily double, triple, or quadruple these already large stock-market gains!
If you are interested in riding this accelerating post-panic commodities-stock rally, the resumption of this sector's secular bull, you'd love our work at Zeal. We've been intensely researching, and actively investing and speculating in, this sector since 2001. We have unparalleled experience in trading commodities stocks in this secular bull. And we share our world-renowned work and resulting high-potential stock picks with our subscribers in the form of acclaimed subscription newsletters.
Subscribe today to deepen your market knowledge and wisdom and to capitalize on handpicked commodities-stock opportunities going forward! You too can profit from the fruits of our labors and build a better financial future for your family.
The bottom line is commodities stocks probably have the most bullish fundamentals of any stock-market sector. They produce the physical building blocks of all the world's necessities. They have a guaranteed and endlessly growing global market for their products. And the underlying commodities fundamentals virtually ensure higher commodities prices and hence higher profits for production in the years ahead.
In early 2008, many investors feared this unprecedented bull market (Asia has never universally industrialized before) had left them behind. But the once-in-a-lifetime stock panic temporarily slashed commodities and commodities-stock prices so severely that buying now is almost as attractive as getting in on the ground floor back in the early 2000s. This sector is still due to outperform for many years to come.
Adam Hamilton, CPA
April 24, 2009
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วันที่ 26 เมษายน 2552 19:02
ธปท.เผยเอกชนเชื่อศก.ไทยฟื้นตัวไตรมาส4
โดย : กรุงเทพธุรกิจออนไลน์
ธปท.เผยผลสำรวจภาคเอกชนทั่วประเทศ เชื่อเศรษฐกิจไทยฟื้นตัวในไตรมาส 4 ของปีนี้ แต่ยังห่วงสถานการณ์ศก.โลก-ปัญหาการเมืองในประเทศ
รายงานข่าวจากธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย (ธปท.) เปิดเผยผลสำรวจโครงการแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจ ระหว่าง ธปท. และสมาคมธุรกิจในสาขาต่างๆ ทั่วประเทศจำนวน 182 ราย ในช่วงไตรมาสที่ 1 ของปี 2552 พบว่า นักธุรกิจส่วนใหญ่ก็คาดว่า เศรษฐกิจไทยจะสามารถฟื้นตัวในราวไตรมาสที่ 4 ของปี 2552
ทั้งนี้ ในช่วงที่ผ่านมาผู้ประกอบการได้ปรับตัวโดยการเพิ่มประสิทธิภาพ และลดต้นทุนการผลิตการบริหารสินค้าคงคลังให้มีประสิทธิภาพมากขึ้น
นอกจากนี้ ยังมีการแสวงหาตลาดใหม่ ผู้ประกอบการต้องลดต้นทุนด้านแรงงานลง โดยเริ่มจากการลดเวลาการทำงาน และลดแรงงานประเภท ลูกจ้างชั่วคราวลง และพยายามรักษาแรงงานมีฝีมือไว้ให้นานที่สุด เพื่อให้สามารถเพิ่มการผลิตได้ทันทีในกรณีที่มีคำสั่งซื้อกลับมา
สำหรับแรงงานที่ถูกเลิกจ้างจากโรงงานอุตสาหกรรมที่ต้องปิดกิจการ บางส่วนได้รับการรองรับจากโรงงานอุตสหกรรมบางส่วนที่ยังคงขาดแคลนแรงงาน และบางส่วนย้ายกลับไปภาคเกษตร
อย่างไรก็ตาม วิกฤตเศรษฐกิจโลกส่งผลกระทบต่อเศรษฐกิจใน ประเทศอย่างต่อเนื่อง ตั้งแต่ไตรมาสที่ 4 ของปี 2551 จนส่งผลให้ภาวะธุรกิจโดยรวมยังชะลอตัวจนถึงหดตัวในบางธุรกิจ โดยเฉพาะภาคการผลิตสินค้าคงทนที่พึ่งพิงตลาดต่างประเทศเป็นหลัก
นอกจากนี้ ในระยะต่อไปผู้ประกอบการคาดว่าการอุปโภค การลงทุน และการส่งออกจะชะลอตัวต่อเนื่อง โดยภาคเอกชนจะชะลอตัวอย่างต่อเนื่องจากไตรมาสก่อนตามการหดตัวของภาวะเศรษฐกิจโดย รวม และความเชื่อมั่นของผู้บริโภคที่อยู่ในระดับต่ำ สะท้อนจากการหดตัวของยอดตำหน่ายสินค้าของธุรกิจต่างๆ โดยเฉพาะในหมวดอสังหาริมทรัพย์ และหมวดการบริโภคสินค้าคงทน
ธปท.ระบุว่า การลงทุนภาคเอกชน หดตัวอย่างต่อเนื่องจากไตรมาสก่อน แม้ว่าปัญหาการเมืองภายในประเทศจะคลี่คลายลงบ้าง แต่วิกฤตเศรษฐกิจโลก ส่งผลให้อุปสงค์ในและต่างประเทศลดลงอย่างมาก ทำให้ธุรกิจลดปริมาณการผลิตลง และมีกำลังการผลิตเหลือมาก ประกอบกับนักลงทุนขาดความเชื่อมั่น มาตรฐานการให้สินเชื่อที่เข้มงวดมากขึ้น รวมทั้งนโยบายด้านสิ่งแวดล้อมทำให้ธุรกิจชะลอการลงทุนออกไป
ขณะที่ภาคการส่งออกชะลอตัวต่อเนื่องตามอุปสงค์ของประเทศคู่ค้า ส่งผลให้การผลิตโดยเฉพาะกลุ่มอุตสาหกรรมที่ผลิตเพื่อการส่งออกเป็นหลักลด ปริมาณการผลิตลง โดยอุตสาหกรรมที่ได้รับผลกระทบมากที่สุดคือ สินค้าอิเล็กทรอนิกส์และเครื่องไฟฟ้า ยานยนต์และชิ้นส่วนยานยนต์ อาหารแปรรูป และสิ่งทอ
ภาคการผลิตไตรมาส 1 ปี นี้ผู้ประกอบการแทบทุกประเภทสินค้าลดปริมาณการผลิตลงตามอุปสงค์ที่ชะลอตัว สอดคล้องกับการนำเข้าวัตถุดิบที่ลดลง โดยผู้ประกอบการต้องการระบายสินค้าคงคลังที่อยู่ในระดับสูงออกไปก่อนเพื่อลด ต้นทุน และรักษาสภาพคล่องทางการเงิน
อย่างไรก็ตาม เป็นที่น่าสังเกตว่าดัชนีผู้ผลิตอุตสาหกรรมเริ่มทรงตัวตั้งแต่เดือนมกราคม และเริ่มมีคำสั่งซื้อในไตรมาส 2 กลับเข้ามาในบางอุตสาหกรรม เช่น ฮาร์ดดิสไดร์ สะท้อนว่าอุปสงค์และอุปทานกำลังปรับตัวเข้าสู่ภาวะปกติ
ขณะที่การเข้าถึงสินเชื่อ ผลจากมาตรฐานการให้สินเชื่อมีความเข้มงวดมากขึ้นจากความกังวลด้านคุณภาพสิน เชื่อ ขณะที่ผู้ประกอบการบางส่วนต้องการสินเชื่อเพื่อขยายการลงทุน และสินเชื่อหมุนเวียนลดลงตามคำสั่งซื้อและการผลิตที่ลดลง
สำหรับปัจจัยเสี่ยงและอุปสงค์ในการดำเนินภาคธุรกิจ ก็คือ ความไม่แน่นอนของภาวะเศรษฐกิจต่าง ประเทศที่อาจชะลอยาวนานกว่าที่คาดการณ์ไว้ และการแข่งขันที่รุนแรงขึ้นของตลาดในประเทศ ตลอดจนปัญหาความไม่แน่นอนทางการเมืองในประเทศ ส่วนปัจจัยเสี่ยงด้านต้นทุนผ่อนคลายลงมากจากราคาน้ำมัน และวัตถุดิบที่ลดลง
