Stock-market crash or mini-correction? ตลาดล้มหรือแค่ปรับตัว
โพสต์แล้ว: ศุกร์ พ.ย. 16, 2012 5:47 am
By Michael A. Gayed
The decline in the S&P 500 and worldwide equities has been unrelenting so far this month, as the corrective risks I highlighted Oct. 1 and in every single writing since then have abruptly ended the reflation trade post QE3. On Nov. 5 I began pounding the table to " forget the elections " on the stark warning price was signaling through the return of the deflation pulse. Our ATAC models used for managing our mutual fund and separate accounts have sensed this for weeks, keeping the portfolios we manage completely out of the stock market.
Very suddenly, it feels like we are in the midst of a perfect storm given European austerity protests and public disputes over how to handle Greece, the threat of tax hikes under the Obama administration on dividends and capital gains, and the question of whether the Fed is " fighting itself ," as I speculated in my last writing in terms of actually causing deflation expectations to rise by removing a sense of urgency for money to move throughout the economy. Indeed, one could argue that the Fed has destroyed the ultimate weapon of all — the element of surprise.
"Darn the wheel of the world! Why must it continually turn over? Where is the reverse gear?"
—Jack London
This is not just a U.S. story. Certainly the fiscal cliff, which has been known for some time as a risk to the markets, is causing distortions within intermarket trends to take place. However, Germany appears to be in the early stages of weakening at a faster pace than the U.S. China and emerging markets, which have otherwise been strong, appear to be breaking down and may be vulnerable to another period of lagging.
The argument that money is selling to lock in lower capital gains is not the whole story here. The assumption in that is that there are actual capital gains to sell. Most hedge funds are hugely underperforming due to the earlier lack of belief in the reflation trade, meaning that there aren't really gains to sell for most active traders to begin with, the exception, of course, being stocks like Apple /quotes/zigman/68270/quotes/nls/aapl AAPL -0.07% which have erased in market cap alone months worth of the Fed's QE3 stimulus.
With most market averages now below their respective 200-day moving averages, and bond yields for most durations under the Fed's stated inflation target of 2%, the question becomes how much worse it gets.
I have likened price action over the past several weeks to the lead-up to the May mini-correction . I called for in early April before the June 4 melt-up low . Part of the reason I called for a mini-correction back then was the "Bear Paradox" — the idea that it is hard for stocks to collapse because a deep decline makes dividend yields rise while bond yields are already at panic lows, making stocks at a certain point a better income play than fixed income.
I maintain that the Bear Paradox likely means much deeper declines in equities are unlikely. Having said that, what would dramatically alter the odds of a collapse in equities resulting in a crash? Could a Summer Crash of 2011-like move, which I called for in June of last year , happen again?
The answer depends entirely on if a sudden and sharp widening of credit spreads takes place. Take a look below at the price ratio of the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF /quotes/zigman/1510831/quotes/nls/jnk JNK +0.10% relative to the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF /quotes/zigman/1505212/quotes/nls/bnd BND -0.01% . As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/JNK is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/BND. For a chart, visit https://twitter.com/pensionpartners/sta ... 28/photo/1 .
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ใครเก่งภาษาอังกฤษ มาสรุปให้หน่อย ซิครับ ผมแค่งูงูปลาปลา เข้าใจไม่หมด
...ถ้าตอบในอเมริกา ก็น่าจะเป็น การล้มของตลาด ไม่ใช่ การปรับตัวเล็ก ๆ น้อย ๆ ....ตลาดไทยผมคิดว่ายังแข็งแรงดี เศรษฐกิจตกไปบ้างก็ตามตลาดโลก...แต่ก็มีหุ้นหลายตัวที่ให้ผลตอบแทนดี ผมมองในด้าน Dividend Yield นะครับ บางตัวให้ถึง 10% ก็น่าจะหาได้....ตอนนี้ หาพวก 5-6% ได้เต็มตลาดเลย พวก หุ้นขนาดกลาง และ เล็ก นะครับ....อย่าง ถ้าซื้อ LTX ที่ 46 บาท เขาปันผล 2.50 บาท ก็ได้ถึง 5.4% พวก property fund ก็ดีครับ ให้ระดับ 6-8%เลยครับ ลองหากันดูนะ ... ดีกว่าเงินฝากที่ธนาคารอีก....ผมลงทุนในหุ้นมีแต่หุ้นแต่ไม่ค่อยมีเงินฝากครับ...อดทนและสู้ ๆ กันต่อไปนะ นี่ให้กำลังใจกับตัวเองด้วย ว่าจะสู้ ไม่ยอมแพ้ตลาด....เอ้า สู้ สู้ และ สู้ 
The decline in the S&P 500 and worldwide equities has been unrelenting so far this month, as the corrective risks I highlighted Oct. 1 and in every single writing since then have abruptly ended the reflation trade post QE3. On Nov. 5 I began pounding the table to " forget the elections " on the stark warning price was signaling through the return of the deflation pulse. Our ATAC models used for managing our mutual fund and separate accounts have sensed this for weeks, keeping the portfolios we manage completely out of the stock market.
