Thai VI

Buffett's Berkshire buys sizable new Exxon Mobil stake
By Jonathan Stempel and Luciana Lopez
Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:36pm EST
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/ ... BO20131114

Credit: Reuters/Rick Wilking

(Reuters) - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) (BRKb.N) on Thursday disclosed a new $3.45 billion stake in Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N), after buying 40.1 million shares in the world's largest publicly traded oil company.

Although the investment represents just 0.9 percent of Houston-based Exxon's shares, analysts said it reflects strong support by the second-richest American of one of the world's largest and most profitable companies.

"When Warren Buffett gives his seal of approval to any company, that is never a bad thing," said Pavel Molchanov, energy analyst at Raymond James & Associates, who rates Exxon shares a "strong buy."

Exxon shares rose 84 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $94.06 in after-hours trading following Berkshire's disclosure of its stake in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing that listed most of its equity investments as of September 30. The shares had risen 63 cents during regular trading.

"He likes buying big, established global brand names, and Exxon is a good flight-to-quality stock," said Fadel Gheit, senior oil analyst at Oppenheimer & Co, referring to Buffett. "The stock has also lagged the market in the last three and five years. That makes it a typical Warren Buffett holding."

Gheit has a "perform" rating on Exxon.

Berkshire already has energy and utilities businesses, including MidAmerican Energy, which is spending $5.6 billion to buy Nevada utility NV Energy Inc (NVE.N).

U.S. regulators require large investors to disclose their stock holdings every quarter, and the disclosures can offer a window into their strategies for buying and selling stocks.

Buffett sometimes gets SEC permission to delay disclosures so that he can buy stocks without having investors copy him.

He did this for the second quarter of 2013, and revealed on Thursday that Exxon purchases took place during that period.

"We appreciate the confidence investors have in ExxonMobil when they decide to invest in the company," Exxon spokesman Alan Jeffers said in an email.

Berkshire last reported owning Exxon shares in late 2011.

Debbie Bosanek, an assistant to Buffett, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

CONOCO STAKE DECLINES

Buffett typically makes Berkshire's largest investments, while other investments are made by portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. Berkshire's quarterly filings do not reveal who buys or sells what.

The company ended September with $104.9 billion of equities. Its four top holdings - American Express Co (AXP.N), Coca-Cola Co (KO.N), International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) - totaled $58.4 billion.

During the quarter, Berkshire also reduced by 44 percent its share stake in oil company ConocoPhillips (COP.N).

Through Thursday, ConocoPhillips' stock was up 27.1 percent in 2013, while Exxon rose just 7.7 percent. The Energy Selector Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund .XLE was up 22.1 percent.

"Buffett is a classic value investor, and Exxon has been an underloved stock in a bull market," Molchanov said. "Exxon is an amazing cash generating machine, which should generate $16 billion of free cash flow this year."

Berkshire also reported higher stakes in Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK.N), dialysis clinic operator DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc (DVA.N), satellite TV provider DIRECTV (DTV.O), Suncor Energy Co (SU.TO), US Bancorp (USB.N) and Verisign Inc (VRSN.O), which assigns Internet protocol addresses. Its stake in drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK.L) fell.

Berkshire also owns more than 80 businesses in such areas as insurance, railroads, utilities, chemicals and food. It paid $12.3 billion in June for half of ketchup maker H.J. Heinz Co.

On Thursday, Berkshire's Class A shares rose 0.7 percent to $173,320, and its Class B shares rose 0.8 percent to $115.69.

(Additional reporting by Anna Driver; Editing by Gary Hill,Ken Wills and Bob Burgdorfer)

3 reasons Warren Buffett bought ExxonMobil

Alex Dumortier, The Motley Fool 5:49 p.m. EST November 15, 2013
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/mar ... e/3584441/

Berkshire Hathaway likes energy giant because it's cheap, it's big and it's here to stay.
A03 TIGER EXXON KELLOGGS Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

Stocks hit another record high on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and the narrower, price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.48% and 0.35%, respectively. Both indexes are sitting at all-time highs.

Institutional money managers must report their stock positions to the SEC within 45 days of the end of each calendar quarter, and Warren Buffett's bricks-to-railroad conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), follows the same rule. The most noteworthy change Buffett made to Berkshire's portfolio is the addition of a sizable new position – 40.1 million shares valued at $3.4 billion -- in energy super-major Exxon Mobil (XOM) . In fact, Buffett constituted roughly three-quarters of the position in the second quarter and obtained confidential treatment from the SEC in his previous filing as he continued to build the position.