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ธปท.เผยเอกชนเชื่อศก.ไทยฟื้นตัวไตรมาส4
โดย : กรุงเทพธุรกิจออนไลน์
ธปท.เผยผลสำรวจภาคเอกชนทั่วประเทศ เชื่อเศรษฐกิจไทยฟื้นตัวในไตรมาส 4 ของปีนี้ แต่ยังห่วงสถานการณ์ศก.โลก-ปัญหาการเมืองในประเทศ
รายงานข่าวจากธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย (ธปท.) เปิดเผยผลสำรวจโครงการแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจ ระหว่าง ธปท. และสมาคมธุรกิจในสาขาต่างๆ ทั่วประเทศจำนวน 182 ราย ในช่วงไตรมาสที่ 1 ของปี 2552 พบว่า นักธุรกิจส่วนใหญ่ก็คาดว่า เศรษฐกิจไทยจะสามารถฟื้นตัวในราวไตรมาสที่ 4 ของปี 2552
ทั้งนี้ ในช่วงที่ผ่านมาผู้ประกอบการได้ปรับตัวโดยการเพิ่มประสิทธิภาพ และลดต้นทุนการผลิตการบริหารสินค้าคงคลังให้มีประสิทธิภาพมากขึ้น
นอกจากนี้ ยังมีการแสวงหาตลาดใหม่ ผู้ประกอบการต้องลดต้นทุนด้านแรงงานลง โดยเริ่มจากการลดเวลาการทำงาน และลดแรงงานประเภท ลูกจ้างชั่วคราวลง และพยายามรักษาแรงงานมีฝีมือไว้ให้นานที่สุด เพื่อให้สามารถเพิ่มการผลิตได้ทันทีในกรณีที่มีคำสั่งซื้อกลับมา
สำหรับแรงงานที่ถูกเลิกจ้างจากโรงงานอุตสาหกรรมที่ต้องปิดกิจการ บางส่วนได้รับการรองรับจากโรงงานอุตสหกรรมบางส่วนที่ยังคงขาดแคลนแรงงาน และบางส่วนย้ายกลับไปภาคเกษตร
อย่างไรก็ตาม วิกฤตเศรษฐกิจโลกส่งผลกระทบต่อเศรษฐกิจใน ประเทศอย่างต่อเนื่อง ตั้งแต่ไตรมาสที่ 4 ของปี 2551 จนส่งผลให้ภาวะธุรกิจโดยรวมยังชะลอตัวจนถึงหดตัวในบางธุรกิจ โดยเฉพาะภาคการผลิตสินค้าคงทนที่พึ่งพิงตลาดต่างประเทศเป็นหลัก
นอกจากนี้ ในระยะต่อไปผู้ประกอบการคาดว่าการอุปโภค การลงทุน และการส่งออกจะชะลอตัวต่อเนื่อง โดยภาคเอกชนจะชะลอตัวอย่างต่อเนื่องจากไตรมาสก่อนตามการหดตัวของภาวะเศรษฐกิจโดย รวม และความเชื่อมั่นของผู้บริโภคที่อยู่ในระดับต่ำ สะท้อนจากการหดตัวของยอดตำหน่ายสินค้าของธุรกิจต่างๆ โดยเฉพาะในหมวดอสังหาริมทรัพย์ และหมวดการบริโภคสินค้าคงทน
ธปท.ระบุว่า การลงทุนภาคเอกชน หดตัวอย่างต่อเนื่องจากไตรมาสก่อน แม้ว่าปัญหาการเมืองภายในประเทศจะคลี่คลายลงบ้าง แต่วิกฤตเศรษฐกิจโลก ส่งผลให้อุปสงค์ในและต่างประเทศลดลงอย่างมาก ทำให้ธุรกิจลดปริมาณการผลิตลง และมีกำลังการผลิตเหลือมาก ประกอบกับนักลงทุนขาดความเชื่อมั่น มาตรฐานการให้สินเชื่อที่เข้มงวดมากขึ้น รวมทั้งนโยบายด้านสิ่งแวดล้อมทำให้ธุรกิจชะลอการลงทุนออกไป
ขณะที่ภาคการส่งออกชะลอตัวต่อเนื่องตามอุปสงค์ของประเทศคู่ค้า ส่งผลให้การผลิตโดยเฉพาะกลุ่มอุตสาหกรรมที่ผลิตเพื่อการส่งออกเป็นหลักลด ปริมาณการผลิตลง โดยอุตสาหกรรมที่ได้รับผลกระทบมากที่สุดคือ สินค้าอิเล็กทรอนิกส์และเครื่องไฟฟ้า ยานยนต์และชิ้นส่วนยานยนต์ อาหารแปรรูป และสิ่งทอ
ภาคการผลิตไตรมาส 1 ปี นี้ผู้ประกอบการแทบทุกประเภทสินค้าลดปริมาณการผลิตลงตามอุปสงค์ที่ชะลอตัว สอดคล้องกับการนำเข้าวัตถุดิบที่ลดลง โดยผู้ประกอบการต้องการระบายสินค้าคงคลังที่อยู่ในระดับสูงออกไปก่อนเพื่อลด ต้นทุน และรักษาสภาพคล่องทางการเงิน
อย่างไรก็ตาม เป็นที่น่าสังเกตว่าดัชนีผู้ผลิตอุตสาหกรรมเริ่มทรงตัวตั้งแต่เดือนมกราคม และเริ่มมีคำสั่งซื้อในไตรมาส 2 กลับเข้ามาในบางอุตสาหกรรม เช่น ฮาร์ดดิสไดร์ สะท้อนว่าอุปสงค์และอุปทานกำลังปรับตัวเข้าสู่ภาวะปกติ
ขณะที่การเข้าถึงสินเชื่อ ผลจากมาตรฐานการให้สินเชื่อมีความเข้มงวดมากขึ้นจากความกังวลด้านคุณภาพสิน เชื่อ ขณะที่ผู้ประกอบการบางส่วนต้องการสินเชื่อเพื่อขยายการลงทุน และสินเชื่อหมุนเวียนลดลงตามคำสั่งซื้อและการผลิตที่ลดลง
สำหรับปัจจัยเสี่ยงและอุปสงค์ในการดำเนินภาคธุรกิจ ก็คือ ความไม่แน่นอนของภาวะเศรษฐกิจต่าง ประเทศที่อาจชะลอยาวนานกว่าที่คาดการณ์ไว้ และการแข่งขันที่รุนแรงขึ้นของตลาดในประเทศ ตลอดจนปัญหาความไม่แน่นอนทางการเมืองในประเทศ ส่วนปัจจัยเสี่ยงด้านต้นทุนผ่อนคลายลงมากจากราคาน้ำมัน และวัตถุดิบที่ลดลง
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“โอฬาร” คาดเศรษฐกิจถึงจุดต่ำสุดพ.ค.-มิ.ย.
“โอฬาร” คาดเศรษฐกิจถึงจุดต่ำสุดพ.ค.-มิ.ย. ทั้งปีนี้ติดลบ 2.17% ระบุต้องปล่อยบาทอ่อนแตะ 37
นายโอฬาร ไชยประวัติ อดีตรองนายกรัฐมนตรี ซึ่งเคยระบุว่า เศรษฐกิจไทยปีนี้จะติดลบถึง 4% เปิดเผยการคาดการณ์ใหม่ว่า โดยเฉลี่ยทั้งปี เศรษฐกิจจะติดลบเพียง 2.17% ขณะที่ปริมาณการส่งออกทั้งปีนี้จะติดลบ 25.49%
สำหรับไตรมาสแรกคาดว่าเศรษฐกิจจะติดลบถึง 5.77% และจะถึงจุดต่ำสุดประมาณเดือน พ.ค. หรือมิ.ย.นี้ ส่งผลให้ไตรมาส 2 ติดลบ 4.53% และไตรมาส 3 จะดีขึ้น ติดลบเพียง 2.17% และไตรมาส 4 จะกลับมาเป็นบวก 3.91% เมื่อเทียบกับฐานที่ต่ำมากในไตรมาส 4 ของปีที่ผ่านมา ซึ่งติดลบ 4.25%
โอฬาร ไชยประวัติ
ทั้งนี้ การคาดการณ์ตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจดังกล่าวมีสมมติฐานว่าเงินบาทจะต้องอ่อนค่าแตะ ระดับ 37 บาทต่อเหรียญสหรัฐ และราคาน้ำมันในตลาดดูไบเฉลี่ยอยู่ที่ 49.53 เหรียญสหรัฐต่อบาร์เรล
นายโอฬาร กล่าวว่า เหตุที่ภาวะเศรษฐกิจไทยจะดีขึ้น ส่วนหนึ่งเป็นเพราะนโยบายการแก้ปัญหาของสหรัฐและจีนมีความชัดเจนขึ้น โดยสหรัฐได้ซ่อมงบดุลสถาบันการเงินแล้วประมาณ 90% ซึ่งน่าจะแล้วเสร็จภายใน 1-2 เดือน จะทำให้มีการปล่อยสินเชื่อเข้าระบบมากขึ้น
อย่างไรก็ตาม ไทยยังมีปัญหาใหญ่เรื่องการว่างงานกว่า 1.29 ล้านตำแหน่งในปีนี้ และดุลบัญชีเดินสะพัดเกินดุลมากผิดปกติถึง 2.42หมื่นล้านเหรียญสหรัฐ สะท้อนว่า ไม่ได้ใช้ทรัพยากรที่มีอยู่เต็มที่ เนื่องจากมีรายได้จากการส่งออกแต่ไม่ได้นำเข้าวัตถุดิบเพื่อผลิตสินค้า รัฐบาลจะต้องแก้ปัญหาตรงจุดขึ้น
แหล่งข่าวจากกระทรวงพาณิชย์ เปิดเผยว่า ตัวเลขส่งออกในเดือนมี.ค. จะขยายตัวติดลบสูง เพราะไม่มีการส่งออกทองคำสูงเหมือนเดือนก.พ.
