Thai VI

The issue of seize back the concession of a cellular network(Advanc),sattellite(Sattel) and tv(ITV) n Thaiairasia will b another bomb 2 SET.Coz,the issue might create more uncertainty in running business in Thailand.The FDI will certainly b drained off.
The following factor will drive SET 2 below 600;
1.The expected GDP which will b forecasted in the downward momentum.
2.The more demanding of risk premium(polititic,blasts,surprised regulation).
3.The lessened foreign inflow(30% regulation) will have the impact to Thailand financial liquidity.
These factors will derate P/E of SET to 7 or lower.When P has already up nearly 10% in very short term(SET=608.14@10/1/07 n 660.91 @16/1/07),while the expected E is lower,it means that (the increase of P n the decrease of E) the present P/E of SET is too high now.I foresee that many research houses will downgrade the earning of the listed co.in SET very soon,u may c their forecasts in the minus area.

The almost all  of the big players said in the latest Sianzone seminar that they don't have any position in SET now.
If SET below 650 together with SET50 below 455,it translate that SET has already finish the rebound n will head south to the below 600 area.

The bank sector is not cheap(relative 2 SET) now,n there is a long (downward) way 2 go 4 the energy(oil,gas).The 2 sectors weigh 40+ in SET,so It's very difficult 2 c SET perform well in the near term.

Khun David
Could you expected the time that those situations will happen?

ผมสงสัยว่า ในสถานการณ์ที่มีข่าวร้ายรออยู่อย่างที่คุณเดวิดว่าไว้
แต่..ทำไมนักลงทุนต่างชาติ(ซึ่งอ่อนไหวต่อข่าวร้ายมากกว่า)
ยังคง net buy มาตลอดในช่วงสัปดาห์ที่ผ่านมาครับ?

Willpower เขียน:Khun David
Could you expected the time that those situations will happen?

Dear Khun Willpower,
I expect SET should plunge below 600 within this quarter.
Addition;
Y don`t u buy some stocks which have low p/e?Coz,they have no growth n low liquidity,this is the same idea when foreign institutes look @ SET(low growth,liquidity n many surprised regulations).
When regional bours up,SET down.Most febuary,the former ones always have a correction,Let`s c how SET will perform in the near future.

starynight เขียน:ผมสงสัยว่า ในสถานการณ์ที่มีข่าวร้ายรออยู่อย่างที่คุณเดวิดว่าไว้
แต่..ทำไมนักลงทุนต่างชาติ(ซึ่งอ่อนไหวต่อข่าวร้ายมากกว่า)
ยังคง net buy มาตลอดในช่วงสัปดาห์ที่ผ่านมาครับ?

Dear Khun Starynight,
I guess that the net buy we saw is the buying 4 cover short sell.If u 've noticed u may c that the amount of the netbuy is in the lower n lower amount.When they finish the buying,what will happened 2 SET?

ถ้าไม่ขัดข้องขอถามกลยุทธ์การลงทุนของคุณ david หน่อย

คือ อยากทราบว่า ตอนนี้ คุณ david ถือหุ้นอยู่กี่เปอร์เซนต์ของพอร์ตครับ

เพิ่มเติม
ถ้ามีการลงทุนในหุ้นประเทศอื่นด้วย
และกรุณาบอกได้ ขอถาม
1.เงินสดที่เตรียมไว้ซื้อหุ้นกี่เปอร์เซนต์
2.หุ้นไทยกี่เปอร์เซนต์ และเคยมากที่สุดกี่เปอร์เซนต์
3.หุ้นต่างปรเทศกี่เปอร์เซนต์

Dear Khun Accidental Hero
ตอนนี้ คุณ david ถือหุ้นอยู่กี่เปอร์เซนต์ของพอร์ตครับ less than 15 %.
เงินสดที่เตรียมไว้ซื้อหุ้นกี่เปอร์เซนต์  85%
หุ้นไทยกี่เปอร์เซนต์ และเคยมากที่สุดกี่เปอร์เซนต์ 80%,100%
หุ้นต่างปรเทศกี่เปอร์เซนต์ 20%
Addition;I guess that the net buy we saw is the buying 4 cover short sell.If u 've noticed u may c that the amount of the net buy is in the lower n lower amount.When they finish the buying,what will happened 2 SET?
I think there may b a correction in regional markets in Febuary.

Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase yesterday gave a stern warning of the need for international cooperation to curb global imbalances that brought about speculation on the baht, otherwise "painful" adjustment may be introduced. The governor was in Tokyo for a symposium sponsored by the Bank of Japan entitled "10 years after the Asian currency crisis". She explained the need to introduce the stringent 30-per-cent capital-reserve requirement on December 18. "A measure like this, by nature, is short-lived. I believe in order to come up with more sustainable solutions, international policy dialogues, such as the International Monetary Fund-initiated Multilateral Consultation, will need to be strengthened," Tarisa said. "Short of regional or global coordinated efforts, some unnecessary and painful adjustments may have to be introduced, no matter now strongly committed we are to the conventional market mechanism."

Translate 2 no seeable future of cancelling the 30% regulation.


Japanese companies are suffering higher financial expenses due to the Bank of Thailand's 30% rule on foreign inflows, according to the Japan Chamber of Commerce (JCC). JCC president Tetsuji Banno said the chamber was surveying its 1,200 members about the impact of the central bank's Dec 18 reserve rule. He noted that Japanese businesses were heavy users of intercompany loans to take advantage of lower funding costs overseas. The reserve rule would force local units of Japanese firms to turn to the domestic market, raising funding and operating costs. Mr Banno said most companies would not necessarily be affected by the rule this year, as business plans are typically drawn up three to five years in advance. 􀂄 But if the central bank maintained the rule, Japanese companies and their domestic subsidiaries would certainly face higher costs. The reserve rule forces investors to set aside 30% of all inflows as an interest-free deposit with the central bank, and was imposed to curb speculative fund inflows that were pushing up the value of the baht. Mr Banno said that in any case, Thailand was expected to remain a key production base for Japanese conglomerates. Japan for decades has been the largest foreign investor in the country's manufacturing sector, notably in the highly strategic export-oriented sectors of automobiles, electronics and electrical goods.
 Translate 2 the Thailand financial liquidity will b lessened.

"Even though there are uncertainties and most foreign investors are going to wait and see for a couple of months, there still are risk appetizers who are ready to jump in since Thai stock market is cheap." Commented by chief economist of one of the financial institutes for PACRIM(HSBC ????) through CNBC two days ago.

Bread & Butter เขียน: Commented by chief economist of one of the financial institutes for PACRIM(HSBC ????) through CNBC two days ago.

The only person on CNBC I can trust is Larry Kudlow.  Those financial institutes always lie.

It's only a piece of information that everyone should digest with care and make its own conclusion or decision no matter who the commentators are, neither Larry Kudlow nor who else.