In many ways, Exxon Mobil is an obvious choice for Berkshire's portfolio; here are three reasons Buffett selected it:

It's just plain cheap

At 11.8 times estimated earnings per share for the next 12 months, Exxon Mobil shares trade at a 23% discount to the S&P 500's forward earnings multiple; meanwhile, it pays a 2.7% dividend yield against just 2% for the index. Furthermore, the valuation was lower when Buffett was building his position -- the stock's average forward earnings multiple was 11.3 in the second quarter and just 10.8 in the third quarter -- the sort of multiples that ought to generate some interest when they are associated with one of the best managed, most profitable companies in the world.

Exxon Mobil is the second-largest company in the world by market value

The reported value of Berkshire's stock holdings per today's filing is a staggering $92 billion. In addition, Berkshire generates a flood of cash on a permanent basis that Buffett must attempt to allocate profitably. (Berkshire's operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2013 was $20.7 billion.)

As such, when it comes to publicly traded stocks, Buffett can't waste his time on minnows; he needs to focus exclusively on hooking the largest groupers in the corporate ocean. With a market value of $407 billion, Exxon Mobil -- the world's second most valuable company -- is just such a catch. Exxon Mobil's size and liquidity enabled Buffett to make it his largest new position since he put more than $10 billion to work in another mega-cap issue, IBM, in 2011.

Exxon Mobil has longevity

Warren Buffett will only invest in businesses that have genuine staying power; for a long-term investor with a multi-generational time horizon, permanence is a very attractive quality.

Buffett's confident that Exxon Mobil shares that characteristic. We know this because in his 2011 shareholder letter, he argued against buying gold by comparing the far-in-the-future value of all the world's existing gold stock in the world and a hypothetical portfolio of productive assets with the same current value made up of "all U.S. cropland..., plus 16 Exxon Mobils." In the conclusion of his argument, he writes:

A century from now... Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions...

A century is a long time, but there is every reason to believe Exxon Mobil will be churning out gobs of cash -- and returning it to shareholders -- for the next several decades. That's not a bad start for a buy-and-hold investor, particularly when it is bought at the right price.

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

ในเมืองนอกน่าจะมีคนทำวิจัยนะครับ
ว่าหากซื้อหุ้นวันแรกหลังจากที่เบอร์คไชร์เปิดเผย
จะสร้างผลตอบแทนชนะตลาดหรือเปล่า

ลูกอิสาน เขียน:ในเมืองนอกน่าจะมีคนทำวิจัยนะครับ
ว่าหากซื้อหุ้นวันแรกหลังจากที่เบอร์คไชร์เปิดเผย
จะสร้างผลตอบแทนชนะตลาดหรือเปล่า

ผมคิดว่าคงมีคนทำครับ เพราะทุกไตรมาสมีรายงานการซื้อการขายหุ้นในพอร์ตของ Berkshire อย่างไรก็ดีเนื่องจากในช่วงหลังการซื้อขายหุ้นบางบริษัทคิดเป็นเงินจำนวนมาก Berkshire จึงขอผ่อนผันการรายงานเป็นกรณีไปครับ อย่าง XOM นี่ก็เหมือนกัน เป็นการซื้อตั้งแต่ไตรมาสสองแต่เพิ่งมาเปิดเผยในไตรมาสนี้ครับ

offshore-engineer เขียน:

ลูกอิสาน เขียน:ในเมืองนอกน่าจะมีคนทำวิจัยนะครับ
ว่าหากซื้อหุ้นวันแรกหลังจากที่เบอร์คไชร์เปิดเผย
จะสร้างผลตอบแทนชนะตลาดหรือเปล่า

ผมคิดว่าคงมีคนทำครับ เพราะทุกไตรมาสมีรายงานการซื้อการขายหุ้นในพอร์ตของ Berkshire อย่างไรก็ดีเนื่องจากในช่วงหลังการซื้อขายหุ้นบางบริษัทคิดเป็นเงินจำนวนมาก Berkshire จึงขอผ่อนผันการรายงานเป็นกรณีไปครับ อย่าง XOM นี่ก็เหมือนกัน เป็นการซื้อตั้งแต่ไตรมาสสองแต่เพิ่งมาเปิดเผยในไตรมาสนี้ครับ