นางสมจินต์ เปล่งขำ รองอธิบดีกรมส่งเสริมการส่งออก กล่าวว่า ภาคการส่งออกมีโอกาสจะกลับมาฟื้นตัวในไตรมาส 3 เพราะประเทศต่างๆ พยายามกระตุ้นการบริโภค
นายประกิจ ชินอมรพงษ์ นายกสมาคมโรงแรมไทย (ทีเอชเอ) กล่าวว่า การชุมนุมทางการเมืองได้ส่งผลต่อการท่องเที่ยวของประเทศ ทำให้นักท่องเที่ยวต่างชาติไม่เชื่อมั่นด้านความปลอดภัย ไตรมาสแรกนักท่องเที่ยวจะลดลง 20-25% ซึ่งคงไม่เป็นไปตามเป้า 14 ล้านคน
นายสุกิจ อุดมศิริกุล ผู้ช่วยกรรมการผู้จัดการอาวุโส บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ นครหลวงไทย กล่าวว่า นักลงทุนต่างชาติกังวลสถานการณ์การเมืองที่มีความไม่แน่นอนสูง และความวุ่นวายอาจจะสามารถทำลายความหวังเดียวที่จะฟื้นเศรษฐกิจ
http://www.posttoday.com/news.php?id=40175
“โอฬาร” คาดเศรษฐกิจถึงจุดต่ำสุดพ.ค.-มิ.ย. ทั้งปีนี้ติดลบ 2.17% ระบุต้องปล่อยบาทอ่อนแตะ 37
นายโอฬาร ไชยประวัติ อดีตรองนายกรัฐมนตรี ซึ่งเคยระบุว่า เศรษฐกิจไทยปีนี้จะติดลบถึง 4% เปิดเผยการคาดการณ์ใหม่ว่า โดยเฉลี่ยทั้งปี เศรษฐกิจจะติดลบเพียง 2.17% ขณะที่ปริมาณการส่งออกทั้งปีนี้จะติดลบ 25.49%
สำหรับไตรมาสแรกคาดว่าเศรษฐกิจจะติดลบถึง 5.77% และจะถึงจุดต่ำสุดประมาณเดือน พ.ค. หรือมิ.ย.นี้ ส่งผลให้ไตรมาส 2 ติดลบ 4.53% และไตรมาส 3 จะดีขึ้น ติดลบเพียง 2.17% และไตรมาส 4 จะกลับมาเป็นบวก 3.91% เมื่อเทียบกับฐานที่ต่ำมากในไตรมาส 4 ของปีที่ผ่านมา ซึ่งติดลบ 4.25%
โอฬาร ไชยประวัติ
ทั้งนี้ การคาดการณ์ตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจดังกล่าวมีสมมติฐานว่าเงินบาทจะต้องอ่อนค่าแตะ ระดับ 37 บาทต่อเหรียญสหรัฐ และราคาน้ำมันในตลาดดูไบเฉลี่ยอยู่ที่ 49.53 เหรียญสหรัฐต่อบาร์เรล
นายโอฬาร กล่าวว่า เหตุที่ภาวะเศรษฐกิจไทยจะดีขึ้น ส่วนหนึ่งเป็นเพราะนโยบายการแก้ปัญหาของสหรัฐและจีนมีความชัดเจนขึ้น โดยสหรัฐได้ซ่อมงบดุลสถาบันการเงินแล้วประมาณ 90% ซึ่งน่าจะแล้วเสร็จภายใน 1-2 เดือน จะทำให้มีการปล่อยสินเชื่อเข้าระบบมากขึ้น
อย่างไรก็ตาม ไทยยังมีปัญหาใหญ่เรื่องการว่างงานกว่า 1.29 ล้านตำแหน่งในปีนี้ และดุลบัญชีเดินสะพัดเกินดุลมากผิดปกติถึง 2.42หมื่นล้านเหรียญสหรัฐ สะท้อนว่า ไม่ได้ใช้ทรัพยากรที่มีอยู่เต็มที่ เนื่องจากมีรายได้จากการส่งออกแต่ไม่ได้นำเข้าวัตถุดิบเพื่อผลิตสินค้า รัฐบาลจะต้องแก้ปัญหาตรงจุดขึ้น
แหล่งข่าวจากกระทรวงพาณิชย์ เปิดเผยว่า ตัวเลขส่งออกในเดือนมี.ค. จะขยายตัวติดลบสูง เพราะไม่มีการส่งออกทองคำสูงเหมือนเดือนก.พ.
นางสมจินต์ เปล่งขำ รองอธิบดีกรมส่งเสริมการส่งออก กล่าวว่า ภาคการส่งออกมีโอกาสจะกลับมาฟื้นตัวในไตรมาส 3 เพราะประเทศต่างๆ พยายามกระตุ้นการบริโภค
นายประกิจ ชินอมรพงษ์ นายกสมาคมโรงแรมไทย (ทีเอชเอ) กล่าวว่า การชุมนุมทางการเมืองได้ส่งผลต่อการท่องเที่ยวของประเทศ ทำให้นักท่องเที่ยวต่างชาติไม่เชื่อมั่นด้านความปลอดภัย ไตรมาสแรกนักท่องเที่ยวจะลดลง 20-25% ซึ่งคงไม่เป็นไปตามเป้า 14 ล้านคน
นายสุกิจ อุดมศิริกุล ผู้ช่วยกรรมการผู้จัดการอาวุโส บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ นครหลวงไทย กล่าวว่า นักลงทุนต่างชาติกังวลสถานการณ์การเมืองที่มีความไม่แน่นอนสูง และความวุ่นวายอาจจะสามารถทำลายความหวังเดียวที่จะฟื้นเศรษฐกิจ
http://www.posttoday.com/news.php?id=40175
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European Confidence Rises for First Time in 11 Months (Update1)
By Jurjen van de Pol
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- European confidence in the economic outlook increased for the first time in 11 months in April as inflation slowed and governments boosted spending to combat the recession.
An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 nations that use the euro rose to 67.2, the first increase since May 2008, the European Commission in Brussels said today. The April reading was above the 65.6 median estimate of 26 economists in a Bloomberg survey, and up from 64.7 in March. Euro-area capacity utilization for the quarter fell to 70.5 percent, the lowest since 1990, the commission said.
The confidence report “will fuel hopes that the economy may now be past the worst of the recession,” said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Europe Ltd. in London. “With euro-area domestic demand likely to remain weak, any resumption in growth may have to wait for world demand to recover.”
Policy makers at the European Central Bank are debating whether to follow counterparts in the U.S. and the U.K. in buying assets to combat the economic slump, the region’s worst since World War II. The 22-member Governing Council has split over how aggressive to be at a time when the benchmark interest rate is already at a record low of 1.25 percent.
While the central bank said today that banks expect to tighten credit conditions less aggressively in the second quarter, the ECB also said loans to households and businesses grew in March at the slowest pace since at least 1991.
Retail Sales
The decline European retail sales eased to the slowest pace in 11 months in April as government stimulus packages improved consumer confidence, the Bloomberg purchasing managers index showed today. A gauge of consumer confidence in the euro zone increased to minus 31 this month from minus 34 in March, the commission report showed. A measure of manufacturers’ confidence rose to minus 35 this month from minus 38 in March.
Inflation is expected to remain near a record low this month as the global recession hurts demand for products from cars to chemicals. Economists expect a 0.7 percent inflation rate for April, according to a Bloomberg survey, near March’s 0.6 percent, which was the lowest since the data were first compiled in 1996. The April price data are due tomorrow.
Consumer confidence in the U.S., the second-largest market for euro-area goods, jumped more than forecast in April as stocks rallied, mortgage rates dropped and Americans thought more jobs will become available. The improvement raises the odds that recent gains in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy, will be sustained.
Biggest Bank
In Europe, Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, returned to profit in the first quarter as a thaw in credit markets buoyed trading income at the investment-bank unit. Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann yesterday said April was a “solid” month and the bank is “very optimistic” for 2009.