Very suddenly, it feels like we are in the midst of a perfect storm given European austerity protests and public disputes over how to handle Greece, the threat of tax hikes under the Obama administration on dividends and capital gains, and the question of whether the Fed is " fighting itself ," as I speculated in my last writing in terms of actually causing deflation expectations to rise by removing a sense of urgency for money to move throughout the economy. Indeed, one could argue that the Fed has destroyed the ultimate weapon of all — the element of surprise.
"Darn the wheel of the world! Why must it continually turn over? Where is the reverse gear?"
—Jack London
This is not just a U.S. story. Certainly the fiscal cliff, which has been known for some time as a risk to the markets, is causing distortions within intermarket trends to take place. However, Germany appears to be in the early stages of weakening at a faster pace than the U.S. China and emerging markets, which have otherwise been strong, appear to be breaking down and may be vulnerable to another period of lagging.
The argument that money is selling to lock in lower capital gains is not the whole story here. The assumption in that is that there are actual capital gains to sell. Most hedge funds are hugely underperforming due to the earlier lack of belief in the reflation trade, meaning that there aren't really gains to sell for most active traders to begin with, the exception, of course, being stocks like Apple /quotes/zigman/68270/quotes/nls/aapl AAPL -0.07% which have erased in market cap alone months worth of the Fed's QE3 stimulus.
With most market averages now below their respective 200-day moving averages, and bond yields for most durations under the Fed's stated inflation target of 2%, the question becomes how much worse it gets.
I have likened price action over the past several weeks to the lead-up to the May mini-correction . I called for in early April before the June 4 melt-up low . Part of the reason I called for a mini-correction back then was the "Bear Paradox" — the idea that it is hard for stocks to collapse because a deep decline makes dividend yields rise while bond yields are already at panic lows, making stocks at a certain point a better income play than fixed income.
I maintain that the Bear Paradox likely means much deeper declines in equities are unlikely. Having said that, what would dramatically alter the odds of a collapse in equities resulting in a crash? Could a Summer Crash of 2011-like move, which I called for in June of last year , happen again?
The answer depends entirely on if a sudden and sharp widening of credit spreads takes place. Take a look below at the price ratio of the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF /quotes/zigman/1510831/quotes/nls/jnk JNK +0.10% relative to the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF /quotes/zigman/1505212/quotes/nls/bnd BND -0.01% . As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/JNK is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/BND. For a chart, visit https://twitter.com/pensionpartners/sta ... 28/photo/1 .
..................
ใครเก่งภาษาอังกฤษ มาสรุปให้หน่อย ซิครับ ผมแค่งูงูปลาปลา เข้าใจไม่หมด
...ถ้าตอบในอเมริกา ก็น่าจะเป็น การล้มของตลาด ไม่ใช่ การปรับตัวเล็ก ๆ น้อย ๆ ....ตลาดไทยผมคิดว่ายังแข็งแรงดี เศรษฐกิจตกไปบ้างก็ตามตลาดโลก...แต่ก็มีหุ้นหลายตัวที่ให้ผลตอบแทนดี ผมมองในด้าน Dividend Yield นะครับ บางตัวให้ถึง 10% ก็น่าจะหาได้....ตอนนี้ หาพวก 5-6% ได้เต็มตลาดเลย พวก หุ้นขนาดกลาง และ เล็ก นะครับ....อย่าง ถ้าซื้อ LTX ที่ 46 บาท เขาปันผล 2.50 บาท ก็ได้ถึง 5.4% พวก property fund ก็ดีครับ ให้ระดับ 6-8%เลยครับ ลองหากันดูนะ ... ดีกว่าเงินฝากที่ธนาคารอีก....ผมลงทุนในหุ้นมีแต่หุ้นแต่ไม่ค่อยมีเงินฝากครับ...อดทนและสู้ ๆ กันต่อไปนะ นี่ให้กำลังใจกับตัวเองด้วย ว่าจะสู้ ไม่ยอมแพ้ตลาด....เอ้า สู้ สู้ และ สู้