ถ้าเป็นเมืองไทย ใครซื้อหุ้นตามเซียน
เกิดเซียนซื้อหลัง xd
กว่ารายย่อยจะรู้ ปาเข้าไปเกือบปี
น่าจะอันตราย พอๆกับเลือกหุ้นเอง

ในกรณีของ Berkshire ผมคิดว่าไม่ต้องเสียเวลาซื้อหุ้นตามครับ ซื้อหุ้น Berkshire ไปเลย

offshore-engineer เขียน:ในกรณีของ Berkshire ผมคิดว่าไม่ต้องเสียเวลาซื้อหุ้นตามครับ ซื้อหุ้น Berkshire ไปเลย

เงินท่วมบริษัท ไม่รู้จะเอาเงินไปทำอะไรดี

ขอบคุณ
บทความ
มา แจม..


http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 1523524594

เหตุผลข้อ 4
อาจจะเป็น
big buy back
ตามสไตล์ ที่ลุงบัฟชอบ

imerlot เขียน:ขอบคุณ
บทความ
มา แจม..


http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 1523524594

เหตุผลข้อ 4
อาจจะเป็น
big buy back
ตามสไตล์ ที่ลุงบัฟชอบ

เห็นด้วยเลยครับ
ตาราง morningstar ผมสะดุดตา ตรงจำนวนหุ้นที่ลดลงเรื่อยๆ มากๆ

ลูกอิสาน เขียน:ในเมืองนอกน่าจะมีคนทำวิจัยนะครับ
ว่าหากซื้อหุ้นวันแรกหลังจากที่เบอร์คไชร์เปิดเผย
จะสร้างผลตอบแทนชนะตลาดหรือเปล่า

เคยมีคนทำแล้วนะครับ เคยเห็น Monish Pabrai พูดถึง แต่ผมจำชื่อคนทำ/ชื่องานวิจัยไม่ได้แล้ว ท่าจำไม่ผิด ชนะตลาดพอสมควร

ขอเสริมครับ ใช่ครับ Monish บอกว่ามีคนทำวิจัยเรื่องนี้โดยบอกว่า ซื้อวันสุดท้ายของเดือนหลังจาก Buffett ประกาศและขายวันสุดท้ายของเดือนหลังจาก Buffett ขายก้อยังชนะ S&P 500 อยู่ประมาณ 11% ครับแต่ผมจำไม่ได้ว่า Duration ช่วงไหน

Berkshire Said to Reduce Its Energy Future Bond Stake

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reduced its holdings of Energy Future Holdings Corp. debt by a third after the Texas power provider made an interest payment and staved off a bankruptcy filing, according to a person with knowledge of the transaction.

Berkshire sold about $615 million of its $1.8 billion in face value of Texas Competitive Electric Holdings Co.’s senior unsecured notes this month, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the transaction was private. The Omaha, Nebraska-based company had taken more than $1.9 billion in writedowns from 2010 through the third quarter of this year, “substantially all” of which was related to Texas Competitive bonds, according to regulatory filings on its website.

Texas Competitive’s $1.83 billion of 10.25 percent bonds due November 2015, which paid a coupon on Nov. 1, traded at 9.125 cents on the dollar on Nov. 8, the highest level since July, from 1.87 cents on Sept. 25, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The debt traded at 7.125 cents on Nov. 22.

Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer, didn’t immediately return a message left with an assistant seeking comment. Adam McGill, a spokesman for the Dallas-based electricity generator, declined to comment.

Energy Future’s most senior lenders, who lost their claim to $270 million that the company paid out in interest Nov. 1, are poised to cede more cash as it prepares to make about $390 million in additional payments to other debtors through March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Auditors may then raise doubts about its ability to remain a going concern, which would trigger a default, according to debt researcher CreditSights Inc.

‘Good Trade’

“If you told me somebody’s getting 7, 9 cents on the dollar for senior unsecureds, to me that’s a good trade,” Peter Thornton, an analyst at Montpelier, Vermont-based research firm KDP Investment Advisors Inc., said in a telephone interview.

KKR & Co., Goldman Sachs Capital Partners and TPG Capital took the former TXU Corp. private in 2007 in a record $48 billion leveraged buyout, an investment predicated on rising natural gas prices. Instead, prices fell as the development of hydraulic fracturing created a surge in U.S. gas supplies, triggering 10 straight quarterly losses at the company since 2011.