Royal DSM NV, the world’s largest maker of vitamins, posted a first-quarter profit that beat analyst estimates after price increases at the nutrition unit offset weakening orders for other chemicals. DSM, which also makes resins used in the exterior of Apple’s iPod music player, is “not seeing further deterioration,” Chief Executive Officer Feike Sijbesma told reporters yesterday.
Group of Seven finance chiefs expect a “weak” economic recovery this year as signs of stabilization emerge, the officials said after talks in Washington on April 24. Still, the International Monetary Fund last week cut its outlook for the world economy to predict a 1.3 percent contraction this year. The IMF forecasts the euro-area economy will shrink 4.2 percent this year.
Unconventional Measures
“The free fall of the economy seems to have stopped, but it is too early to raise the flag,” said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam. “It remains important for the European Central Bank to be persistent and lower the rate by a quarter point and announce unconventional measures.”
The ECB’s council members next convene in Frankfurt on May 7 to decide on monetary policy for the 16-nation euro region.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
By Jurjen van de Pol
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- European confidence in the economic outlook increased for the first time in 11 months in April as inflation slowed and governments boosted spending to combat the recession.
An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 nations that use the euro rose to 67.2, the first increase since May 2008, the European Commission in Brussels said today. The April reading was above the 65.6 median estimate of 26 economists in a Bloomberg survey, and up from 64.7 in March. Euro-area capacity utilization for the quarter fell to 70.5 percent, the lowest since 1990, the commission said.
The confidence report “will fuel hopes that the economy may now be past the worst of the recession,” said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Europe Ltd. in London. “With euro-area domestic demand likely to remain weak, any resumption in growth may have to wait for world demand to recover.”
Policy makers at the European Central Bank are debating whether to follow counterparts in the U.S. and the U.K. in buying assets to combat the economic slump, the region’s worst since World War II. The 22-member Governing Council has split over how aggressive to be at a time when the benchmark interest rate is already at a record low of 1.25 percent.
While the central bank said today that banks expect to tighten credit conditions less aggressively in the second quarter, the ECB also said loans to households and businesses grew in March at the slowest pace since at least 1991.
Retail Sales
The decline European retail sales eased to the slowest pace in 11 months in April as government stimulus packages improved consumer confidence, the Bloomberg purchasing managers index showed today. A gauge of consumer confidence in the euro zone increased to minus 31 this month from minus 34 in March, the commission report showed. A measure of manufacturers’ confidence rose to minus 35 this month from minus 38 in March.
Inflation is expected to remain near a record low this month as the global recession hurts demand for products from cars to chemicals. Economists expect a 0.7 percent inflation rate for April, according to a Bloomberg survey, near March’s 0.6 percent, which was the lowest since the data were first compiled in 1996. The April price data are due tomorrow.
Consumer confidence in the U.S., the second-largest market for euro-area goods, jumped more than forecast in April as stocks rallied, mortgage rates dropped and Americans thought more jobs will become available. The improvement raises the odds that recent gains in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy, will be sustained.
Biggest Bank
In Europe, Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, returned to profit in the first quarter as a thaw in credit markets buoyed trading income at the investment-bank unit. Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann yesterday said April was a “solid” month and the bank is “very optimistic” for 2009.
Royal DSM NV, the world’s largest maker of vitamins, posted a first-quarter profit that beat analyst estimates after price increases at the nutrition unit offset weakening orders for other chemicals. DSM, which also makes resins used in the exterior of Apple’s iPod music player, is “not seeing further deterioration,” Chief Executive Officer Feike Sijbesma told reporters yesterday.
Group of Seven finance chiefs expect a “weak” economic recovery this year as signs of stabilization emerge, the officials said after talks in Washington on April 24. Still, the International Monetary Fund last week cut its outlook for the world economy to predict a 1.3 percent contraction this year. The IMF forecasts the euro-area economy will shrink 4.2 percent this year.
Unconventional Measures
“The free fall of the economy seems to have stopped, but it is too early to raise the flag,” said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam. “It remains important for the European Central Bank to be persistent and lower the rate by a quarter point and announce unconventional measures.”
The ECB’s council members next convene in Frankfurt on May 7 to decide on monetary policy for the 16-nation euro region.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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Consumer Confidence in U.S. Jumps More Than Forecast (Update2)
By Shobhana Chandra
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence jumped more than forecast in April as stocks rallied, mortgage rates dropped and Americans thought more jobs will become available, adding to signs the recession may be easing.
The Conference Board’s sentiment index climbed to 39.2, the highest level since November, from 26.9 in March, the New York- based research group said today. The gain was the biggest since November 2005.
The improvement raises the odds that recent gains in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, will be sustained. The report indicates efforts by Federal Reserve policy makers, meeting today and tomorrow, to lower borrowing costs and unclog lending may be starting to pay off.
“People are tentatively hoping that the worst is over,” said Adam York, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, who had forecast a gain. “Hopefully, it means we’ll get some gains in consumption.”
Confidence was projected to rise to 29.7, from an originally reported 26 in March, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 62 economists. Forecasts ranged from 26 to 35. The index averaged 57.95 last year.
Home Prices
A report from S&P/Case-Shiller today showed that the slide in home prices in 20 U.S. cities slowed in February for the first time since January 2007. Prices fell 18.6 percent in February from the same month last year after dropping 19 percent the previous month.
Stocks rose after the reports, paring earlier losses, and Treasury securities fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up 0.4 percent at 861.27 at 10:48 a.m. in New York after dropping as much as 1.2 percent earlier. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.94 percent from 2.91 percent late yesterday.
The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions rose to 23.7 from 21.9 the prior month. The gauge of expectations for the next six months surged to 49.5, the highest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September.
The share of consumers who said more jobs will be available in the next six months gained to 13.9, the most since June 2007.
The outlook for current employment was more mixed. Fewer Americans said jobs were plentiful, at the same time those that said employment was hard to get also dropped.
‘Nearing a Bottom’
“Consumers believe the economy is nearing a bottom,” Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s consumer research center, said in a statement. Still, the index “remains well below levels associated with strong economic growth.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 7.5 percent so far this month, leaving it poised for its first two-month advance in a year. The benchmark index for American equities is up 27 percent since March 9, helped by unexpected increases in U.S. home sales and durable goods orders and a bigger-than- forecast jump in the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment.
The rally has been led by industries most reliant on economic growth. Shares of banks and brokeraged in the S&P 500 added 70 percent since the March low, while a group of retailers, automakers and restaurant chains climbed 41 percent, industrial companies surged 40 percent and raw-materials producers increased 35 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Lehman Impact
Today’s confidence figures corroborate other reports. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose for a second month in April, advancing to the highest level since Lehman’s bankruptcy in September pushed the U.S. deeper into a slump.
The increase in consumer confidence parallels strong approval ratings for President Barack Obama. A CBS News-New York Times poll taken April 22-26 put the president’s approval rating at 68 percent, higher than the 56 percent mark recorded by predecessor, George W. Bush, at his 100-day mark in office.
A USA Today-Gallup poll taken April 20-21 found 56 percent of respondents saying Obama was doing an excellent or good job, while 63 percent of those questioned by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press from April 14-21 approved of his performance in office. All three surveys had margins of error of 3 percentage points.
Economists have said the Conference Board’s index tends to be more influenced by attitudes about the labor market.
The economy has lost 5.1 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in early April predicted unemployment will rise to 9.5 percent by the end of the year.
Government Efforts
At the same time, recent reports show government efforts to support housing and revive lending may be starting to work. Combined purchases of new and existing houses have hovered around a 5 million annual pace since November, and sales at retailers improved in the first two months of the year.
The Libor-OIS premium that indicates banks’ reluctance to lend to each other fell to 0.84 percentage point today, the lowest level since before Lehman collapsed in September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Amazon.com Inc., the world’s biggest Internet retailer, posted a jump in first-quarter sales and profit, bolstered by free shipping offers. Restaurant chains Cheesecake Factory Inc. and Yum! Brands Inc. reported quarterly income that fell less than analysts forecast.
In a sign the plunge in car sales may be easing, AutoNation Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. car retailer, this month reported a smaller-than-expected drop in first-quarter earnings.
“We saw in the first quarter the first signs of stabilization,” Chief Executive Officer Mike Jackson said in an interview on April 23. Sales improved in the last 10 days of March as banks offered better lending terms, he said.
The average rate on auto loans is 2.67 percentage points above one-month Libor. While that is more than the average of 1.84 percentage points over the past decade, it’s down from about 8 percent in December.
By Shobhana Chandra
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence jumped more than forecast in April as stocks rallied, mortgage rates dropped and Americans thought more jobs will become available, adding to signs the recession may be easing.
The Conference Board’s sentiment index climbed to 39.2, the highest level since November, from 26.9 in March, the New York- based research group said today. The gain was the biggest since November 2005.
