เห็นวอลดิสนี่ ซื้อ พิกซาร์ 3 แสนล้านบาท

[Jeng]

แล้วอ่านประวัติท่าน จ๊อบส์ แล้วอืม น่านับถือจริง อ่านแล้วขนลุก

เทียบกับการขาย shin ยิ่งอ่านยิ่งเศร้า

แถมมาว่าคนอื่นอิจฉาอีก

โหท่าน ใครจะไปอิจฉาท่านหละ เงินแบบนั้น

แต่อิจฉา ท่า จ๊อบส์ จริงๆ คนอะไร เก่ง และ สู้ สุดๆ

[qingwen]

อิทธิพลของสื่อจริงๆ
คุณอ่านหนังสือแล้วรับรู้ว่าเขาเก่งและเป็นนักสู้น่านับถือ
ผมดูหนังแล้วเขาเป็นคนเก่งแต่นิสัยเลวร้ายมาก (ผมไม่เชื่อหนังหรอก)
แต่ก็สรุปได้ว่า ดีหรือเลว ขึ้นอยู่กับสื่อจะปั้นแต่ง

[dingding]

ภาวนาให้ค่าย Gibli ใจแข็ง ไม่มีวันขายให้ Waltdisney  :x

[PP]

มีคนที่ได้รางวัลตอบแทนจากการลงทุนใน Pixar เมื่อ 10 ปีที่แล้ว แต่เขาเป็นเด็กอเมริกันครับ ติดตามได้จากบทความนี้ครับ
A Happy Ending to My First Investment.

A Happy Ending to My First Investment.

Disney is poised to buy out Pixar for $7 billion.

The longer story...

I was born in 1983.
I had my Bar Mitzvah celebration when I was 13 - in 1996.
I'm now 22.
At age 21, Warren Buffett wrote a short column professing his love for GEICO:

Security I Like Best

At age 16, I wrote a short column professing my love for Pixar:

A Look at Pixar, January 2000 (High school newspaper)
===

As a kid (I'm still a kid?) I loved computers, technology, cartoons, the internet, etc. So I natually learned everything I could about Pixar well before the company became an institutional favorite; I watched the company release Toy Story I, followed the news around the IPO, and just thought about the whole situation for a while. [The Peter Lynch "look in the kitchen" approach]

I saw the overwhelming lines at the theaters for Toy Story I (and knew the computer animated movies would be huge), the quality of their management (i.e. Steve Jobs), the quality of their product (i.e. computer animations much better than any rival, story lines on par - or better than - Disney's), and knew this would revolutionize motion pictures... [the Phil Fisher "scuttlebutt" approach]. Once they built a library with titles even better than that of Disney (Bug's Life, Monster's Inc, etc.) I quietly realized that Steve Jobs was likely positioning Pixar as a production company on par with Disney (which, 10 years later, is literally the case).

So, my best investment decision in the past 9 years has been to do nothing.
Back in 1996 Pixar had 79 million shares outstanding and was trading at a split adjusted $7 to $8 a share when I went "all-in" with the Bar Mitzvah money.

10 years later it's at roughly $120 share, ignoring the splits. The big bet is finally paying off, a decade later.

Related:
A glimpse into a recent investment idea

posted by Shai Dardashti @ 2:58 PM   8 comments    

8 Comments:
At 4:34 PM, January 24, 2006, Anonymous said...
That's about 32% compounded annually. Genius!

 
At 4:37 PM, January 24, 2006, Anonymous said...
or just plain dumb luck.

 
At 5:23 PM, January 24, 2006, Shai Dardashti said...
I'd say a combonation of both.

(Much more of the latter.)

- Shai

 
At 5:48 PM, January 24, 2006, Anonymous said...
congratulations on your investment but your return calculations are off.

 
At 6:28 PM, January 24, 2006, Shai Dardashti said...
I didn't post the first two comments - I just responded to them.

===

$8 to $60 (both pre-split figures) in 10 years is a CAGR of 22.32%

[With a $7 base, it's a 23.96% CAGR]

Ultimately, from any angle, it's well over 20% CAGR... which I think is satisfactory.

Most importantly, very tax efficient and extremely stress-free.

(Just sit there and do nothing for a decade.)

 
At 10:38 AM, January 25, 2006, Anonymous said...
Great Investment and Congratualations for your outstanding patience and temperament to not touch your great idea over the years.

My question to you is using your Graham Dodd/Buffett investment perspective that you possess today, would you have invested in Pixar at its IPO.

With hindsight, you can easily say it does fit that perspective, however, in looking at Pixar over the years it always seemed like it was expensive. Of course you could say I know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Again, congratulations, I wished I had the foresight that you exhibited.

Bob

 
At 12:06 PM, January 25, 2006, Shai Dardashti said...
My answer is "maybe" --- not "absolutely not," as would be expected.

===

As Buffett, Mohnish, and others stress - Chapters 8 and 20 are the real meat of Graham's ideas: "Margin of Safety," "Intrinsic Value" and "Mr. Market"

In my mind, there are plenty of ways to demonstrate a "Margin of Safety" against permanent loss of invested capital. In the report I wrote when I was 16, I touched on the technical and creative edge Pixar enjoyed, and the quality of their library archives.

Remember, Buffett once had a quote that Disney (was) like an oil well that once the oil is pumped, it just seeps back. Meaning: Disney pumps all the value out of their library, waits a few years, then issues a special limited re-release.

So, to an extent, I would compare Pixar to Disney: The value is not in hard assets but in pricing power, consumer mindshare, etc. (And one would have to pay a hefty "price-to-hard-asset" fee to get a ticket on the PIXR train.)

===

Sure, Pixar never traded near the Net Current Asset Value or at a PE level that provided an earnings yield better than a bond. But, when I bought, it certainly had a margin of safety to the real intrinsic value (using some non-traditional calculations), an opportunity since Mr. Market was overly fearful of some meaningless EPS misses.

---

Another other big holding at this point is BRST.pk

(Cheap P/Earnings? Cheap P/Book? Nope. But I do see a discount to intrinsic value, if approached from the proper angle.)

- Shai

 
At 10:32 PM, January 25, 2006, Bruce said...
Congratulations!

As a famous golfer supposedly said when someone said he was lucky: the more I work at it the luckier I get.