Buffett described his $2 billion investment in Energy Future bonds as “a big mistake” in his annual letter to shareholders in February 2012. Berkshire wrote down its investment in Energy Future by $390 million in 2011, following a $1 billion impairment in 2010, Buffett said in the letter.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-2 ... d-bet.html

เหตุผลในการซื้อ เค้าไม่ได้บอก คิดกันไปเองหรือป่าวคับว่า เพราะถูก ใหญ่ มีชื่อเสียง ... ??? เผื่อจะตึความกันไปเอง

สงสัยปู่ยังไม่เข็ด หลังจากพลาดกับ Conoco Philip มาแล้ว

kongkiti เขียน:

XOM (2).png

XOM (3).png

XOM (4).png

ขอสอบถามนิดนึงนะครับ มิทราบว่าข้อมูลที่คุณ Kongkiti มาแสดงจาก Morning Star
ต้องเสียเงินต่อเดือนเท่าไรครับ และขอทราบ link ในการเข้าไปซื้อด้วยนะครับ

ขอบคุณครับ
Life

ปล. พอดีสนใจหุ้นต่างประเทศเหมือนกัน แต่ผมติตตรงยังหา Program ที่ screening
ดีๆๆ ไม่ได้เลย

bodin4814267 เขียน:

kongkiti เขียน:

XOM (2).png

XOM (3).png

XOM (4).png

ขอสอบถามนิดนึงนะครับ มิทราบว่าข้อมูลที่คุณ Kongkiti มาแสดงจาก Morning Star
ต้องเสียเงินต่อเดือนเท่าไรครับ และขอทราบ link ในการเข้าไปซื้อด้วยนะครับ

ขอบคุณครับ
Life

ปล. พอดีสนใจหุ้นต่างประเทศเหมือนกัน แต่ผมติตตรงยังหา Program ที่ screening
ดีๆๆ ไม่ได้เลย

ตามนี้เลยครับ
http://board.thaivi.org/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=52275

บทความนี้
ของคุณ ฟิลลิป
ช่วยมองเห็น ภาพไปข้างหน้า ที่ลุงบัฟมอง..
America Produced More Oil Than It Imported For The First Time Since 1995

By Ari Phillips on November 14, 2013 at 2:35 pm
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/1 ... l-imports/

The United States produced more crude oil than it imported in October for the first time in almost 20 years, the federal Energy Information Administration announced Wednesday. U.S. crude oil production averaged 7.7 million barrels per day in October while 7.6 million barrels per day were imported. Total petroleum net imports were the lowest since February 1991.

The U.S. also produced more oil in September than it has in any one-month period over the last 24 years. The U.S. remains the world’s largest consumer of oil and the largest importer of crude oil.

According to Daniel Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning author and energy expert, the technological breakthroughs, such as hydraulic fracturing, which enabled shale gas and tight oil, have led to a revolution, with U.S. crude oil production up 50 percent since 2008. In an article for Politico Magazine, Yergin says that thanks to that increase along with more efficient automobiles, petroleum imports have fallen from their high 0f 60 percent in 2005 to 35 percent today. This is the same percentage they were in 1973, when President Richard Nixon went on television to promise the American people energy “independence” within 10 years.

Yergin writes that, “the increase in U.S. oil production since just 2008 is greater than the entire output of Nigeria, one of the major OPEC producers, and more than Iran’s entire exports prior to the sanctions that have sliced its export level roughly in half since 2011.”

Yergin states that while we are already arguing over natural gas exports, in the form of liquefied natural gas, the next debate will be on an even more sensitive subject: whether the United States should export crude oil.

ซึ่งUS ไม่ต้อง
export oil หรอก แค่มีใช้เองอย่างเพียงพอ ก็คงลดต้นทุน ขนส่งต่างๆมากแล้ว.
น่าติดตาม....

.....

จากอีกแหล่ง ข่างเดียวกัน
U.S. crude oil production exceeded net imports (imports minus exports) for the first time since February of 1995.
15 Nov 2013
net imports, u.s. production
by Jorge Pradilla
source:
http://www.fuelsnews.com/u-s-crude-oil- ... ince-1995/

U.S. crude oil production exceeded net imports (imports minus exports) for the first time since February of 1995. According to the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. crude oil production averaged 7.74 million barrels per day (bbl/d) during the month of October, while net imports of crude oil averaged 7.57 million bbl/d. The table below reflects the change in scenery since 1994. Notice how the picture begins changing in the year 2009, with net imports falling sharply and production increasing.