The improvement raises the odds that recent gains in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, will be sustained. The report indicates efforts by Federal Reserve policy makers, meeting today and tomorrow, to lower borrowing costs and unclog lending may be starting to pay off.
“People are tentatively hoping that the worst is over,” said Adam York, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, who had forecast a gain. “Hopefully, it means we’ll get some gains in consumption.”
Confidence was projected to rise to 29.7, from an originally reported 26 in March, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 62 economists. Forecasts ranged from 26 to 35. The index averaged 57.95 last year.
Home Prices
A report from S&P/Case-Shiller today showed that the slide in home prices in 20 U.S. cities slowed in February for the first time since January 2007. Prices fell 18.6 percent in February from the same month last year after dropping 19 percent the previous month.
Stocks rose after the reports, paring earlier losses, and Treasury securities fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up 0.4 percent at 861.27 at 10:48 a.m. in New York after dropping as much as 1.2 percent earlier. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.94 percent from 2.91 percent late yesterday.
The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions rose to 23.7 from 21.9 the prior month. The gauge of expectations for the next six months surged to 49.5, the highest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September.
The share of consumers who said more jobs will be available in the next six months gained to 13.9, the most since June 2007.
The outlook for current employment was more mixed. Fewer Americans said jobs were plentiful, at the same time those that said employment was hard to get also dropped.
‘Nearing a Bottom’
“Consumers believe the economy is nearing a bottom,” Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s consumer research center, said in a statement. Still, the index “remains well below levels associated with strong economic growth.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 7.5 percent so far this month, leaving it poised for its first two-month advance in a year. The benchmark index for American equities is up 27 percent since March 9, helped by unexpected increases in U.S. home sales and durable goods orders and a bigger-than- forecast jump in the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment.
The rally has been led by industries most reliant on economic growth. Shares of banks and brokeraged in the S&P 500 added 70 percent since the March low, while a group of retailers, automakers and restaurant chains climbed 41 percent, industrial companies surged 40 percent and raw-materials producers increased 35 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Lehman Impact
Today’s confidence figures corroborate other reports. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose for a second month in April, advancing to the highest level since Lehman’s bankruptcy in September pushed the U.S. deeper into a slump.
The increase in consumer confidence parallels strong approval ratings for President Barack Obama. A CBS News-New York Times poll taken April 22-26 put the president’s approval rating at 68 percent, higher than the 56 percent mark recorded by predecessor, George W. Bush, at his 100-day mark in office.
A USA Today-Gallup poll taken April 20-21 found 56 percent of respondents saying Obama was doing an excellent or good job, while 63 percent of those questioned by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press from April 14-21 approved of his performance in office. All three surveys had margins of error of 3 percentage points.
Economists have said the Conference Board’s index tends to be more influenced by attitudes about the labor market.
The economy has lost 5.1 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in early April predicted unemployment will rise to 9.5 percent by the end of the year.
Government Efforts
At the same time, recent reports show government efforts to support housing and revive lending may be starting to work. Combined purchases of new and existing houses have hovered around a 5 million annual pace since November, and sales at retailers improved in the first two months of the year.
The Libor-OIS premium that indicates banks’ reluctance to lend to each other fell to 0.84 percentage point today, the lowest level since before Lehman collapsed in September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Amazon.com Inc., the world’s biggest Internet retailer, posted a jump in first-quarter sales and profit, bolstered by free shipping offers. Restaurant chains Cheesecake Factory Inc. and Yum! Brands Inc. reported quarterly income that fell less than analysts forecast.
In a sign the plunge in car sales may be easing, AutoNation Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. car retailer, this month reported a smaller-than-expected drop in first-quarter earnings.
“We saw in the first quarter the first signs of stabilization,” Chief Executive Officer Mike Jackson said in an interview on April 23. Sales improved in the last 10 days of March as banks offered better lending terms, he said.
The average rate on auto loans is 2.67 percentage points above one-month Libor. While that is more than the average of 1.84 percentage points over the past decade, it’s down from about 8 percent in December.
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Charts Predict: Asia Signals New Bull Market
While western stock indexes struggle to rally in an overall bear market, their emerging counterparts are set to enjoy the real thing, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC.
“Asia and China and emerging markets are where the new bull markets are being signalled. In the mature western markets, we’re having rallies in bear markets on the classic definitions,” Griffiths said.
Asian and emerging markets have finished a cyclical bear market and are giving all the signs of going into a new cyclical bull market, according to Griffiths.
“We do indeed have some bull markets on the planet, there in places like China and India, they’re definitely not in the western world,” he added.
It is possible for western indexes such as the FTSE-100 to turn the current bear market rally into a bull market, Griffiths said.
If the FTSE starts to make a pattern of rising highs and lows above the 200-day moving average, “most technicians around the world would accept it is now called a bull market,” Griffiths added.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30430736
While western stock indexes struggle to rally in an overall bear market, their emerging counterparts are set to enjoy the real thing, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC.
“Asia and China and emerging markets are where the new bull markets are being signalled. In the mature western markets, we’re having rallies in bear markets on the classic definitions,” Griffiths said.
Asian and emerging markets have finished a cyclical bear market and are giving all the signs of going into a new cyclical bull market, according to Griffiths.
“We do indeed have some bull markets on the planet, there in places like China and India, they’re definitely not in the western world,” he added.
It is possible for western indexes such as the FTSE-100 to turn the current bear market rally into a bull market, Griffiths said.
If the FTSE starts to make a pattern of rising highs and lows above the 200-day moving average, “most technicians around the world would accept it is now called a bull market,” Griffiths added.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30430736
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South Korean Manufacturers’ Confidence Rises to 7-Month High
By Shinhye Kang
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- South Korean manufacturers’ confidence rose to the highest level in seven months, adding to signs that the economy’s slowdown may be abating.
An index measuring expectations for May advanced to 71 from 60 in April, according to a survey of 1,412 manufacturers released by the Bank of Korea in Seoul today. The index reached 44 in January, the lowest since the series began in 1991. A score of less than 100 means pessimists outnumber optimists.
Across Asia, there is mounting evidence that government spending packages and interest-rate cuts are buoying domestic demand, while a pickup in China is beginning to stoke exports. South Korea’s economy expanded 0.1 percent in the first quarter, following a 5.1 percent contraction in the previous three months.
Sentiment among Korean consumers for April climbed to the highest in at least nine months, the central bank said this week. The Kospi stock index has gained 19 percent this year after falling 41 percent in 2008.
An index measuring the outlook for exports rose to 78 from 70 and a gauge for domestic sales increased to 77 from 64, today’s report showed.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS AG, Deutsche Bank AG and Citigroup Inc. have all raised their 2009 gross domestic product forecasts for South Korea since the central bank released first- quarter figures on April 24.
An index of non-manufacturing companies’ expectations advanced to 74 from 63 in the previous month. The Bank of Korea polled the manufacturers and 717 non-manufacturers between April 15 and April 22.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
By Shinhye Kang
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- South Korean manufacturers’ confidence rose to the highest level in seven months, adding to signs that the economy’s slowdown may be abating.
An index measuring expectations for May advanced to 71 from 60 in April, according to a survey of 1,412 manufacturers released by the Bank of Korea in Seoul today. The index reached 44 in January, the lowest since the series began in 1991. A score of less than 100 means pessimists outnumber optimists.
Across Asia, there is mounting evidence that government spending packages and interest-rate cuts are buoying domestic demand, while a pickup in China is beginning to stoke exports. South Korea’s economy expanded 0.1 percent in the first quarter, following a 5.1 percent contraction in the previous three months.
Sentiment among Korean consumers for April climbed to the highest in at least nine months, the central bank said this week. The Kospi stock index has gained 19 percent this year after falling 41 percent in 2008.
An index measuring the outlook for exports rose to 78 from 70 and a gauge for domestic sales increased to 77 from 64, today’s report showed.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS AG, Deutsche Bank AG and Citigroup Inc. have all raised their 2009 gross domestic product forecasts for South Korea since the central bank released first- quarter figures on April 24.
An index of non-manufacturing companies’ expectations advanced to 74 from 63 in the previous month. The Bank of Korea polled the manufacturers and 717 non-manufacturers between April 15 and April 22.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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Japan’s Factory Production Rises for First Time Since September
By Jason Clenfield
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s industrial output rose for the first time in six months, adding to evidence the worst of the recession may be over.
Factory production climbed 1.6 percent from February, when it dropped 9.4 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.8 percent increase.
Recent reports showed the economy is stabilizing: exports rose last month from February and sentiment among consumers and merchants advanced in March. Stimulus packages pledged by Prime Minister Taro Aso since September may support domestic spending.
