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โพสต์แล้ว: อังคาร มิ.ย. 25, 2013 11:02 am
Laurence D. Fink on Investment Megatrends 24.03.2013
I believe that for the next three to four years, the US is probably the best market in the world on a risk-adjusted basis.The following four megatrends are very important for a positive outcome in the US.
First, we have a very strong banking system. But it is in need of new assets. We've had four years of low interest rates. This is now harming the banks, because their assets are maturing very rapidly. People are refinancing their mortgages. The banks are therefore losing their high-earning assets.
They have to be a lot more aggressive, in terms of re-lending their money, and this will have a very positive outcome in the US – this need to lend is the second megatrend. The banks will start lending to small and medium businesses. In turn, once these businesses get more capital from the banks they will start hiring. Overall, the strength of the capital of the banks, and their need to start lending, will be a very powerful trend in the next few years.
The third area is housing. In the last five years, we've struggled with a very severe excess housing inventory in the US. Housing prices collapsed. We are now in the seventh year, and it is beginning to stabilize. In fact, prices are going up. So, what we saw as a large headwind is now becoming a good tailwind. That will transform the economy, too. It will add at least 1 percent of GDP to the economy.
The fourth megatrend is energy. We spend so much time talking about technology, and technological changes. But we don't understand how technology changes in the manufacturing process. In the US, we have seen how technology has transformed a country where four and a half years ago, we were focusing on the fear of being so reliant on importation of foreign oil. We were talking about all of the alternative energy sources that we needed. Now, through these new technologies, we've found natural gas and oil. Today, we're now projecting out four and five years. The US will be North American energy independent. It's a substantial change from what we just thought just four years ago. But more importantly, having this proliferation of excess energy, we have the lowest prices of natural gas in the world. Natural gas is USD 3.50 in the United States, versus USD 11 in Zurich, and in Japan and China, it's USD 18. We have a huge advantage in the US, which will allow us to become much more prevalent in manufacturing, because our natural gas is so cheap. Manufacturers are already moving to factories in the US.
See full article https://infocus.credit-suisse.com/app/a ... 18&lang=EN
I believe that for the next three to four years, the US is probably the best market in the world on a risk-adjusted basis.The following four megatrends are very important for a positive outcome in the US.
First, we have a very strong banking system. But it is in need of new assets. We've had four years of low interest rates. This is now harming the banks, because their assets are maturing very rapidly. People are refinancing their mortgages. The banks are therefore losing their high-earning assets.
They have to be a lot more aggressive, in terms of re-lending their money, and this will have a very positive outcome in the US – this need to lend is the second megatrend. The banks will start lending to small and medium businesses. In turn, once these businesses get more capital from the banks they will start hiring. Overall, the strength of the capital of the banks, and their need to start lending, will be a very powerful trend in the next few years.
The third area is housing. In the last five years, we've struggled with a very severe excess housing inventory in the US. Housing prices collapsed. We are now in the seventh year, and it is beginning to stabilize. In fact, prices are going up. So, what we saw as a large headwind is now becoming a good tailwind. That will transform the economy, too. It will add at least 1 percent of GDP to the economy.
The fourth megatrend is energy. We spend so much time talking about technology, and technological changes. But we don't understand how technology changes in the manufacturing process. In the US, we have seen how technology has transformed a country where four and a half years ago, we were focusing on the fear of being so reliant on importation of foreign oil. We were talking about all of the alternative energy sources that we needed. Now, through these new technologies, we've found natural gas and oil. Today, we're now projecting out four and five years. The US will be North American energy independent. It's a substantial change from what we just thought just four years ago. But more importantly, having this proliferation of excess energy, we have the lowest prices of natural gas in the world. Natural gas is USD 3.50 in the United States, versus USD 11 in Zurich, and in Japan and China, it's USD 18. We have a huge advantage in the US, which will allow us to become much more prevalent in manufacturing, because our natural gas is so cheap. Manufacturers are already moving to factories in the US.
See full article https://infocus.credit-suisse.com/app/a ... 18&lang=EN