So what has been changed?

Well, the biggest difference maker has been horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology (also known as fracking). This technology has allowed the U.S. to access supplies in shale formations in North Dakota, Texas and other states, which have contributed to most of the increase in field production from the Lower 48 States. Also note the disruptions in production due to some of the Hurricanes that have hit the Gulf Coast, especially Katrina and Rita in Q3 of 2005 and Ike and Gustav in Q3 of 2008. Finally, the EIA projects production will continue to increase and net imports will continue their downtrend through the next year, with production expected to reach 8.8 million bbl/d and net imports forecasted to reach 5.80 million bbl/d by December of 2014

Lower 48 states
นี้ก็สำคัญ
น้ำมัน
ถ้ามาจากแหล่ง นอกประเทศ ขนส่งก็ ทางเรือ
ถ้ามาจาก
Lower 48 states มากกว่านอกประเทศ
ขนอย่างไร?? คือ กุญแจหรือเปล่า??

..........
ทางท่อละ?
ลองอ่านบทความนี้
Warren Buffett Bought Stake in Pipeline Company on Same Day as North Dakota Oil Train Explosion
By Steve Horn
Global Research, January 03, 2014
http://www.globalresearch.ca/warren-buf ... on/5363626

Warren Buffett Bought Stake in Pipeline Company on Same Day as North Dakota Oil Train Explosion
On December 30, the same day a Burlington Northern Sante Fe (BNSF) oil train derailed and exploded in Casselton, North Dakota, Warren Buffett — owner of holding company giant Berkshire Hathaway, which owns BNSF — bought a major stake in pipeline logistics company Phillips Specialty Products Inc.

Owned by Phillips 66, a subsidiary of ConocoPhillips, Phillips Specialty Products’ claim to fame is lubricating oil’s movement through pipelines, increasingly crucial for the industry to move both tar sands crude and oil obtained via hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) in an efficient manner.

“Phillips Specialty Products Inc…is the global leader in the science of drag reduction and specializes in maximizing the flow potential of pipelines,” explains its website.

Buffett — the second richest man in the world — sees the flow lubricant business as a lucrative niche one, increasingly so given the explosion of North American tar sands pipelines and fracked oil pipelines.

“I have long been impressed by the strength of the Phillips 66 business portfolio,” he said of the deal in a press release. “The flow improver business is a high-quality business with consistently strong financial performance, and it will fit well within Berkshire Hathaway.”

Already owning 27 million shares of Phillips 66, the marriage between Berkshire and Phillips 66 was a natural one. Corporate law firm giant Bracewell & Giuliani provided Phillips 66 legal representation for the deal.
Buffett Cashing in on All Facets of Big Oil

Few understand the increasing importance of freight rail transportation of oil better than Buffett. But he also understands it’s not an either-or choice: pipelines also are key for moving oil to targeted markets.

....

แก้สะกด
ข่างเดียวกัน
เป็น
ข่าวเดียวกัน

key words
Bakken Shales Basin
http://geology.com/usgs/bakken-formation-oil.shtml

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean undiscovered volumes of 3.65 billion barrels of oil, 1.85 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, and 148 million barrels of natural gas liquids in the Bakken Shale Formation of the Williston Basin Province, Montana and North Dakota.

..................

http://www.desmogblog.com/directory/vocabulary/7174
On December 20, both chambers of the U.S. Congress passed a little-noticed bill to expedite permitting for hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") on public lands in the Bakken Shale basin, located predominantly in North Dakota. And on December 26, President Obama signed the bill into law.

Days later, on December 30, a Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) freight train owned by Warren Buffett carrying Bakken fracked oil exploded in Casselton, North Dakota. Locals breathed a smoky sigh of relief that the disaster happened outside the town center. In July 2013, a "bomb train" carrying Bakken oil exploded in Lac-Mégantic, Quebec, killing 47 people.

...

http://www.globalresearch.ca/warren-buf ... on/5363626
In the rail sphere alone, BNSF moves over 1 million barrels per day of Bakken crude to market, with The Dallas Morning News declaring in June 2013 that “without BNSF, the great North Dakota oil boom wouldn’t be as big.”