“We’ve passed the bottom in terms of the level of production,” said Masamichi Adachi, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “The negative side of things is that the recovery will be weak.”
Manufacturers cut production 34.2 percent in March from a year earlier, a sixth monthly decline. The output figures mirror those for the country’s exports, which have shown signs of stabilizing, albeit at about half last year’s level.
Overseas shipments gained 2.2 percent in March from February, the first month-on-month increase since May. Compared with a year earlier, exports plummeted 46.4 percent.
The U.S. and China, Japan’s two biggest overseas markets have shown signs of improvement.
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy jumped the most in two years in the first quarter, yesterday’s gross domestic product report showed, helping to boost the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 percent. Honda Motor Co. said this week the U.S. market has hit bottom.
China’s Spending
In China, $585 billion in stimulus spending is starting to kick in: urban fixed-asset investment jumped 26.5 percent in the first two months of the year, bank lending quadrupled in February and vehicle sales rose 25 percent.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average has climbed 20 percent since it slid to a 26-year low on March 10. Sharp Corp., Japan’s biggest maker of liquid-crystal-display televisions, this week forecast a return to profitability in the current year, citing higher sales of mobile phones in China, along with cost cuts.
Since September Aso has promised spending of 25 trillion yen, more than 5 percent of gross domestic product. The packages include cash handouts to consumers, subsidies to help companies keep workers and incentives to encourage business investment.
Stockpile Cuts
Some companies may have raised production to restock inventories, not to feed new demand. Manufacturers including Toyota Motor Corp. have cut stockpiles faster than sales have fallen, leaving room for a bounce in output that may be limited unless sales pick up.
“Exporters are rebuilding inventories on the basis of expectations for shipments,” said Dwyfor Evans, a strategist at State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong. “This is a little bit uncertain because if new orders remain at relatively low levels you’re not going to see a sharp rebound in production.”
Mitsubishi Motors Corp. this week said it will return to profitability in the current business year because of cost cuts, not higher sales.
The Bank of Japan later today will probably cut its economic forecast for the year that started April 1 from a 2 percent contraction predicted in January. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said this month weakening spending by companies and consumers will impair growth this year even as declines in exports and production moderate.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
By Jason Clenfield
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s industrial output rose for the first time in six months, adding to evidence the worst of the recession may be over.
Factory production climbed 1.6 percent from February, when it dropped 9.4 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.8 percent increase.
Recent reports showed the economy is stabilizing: exports rose last month from February and sentiment among consumers and merchants advanced in March. Stimulus packages pledged by Prime Minister Taro Aso since September may support domestic spending.
“We’ve passed the bottom in terms of the level of production,” said Masamichi Adachi, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “The negative side of things is that the recovery will be weak.”
Manufacturers cut production 34.2 percent in March from a year earlier, a sixth monthly decline. The output figures mirror those for the country’s exports, which have shown signs of stabilizing, albeit at about half last year’s level.
Overseas shipments gained 2.2 percent in March from February, the first month-on-month increase since May. Compared with a year earlier, exports plummeted 46.4 percent.
The U.S. and China, Japan’s two biggest overseas markets have shown signs of improvement.
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy jumped the most in two years in the first quarter, yesterday’s gross domestic product report showed, helping to boost the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 percent. Honda Motor Co. said this week the U.S. market has hit bottom.
China’s Spending
In China, $585 billion in stimulus spending is starting to kick in: urban fixed-asset investment jumped 26.5 percent in the first two months of the year, bank lending quadrupled in February and vehicle sales rose 25 percent.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average has climbed 20 percent since it slid to a 26-year low on March 10. Sharp Corp., Japan’s biggest maker of liquid-crystal-display televisions, this week forecast a return to profitability in the current year, citing higher sales of mobile phones in China, along with cost cuts.
Since September Aso has promised spending of 25 trillion yen, more than 5 percent of gross domestic product. The packages include cash handouts to consumers, subsidies to help companies keep workers and incentives to encourage business investment.
Stockpile Cuts
Some companies may have raised production to restock inventories, not to feed new demand. Manufacturers including Toyota Motor Corp. have cut stockpiles faster than sales have fallen, leaving room for a bounce in output that may be limited unless sales pick up.
“Exporters are rebuilding inventories on the basis of expectations for shipments,” said Dwyfor Evans, a strategist at State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong. “This is a little bit uncertain because if new orders remain at relatively low levels you’re not going to see a sharp rebound in production.”
Mitsubishi Motors Corp. this week said it will return to profitability in the current business year because of cost cuts, not higher sales.
The Bank of Japan later today will probably cut its economic forecast for the year that started April 1 from a 2 percent contraction predicted in January. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said this month weakening spending by companies and consumers will impair growth this year even as declines in exports and production moderate.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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The End of the Recession
The end of this recession -- the most severe downturn since World War II -- is finally in sight. This is the clear message from Economic Cycle Research Institute's array of leading indices of the U.S. economy.
What are these indicators? One is the ECRI's U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI), which has the longest average lead times of any U.S. leading index. Another is the Weekly Leading Index (WLI), which has a shorter lead over the business cycle but is very promptly available.
The growth rate of the USLLI turned up in November 2008 and has now advanced for four straight months. The growth rate of the WLI turned up soon after that, in early December 2008, and as of mid-April 2009 it had been rising for more than four months (see the top two lines in the chart below). A rigorous examination of the data affirms that both USLLI growth and WLI growth have been in cyclical upturns for at least four months.
Therefore, the economy is on the cusp of a growth rate cycle upturn -- i.e., a cyclical acceleration in economic growth. In other words, U.S. economic growth, which, according to ECRI's U.S. Coincident Index growth rate, is still plunging deeper into negative territory (bottom line in chart), will start becoming less negative in short order.
Signs of Recovery Ahead
The end of this recession -- the most severe downturn since World War II -- is finally in sight. This is the clear message from Economic Cycle Research Institute's array of leading indices of the U.S. economy.
What are these indicators? One is the ECRI's U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI), which has the longest average lead times of any U.S. leading index. Another is the Weekly Leading Index (WLI), which has a shorter lead over the business cycle but is very promptly available.
The growth rate of the USLLI turned up in November 2008 and has now advanced for four straight months. The growth rate of the WLI turned up soon after that, in early December 2008, and as of mid-April 2009 it had been rising for more than four months (see the top two lines in the chart below). A rigorous examination of the data affirms that both USLLI growth and WLI growth have been in cyclical upturns for at least four months.
Therefore, the economy is on the cusp of a growth rate cycle upturn -- i.e., a cyclical acceleration in economic growth. In other words, U.S. economic growth, which, according to ECRI's U.S. Coincident Index growth rate, is still plunging deeper into negative territory (bottom line in chart), will start becoming less negative in short order.
Signs of Recovery Ahead
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The recovery is near
May 1, 2009 filed under Business News
Business cycle forecaster Lakshman Achuthan sees signs of the recession ending this summer.
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2009/05 ... .cnnmoney/
May 1, 2009 filed under Business News
Business cycle forecaster Lakshman Achuthan sees signs of the recession ending this summer.
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2009/05 ... .cnnmoney/
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Emerging-Market Stocks May ‘Break Out’ by Year-End, Mobius Says
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks may “break out” into a bull market at the end of the year as falling interest rates and easing inflation make equities more attractive, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said.
Mobius reiterated that emerging markets are “building a base” for the next rally. Chrysler LLC’s bankruptcy filing and other “short-term risks” may hold back the rally, while speculators may bet stocks will fall, he said.
“We are at the base building period for the next bull market,” Mobius, who helps oversee $20 billion in emerging- market assets at San Mateo, California-based Templeton, said yesterday in an interview in Bali, Indonesia, where he’s attending a conference. “What I see happening is perhaps this continuing till the end of the year, and then a break out.”
Developing markets made up all 10 of the best-performing stock indexes in 2009, led by Peru and China. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has jumped 17 percent this year, compared with a 2.6 percent retreat in the MSCI World Index.
Since Mobius said on March 23 that the base for the rally is being built, the emerging-market gauge rose 20 percent, outpacing the global measure’s 13 percent advance.
Government stimulus programs from the U.S. to China have prompted Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to say there’s evidence of “green shoots” in some markets. Reports on consumer confidence and manufacturing in the world’s largest economy last week spurred optimism the worst of the recession may be over.
Growth Outlook
The International Monetary Fund, the Washington-based lender with 185 member nations, said last month the world economy may shrink 1.3 percent this year, compared with its January prediction of 0.5 percent growth.
Short sellers are increasing bets against developing-nation stocks by the most since March 2007, a signal the biggest rally in 16 years may fizzle as profits plunge.