On top of Phillips Specialty Products and BNSF, Buffett also bought a $3 billion stake in ExxonMobil in November 2013. This came just a few months after he purchased over half-a-billion dollar stake in Suncor.

Far from “either-or,” for Buffett then, it’s a game of investing in “all of the above” of Big Oil’s assets.

...

more
reading

Fracking Boom Pushes U.S. Oil Output to 25-Year High
By Christine Harvey and Asjylyn Loder Dec 12, 2013 3:18

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-1 ... -high.html

....

Bakken shale
อีกนิด เพื่อ ดู พัฒนาการ ของ
ปริมาณในปี ต่างๆ

USGS’s estimate of the amount of recoverable oil in North Dakota has increased almost 50-fold since 1995

http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.o ... nd-abroad/
For example, in 1995, the Bakken shale formation in the western part of North Dakota and eastern Montana was estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to contain 151 million barrels of recoverable oil.

But with advances in drilling and production technologies, including the expanded use of techniques such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, the USGS revised its estimate by a factor of 25 in 2008.

And, just recently, the agency announced that the Bakken and the Three Forks formations in North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana contained an estimated mean of 7.4 billion barrels of undiscovered technically recoverable oil, double its 2008 assessment[iii].

In other words, USGS’s estimate of the amount of recoverable oil in North Dakota has increased almost 50-fold since 1995. Some oil analysts, however, estimate that Bakken could hold 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil

...

ต่อด้วย
จริงหรือ ที่ปริมาณ reserve US จะมากขนาดนี้

http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.o ... nd-abroad/
U.S. Oil Shale Resources

The USGS estimates our oil shale resources to be even greater than our shale oil resources. The United States has 2.6 trillion barrels of oil shale in-place, with about 1 trillion barrels that are considered recoverable under current technological conditions. The nearly 1 trillion barrels are about four times the amount of Saudi Arabia’s proven oil reserves—a large enough supply for 140 years at our current rate of oil use.

ส่วนอันข้างล่างนี้ พูดถึง Bakken ว่า มีเยอะจริง แต่จะผลิตยังได้น้อย..???
ยืนยัน Green river formation มีเยอะจริง.แต่ก็เป็นหินว่างั้นต้องใช้พลังงานมากในการผลิต???.

http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2012 ... -reserves/
Even though the oil in the Bakken and Eagle Ford is being extracted from shale formations, the term shale oil is reserved for something entirely different. The oil in these shale formations actually exists as oil, but the shale does not allow the oil to flow very well. This oil is properly called “tight oil”, and advances in hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technology have allowed this oil to be produced. The estimated amount of oil in place (the resource) varies widely, with some suggesting that there could be 400 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken. However, the reserve (the amount that can be technically and economically produced) is a very low fraction of the resource at 2 to 4 billion barrels (although some industry estimates put the recoverable amount as high as 20 billion barrels or so). For reference, the U.S. consumes a billion barrels of oil in about 52 days, and the world goes through a billion barrels in about 11 days.

The Eagle Ford formation in Texas is similar to the Bakken, in that it is oil in tight formations that is being accessed via fracking. The amount of technically recoverable oil in the Eagle Ford is estimated by the U.S. Department of Energy to be 3.35 billion barrels of oil.

Without a doubt, these two formations are a major factor in the current resurgence of U.S. oil production. But the Green River formation is the source of talk of those huge oil resources — larger than those of Saudi Arabia — and it is a very different prospect than the tight oil being produced in North Dakota and Texas. The oil shale in the Green River looks like rock. Unlike the hydrocarbons in the tight oil formations, the oil shale (kerogen) consists of very heavy hydrocarbons that are solid. In that way, oil shale more resembles coal than oil. Oil shale is essentially oil that Mother Nature did not finish cooking, and thus to convert it into oil, heat has to be added. The energy requirements — plus the fact that oil shale production requires a lot of water in a very dry environment — have kept oil shale commercialization out of reach for over 100 years.

สามบทความ ข้างต้น นั้นเพราะยังสงสัย กราฟนี้
ว่า US จะ แซงหน้า ซาอุได้จริง???
source:
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.o ... nd-abroad/


........

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_River_Formation
Oil shale

The Green River Formation contains the largest oil shale deposits in the world. It has been estimated that the oil shale reserves could be equal up to 3 trillion barrels (480 billion cubic metres) of shale oil, up to half of which may be recoverable by shale oil extraction technologies ("cooking" kerogen).[11][12][13][14][15] However, the above quoted estimate of 'recoverable' oil is in doubt, and challenged, by many renowned geologists because the technology for converting rock into an oil from the Green River shale deposit has not been developed, and it has never been profitably implemented at any significant scale.[16] While taking account the Green River oil shale the U.S. might indeed have greater oil resources than Saudi Arabia, U.S. conventional oil reserves (per the BP Statistical Review of World Energy) are only about 1/10th those of Saudi Arabia.[17]

สรุปว่า ยัง "unconventional" ยังไม่ proven

....................
ส่วน conventional หรือ proven
ตามนี้
http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?view=reserves

ต่อ us
consumption
production
http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?view=consumption
http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?view=production
.. .. ..

สรุป
2012
US ผลิตได้ 11.11 (millions of barrels per day)
เกือบเท่า ซาอุ ผลิตได้ 11.73

แต่ US บริโภคไป 18.5 (millions of barrels per day)
จึงทำให้ยังต้องนำเข้าอยู่ ส่วนต่าง

ส่วน Proved Reserves ซาอุมี 267 (billions of barrels)
US มีแค่ 26.5 หรือแค่ 1/10 ของซาอุ ตามบทความข้างบน

----
ส่วน shale oil boom แม้นว่ายังมี techinal/environmental question มากมาย
แต่ก็ เป็นตัว growth ตอนนี้ โดยเฉพาะแหล่ง Bakken
---
http://marketrealist.com/2013/03/contin ... -the-area/

Another indicator to watch is North Dakota crude oil production (as shown in the graph below). One can see that production has likewise risen rapidly over the last several years. The last reported month (December 2012) showed a 5% increase month-over-month and a 50% increase year-over-year, both strong indicators. Most market players expect the Bakken to continue to grow. In a presentation by Targa Resources (NGLS), the company states that total North Dakota Bakken production is expected to increase by 60% or more over the next five years.

...

growth ของ US
อ่านต่อที่

http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volum ... rgest.html

หน้า
EIA
ข้งบน
มี THAILAND
ด้วย
เลยเผื่อ link ไว้ให้

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=TH

.. ..

ตามอ่าน
ถึงนี้แล้ว
ลองถามสนุกๆ
1.
สหรัฐอพยพผู้คนในเมืองใกล้สถานที่รถไฟบรรทุกน้ำมันดิบตกราง
รถไฟบรรทุกน้ำมันดิบตกรางห่างจากเมืองคัสเซลตัน รัฐนอร์ทดาโคตาเพียง 1.6 กิโลเมตร เจ้าหน้าที่ต้องอพยพผู้คน 300...
วันที่ออกอากาศ : 1 ม.ค. 2513 07:00
http://www.mcot.net/site/streaming?id=5 ... tCvt9j_k6Y
ถามว่า
จากข่าวในบทความก่อนหน้า
รถไฟนั้นเป็นของ บ. อะไร ใครเป็นเจ้าของ?

2. รัฐนอร์ทดาโคตา มีแหล่ง น้ำม้นดิบ shale ที่สำคัญ ชื่ออะไร?

3. การขนส่งน้ำมันทางรถไฟ มีต้นทุนถูกกว่า ขนส่งทาง รถยนต์ กี่เท่า ?
4. ทำไม โอบามา ต้อง เซ็นกฎหมาย Bakken Shale basin, located predominantly in North Dakota. And on December 26, President Obama signed the bill into law?
5. ถ้าอเมริกา ผลิตน้ำมันได้โดยไม่ต้อง น้ำเข้า เช่น
18.5 (millions of barrels per day) แล้ว หนี้รัฐ 16ล้านล้าน คงจะไม่มีปัญหา หนี้เกินเพดาน..หรือไม่??
6. ถ้าลุงบัฟ ซื้อ บริษัทน้ำมัน เราก็ควร ซื้อ บ. น้ำมันตาม ถูกหรือไม่??
...

(ที่ถาม ไม่เคย ตอบนะครับ
เพราะมักมีคน ตอบให้ดีกว่า คาดเสมอๆ)

http://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy ... akken-crud

วันที่
อากาศ ของ mcot ข้างบนปี น่าจะเป็น 2014
ไม่ใช่ 2013