Short interest in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund, which tracks equities in 23 developing nations, climbed 51 percent in March, the biggest jump in two years, according to New York Stock Exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. The growth in short sales, where investors borrow stock and sell it on the expectation prices will fall, marks a shift from the last three rebounds in emerging-market stocks. In those cases, traders closed out their bets.
Chrysler, based in Auburn Hills, Michigan, is the latest U.S. company to file for bankruptcy after a group of 20 secured lenders rejected an offer by the government that would have paid them $2.25 billion for $6.9 billion of debt, or 33 cents on the dollar.
‘Green Shoots’
“There are green shoots in the American economy,” Mobius said. “Some companies will declare lower earnings but there are still companies posting rising earnings.”
BNP Paribas Asset Management was also upbeat about the recovery of emerging-market stocks, saying shares in Brazil, Russia, India and China present the best combination for a recovery in economic growth amid continued volatility.
The investment firm turned positive on Russia in March and now holds more shares in the four so-called BRIC markets than benchmark indexes suggest, Martial Godet, who helps oversee the equivalent of $44 billion of assets as Paris-based head of investment management for new markets at BNP Paribas, said in an April 30 interview in Singapore. He said he expects the “outperformance” of the four markets to continue.
Even after the rebound this year, the emerging-market index is valued at 1.58 times book value, lower than its five-year average of 2.1 times. Based on estimated earnings, the measure has a multiple of 13 times.
‘Pretty Cheap’
“If you look at price-to-book value, you see that it’s below the average that we’ve seen for a number of years,” Mobius said. “We are not buying stocks that have a price- earnings ratio of over 10, by and large, with some exceptions, and we look at a five year time frame. Looking five years out, things look pretty cheap.”
Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies will be the best bet when the emerging markets embark on the bull market, with companies that supply commodities and cater to consumers benefiting the most, Mobius said. He also favors shares in Turkey, South Africa and Brazil, he added.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... kTudWUF1gM
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks may “break out” into a bull market at the end of the year as falling interest rates and easing inflation make equities more attractive, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said.
Mobius reiterated that emerging markets are “building a base” for the next rally. Chrysler LLC’s bankruptcy filing and other “short-term risks” may hold back the rally, while speculators may bet stocks will fall, he said.
“We are at the base building period for the next bull market,” Mobius, who helps oversee $20 billion in emerging- market assets at San Mateo, California-based Templeton, said yesterday in an interview in Bali, Indonesia, where he’s attending a conference. “What I see happening is perhaps this continuing till the end of the year, and then a break out.”
Developing markets made up all 10 of the best-performing stock indexes in 2009, led by Peru and China. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has jumped 17 percent this year, compared with a 2.6 percent retreat in the MSCI World Index.
Since Mobius said on March 23 that the base for the rally is being built, the emerging-market gauge rose 20 percent, outpacing the global measure’s 13 percent advance.
Government stimulus programs from the U.S. to China have prompted Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to say there’s evidence of “green shoots” in some markets. Reports on consumer confidence and manufacturing in the world’s largest economy last week spurred optimism the worst of the recession may be over.
Growth Outlook
The International Monetary Fund, the Washington-based lender with 185 member nations, said last month the world economy may shrink 1.3 percent this year, compared with its January prediction of 0.5 percent growth.
Short sellers are increasing bets against developing-nation stocks by the most since March 2007, a signal the biggest rally in 16 years may fizzle as profits plunge.
Short interest in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund, which tracks equities in 23 developing nations, climbed 51 percent in March, the biggest jump in two years, according to New York Stock Exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. The growth in short sales, where investors borrow stock and sell it on the expectation prices will fall, marks a shift from the last three rebounds in emerging-market stocks. In those cases, traders closed out their bets.
Chrysler, based in Auburn Hills, Michigan, is the latest U.S. company to file for bankruptcy after a group of 20 secured lenders rejected an offer by the government that would have paid them $2.25 billion for $6.9 billion of debt, or 33 cents on the dollar.
‘Green Shoots’
“There are green shoots in the American economy,” Mobius said. “Some companies will declare lower earnings but there are still companies posting rising earnings.”
BNP Paribas Asset Management was also upbeat about the recovery of emerging-market stocks, saying shares in Brazil, Russia, India and China present the best combination for a recovery in economic growth amid continued volatility.
The investment firm turned positive on Russia in March and now holds more shares in the four so-called BRIC markets than benchmark indexes suggest, Martial Godet, who helps oversee the equivalent of $44 billion of assets as Paris-based head of investment management for new markets at BNP Paribas, said in an April 30 interview in Singapore. He said he expects the “outperformance” of the four markets to continue.
Even after the rebound this year, the emerging-market index is valued at 1.58 times book value, lower than its five-year average of 2.1 times. Based on estimated earnings, the measure has a multiple of 13 times.
‘Pretty Cheap’
“If you look at price-to-book value, you see that it’s below the average that we’ve seen for a number of years,” Mobius said. “We are not buying stocks that have a price- earnings ratio of over 10, by and large, with some exceptions, and we look at a five year time frame. Looking five years out, things look pretty cheap.”
Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies will be the best bet when the emerging markets embark on the bull market, with companies that supply commodities and cater to consumers benefiting the most, Mobius said. He also favors shares in Turkey, South Africa and Brazil, he added.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... kTudWUF1gM
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Signs of housing, labor bottom
PNC Bank Chief Economist Stuart Hoffman analyzes turning points in two sectors of the economy.
http://money.cnn.com/video/markets/2009 ... .cnnmoney/
PNC Bank Chief Economist Stuart Hoffman analyzes turning points in two sectors of the economy.
http://money.cnn.com/video/markets/2009 ... .cnnmoney/
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Singapore Petrochemical Plants Near Full Capacity, Times Says
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s petrochemical plants operated at near full capacity during the first quarter as demand from China reached 90 percent of what it was before the global economic downturn, the Business Times reported.
Production at the city-state’s plants reached about 90 percent to 95 percent of capacity in the three months ended March, after output fell as much as 30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, the newspaper said, citing an interview with Stan Park, deputy managing director of Petrochemical Corp. of Singapore.
The second quarter will be better than the first, the newspaper said, citing Park.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... sYZE6LBBbw
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s petrochemical plants operated at near full capacity during the first quarter as demand from China reached 90 percent of what it was before the global economic downturn, the Business Times reported.
Production at the city-state’s plants reached about 90 percent to 95 percent of capacity in the three months ended March, after output fell as much as 30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, the newspaper said, citing an interview with Stan Park, deputy managing director of Petrochemical Corp. of Singapore.
The second quarter will be better than the first, the newspaper said, citing Park.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... sYZE6LBBbw
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China Manufacturing Rebounds as Stimulus Plan Spurs Investment
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- China’s manufacturing expanded for the first time in nine months after declines in export orders moderated and investment surged because of the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package.
The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.1 in April from 44.8 in March, CLSA Asia- Pacific Markets said today in an e-mailed statement. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.
An official manufacturing index released on May 1 also showed growth, adding to signs that China’s economic recovery is gaining pace and global demand is stabilizing. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 3.3 percent higher, extending its increase this year to 41 percent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 5.5 percent.
“China’s government has been extremely successful in stimulating investment,” said Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA in Hong Kong. A “sharp improvement in export orders” also fueled the rebound, he said.
The official manufacturing index has shown an expansion for two straight months. The government-backed measure is weighted more than the CLSA index toward large state-owned enterprises, which benefit more quickly from stimulus measures, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
China’s economy showed “some positive signs,” Vice Finance Minister Li Yong said yesterday in Bali at an Asian Development Bank meeting. Measures to boost domestic demand are “paying off,” Finance Minister Xie Xuren said today at the same event.
Export Index Climbs
In today’s figures, an output index climbed to 51.3 from 44.3, the first expansion in nine months, and a measure of export orders rose to 48.8 from 41.4.
“Recent economic reports suggest the global recession is abating in intensity,” said John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney.
Japan reported last week that industrial production rose for the first time in six months and at twice the pace estimated by economists. U.S. consumer sentiment climbed last month to the highest level since the credit crisis intensified in September. Crude oil traded today near a five-week high.
In the Chinese data, a new-orders index climbed to 50.9 from 43.6 while an employment index rose to 50.9 from 47.1, the first expansions in nine months for both measures.
“The recovery in China is broadening,” Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse AG in Hong Kong, said today.
Infrastructure Spending
China National Offshore Oil Corp., the country’s biggest offshore petroleum explorer, said May 1 that it will more than triple the capacity of its sole refinery to meet demand from the manufacturing hub of Guangdong.
Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and earth-moving equipment, said last month that spending on infrastructure was sparking a “turnaround” in China. The government’s projects range from low-cost housing to a high- speed rail link between Shanghai and Nanjing.
The government’s stimulus package triggered a 30 percent increase in urban fixed-asset investment in March from a year earlier. Growth in industrial output accelerated in March and new loans more than tripled to a record 4.58 trillion yuan ($670 billion) in the first quarter.
China’s passenger car sales rose 10 percent in March from a year earlier. That helped companies including SAIC Motor Corp., the Chinese partner of General Motors Corp. and Volkswagen AG.
The government has rolled out support plans for 10 industries, from autos to logistics, and said today that it would shut more small oil refineries and outdated metal smelters to increase efficiency.
Export Decline
While China’s exports plummeted in the first quarter from a year earlier, including a record 25.7 percent plunge in February, Commerce Minister Chen Deming said last month that the pace of the decline was slowing.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its estimate last month for China’s economic growth this year to 8.3 percent from 6 percent, citing “determined and persistent” government stimulus measures and a pickup in domestic demand.
The economy expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, lagging behind growth of 9 percent for all of 2008 and 13 percent for 2007. Growth may be 7 percent in the second quarter, the State Information Center said today in a report published in the China Securities Journal.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 1zHUfrFdZQ
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- China’s manufacturing expanded for the first time in nine months after declines in export orders moderated and investment surged because of the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package.
The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.1 in April from 44.8 in March, CLSA Asia- Pacific Markets said today in an e-mailed statement. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.
An official manufacturing index released on May 1 also showed growth, adding to signs that China’s economic recovery is gaining pace and global demand is stabilizing. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 3.3 percent higher, extending its increase this year to 41 percent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 5.5 percent.
“China’s government has been extremely successful in stimulating investment,” said Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA in Hong Kong. A “sharp improvement in export orders” also fueled the rebound, he said.
The official manufacturing index has shown an expansion for two straight months. The government-backed measure is weighted more than the CLSA index toward large state-owned enterprises, which benefit more quickly from stimulus measures, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
China’s economy showed “some positive signs,” Vice Finance Minister Li Yong said yesterday in Bali at an Asian Development Bank meeting. Measures to boost domestic demand are “paying off,” Finance Minister Xie Xuren said today at the same event.
Export Index Climbs
In today’s figures, an output index climbed to 51.3 from 44.3, the first expansion in nine months, and a measure of export orders rose to 48.8 from 41.4.
“Recent economic reports suggest the global recession is abating in intensity,” said John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney.
Japan reported last week that industrial production rose for the first time in six months and at twice the pace estimated by economists. U.S. consumer sentiment climbed last month to the highest level since the credit crisis intensified in September. Crude oil traded today near a five-week high.
In the Chinese data, a new-orders index climbed to 50.9 from 43.6 while an employment index rose to 50.9 from 47.1, the first expansions in nine months for both measures.
“The recovery in China is broadening,” Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse AG in Hong Kong, said today.
Infrastructure Spending
China National Offshore Oil Corp., the country’s biggest offshore petroleum explorer, said May 1 that it will more than triple the capacity of its sole refinery to meet demand from the manufacturing hub of Guangdong.
Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and earth-moving equipment, said last month that spending on infrastructure was sparking a “turnaround” in China. The government’s projects range from low-cost housing to a high- speed rail link between Shanghai and Nanjing.
The government’s stimulus package triggered a 30 percent increase in urban fixed-asset investment in March from a year earlier. Growth in industrial output accelerated in March and new loans more than tripled to a record 4.58 trillion yuan ($670 billion) in the first quarter.
China’s passenger car sales rose 10 percent in March from a year earlier. That helped companies including SAIC Motor Corp., the Chinese partner of General Motors Corp. and Volkswagen AG.
The government has rolled out support plans for 10 industries, from autos to logistics, and said today that it would shut more small oil refineries and outdated metal smelters to increase efficiency.
Export Decline
While China’s exports plummeted in the first quarter from a year earlier, including a record 25.7 percent plunge in February, Commerce Minister Chen Deming said last month that the pace of the decline was slowing.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its estimate last month for China’s economic growth this year to 8.3 percent from 6 percent, citing “determined and persistent” government stimulus measures and a pickup in domestic demand.
The economy expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, lagging behind growth of 9 percent for all of 2008 and 13 percent for 2007. Growth may be 7 percent in the second quarter, the State Information Center said today in a report published in the China Securities Journal.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 1zHUfrFdZQ
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Asian Stocks Are 2009’s Best Bet, Credit Suisse’s Parker Says
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks will be the world’s best performers this year as earnings growth in the region rebounds first and the Chinese government’s stimulus program bolsters the economy, Credit Suisse Asset Management said.
Asian shares are attractively valued and the region’s currencies may also strengthen over the next two years, boosting the outlook for corporate earnings, said Bob Parker, who helps oversee $600 billion as London-based vice chairman of Credit Suisse Asset. After Asia, investors should buy stocks in Latin America and the U.S., as Europe and Japan underperform, he added.
“Asian equity markets, particularly if you look at price- earnings figures relative to dividends, earnings growth and GDP growth, are very cheap indeed,” Parker said today in an interview in Bali, Indonesia, where he is attending a conference.
Asian developing markets make up half of the 10 best- performing stock indexes in 2009, led by China and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia-Pacific excluding Japan Index has jumped 18 percent this year, compared with a 2.9 percent retreat in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
China is the sole country whose economy is starting to show “significant improvement” in growth, helped by the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan, Parker said. He expects the economy to expand “close to 8 percent” in the second half, he added.
The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.1 in April, signaling that the nation’s manufacturing expanded for the first time in nine months, according a statement today. China’s economy grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace since at least 1999.
China’s Growth
China is among emerging markets that will “break out” into a bull market at the end of the year as falling interest rates and easing inflation make equities more attractive, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said in an interview in Bali yesterday.
Companies that supply commodities and cater to consumer spending in the world’s third-largest economy are among the best bets, said the fund manager, who helps oversee $20 billion in emerging-market assets.
Still, a rally in Chinese equities means that valuations have become less attractive, prompting Credit Asset Management trim some holdings in the nation’s domestic stock market in March, Parker said. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is valued at 27 times reported earnings, up from a low of 13 times in October, according to data tracked by Bloomberg.
“What we did in December is that we took positions in emerging markets, notably in China and Brazil, and what we did recently was we broadened those positions in Asia by taking some risk off the table in China and maintaining our positions by diversifying into India and Korea and Taiwan,” Parker said.
Within Asia, Credit Suisse Asset favors infrastructure- related companies in India and technology shares in South Korea and Taiwan, he said, without naming any companies.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 9BeNH.K.yw
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks will be the world’s best performers this year as earnings growth in the region rebounds first and the Chinese government’s stimulus program bolsters the economy, Credit Suisse Asset Management said.
Asian shares are attractively valued and the region’s currencies may also strengthen over the next two years, boosting the outlook for corporate earnings, said Bob Parker, who helps oversee $600 billion as London-based vice chairman of Credit Suisse Asset. After Asia, investors should buy stocks in Latin America and the U.S., as Europe and Japan underperform, he added.
“Asian equity markets, particularly if you look at price- earnings figures relative to dividends, earnings growth and GDP growth, are very cheap indeed,” Parker said today in an interview in Bali, Indonesia, where he is attending a conference.
Asian developing markets make up half of the 10 best- performing stock indexes in 2009, led by China and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia-Pacific excluding Japan Index has jumped 18 percent this year, compared with a 2.9 percent retreat in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
China is the sole country whose economy is starting to show “significant improvement” in growth, helped by the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan, Parker said. He expects the economy to expand “close to 8 percent” in the second half, he added.
The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.1 in April, signaling that the nation’s manufacturing expanded for the first time in nine months, according a statement today. China’s economy grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace since at least 1999.
China’s Growth
China is among emerging markets that will “break out” into a bull market at the end of the year as falling interest rates and easing inflation make equities more attractive, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said in an interview in Bali yesterday.
Companies that supply commodities and cater to consumer spending in the world’s third-largest economy are among the best bets, said the fund manager, who helps oversee $20 billion in emerging-market assets.
Still, a rally in Chinese equities means that valuations have become less attractive, prompting Credit Asset Management trim some holdings in the nation’s domestic stock market in March, Parker said. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is valued at 27 times reported earnings, up from a low of 13 times in October, according to data tracked by Bloomberg.
“What we did in December is that we took positions in emerging markets, notably in China and Brazil, and what we did recently was we broadened those positions in Asia by taking some risk off the table in China and maintaining our positions by diversifying into India and Korea and Taiwan,” Parker said.
Within Asia, Credit Suisse Asset favors infrastructure- related companies in India and technology shares in South Korea and Taiwan, he said, without naming any companies.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 9BeNH.K.yw
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