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Runaway Google
Commentary: We've jumped on this train before
Google (GOOG:
google inc cl a
News, chart, profile
Last: 390.43+4.48+1.16%
4:00pm 11/04/2005
shot up to $385 in Wednesday trading and added a couple more dollars intraday Thursday.
Wouldn't it feel a bit tough on the stomach if you were the one who sold shares at $301 on Oct. 20, the day of Google's blowout report?
Since then -- or in nine trading days -- Google has risen about 28%. That's four times the nearly 7% average appreciation in Google shares during a two-week span since this company went public on Aug. 19, 2004.
It makes you wonder: At this rate, does Google hit $400 by Friday or by the end of the month? How much is the downside risk for investors getting in at these levels, and is Google the only company whose shares are on this rocket-ship trajectory? Reader poll: Where will Google shares be at the end of November?
I'll start with the last. It's not. Check out Sandisk (SNDK:
SanDisk Corporation
News, chart, profile
Last: 65.14+0.63+0.98%
4:00pm 11/04/2005
. Shares are up 160% since July and 35% in the last two weeks due to demand for its flash-memory technology used in consumer electronics. Express Scripts (ESRX: Express Scripts Inc Cl A
News, chart, profile
Last: 79.31+1.30+1.67%
is up 26% in the last week. Cutera (CUTR: cutera inc com
News, chart, profile
Last: 33.68-0.82-2.38%
-- a laser- and light-based medical systems maker -- saw its shares go up 48% in three weeks.
So Google's not the lone stock making big gains.
But with little short interest, it's certainly one attracting real buyers.
And, it's also trumping the moves made by its Internet peers, which include Yahoo (YHOO:
Yahoo! Inc.
News, chart, profile
Last: 37.87+0.42+1.12%
4:00pm 11/04/2005
, and, incumbent companies across a swath of industries that Google is threatening. Those include software giant Microsoft (MSFT: Microsoft Corporation
News, chart, profile
Last: 26.66+0.22+0.83%
4:00pm 11/04/2005
, media titans Time Warner (TWX: time warner inc com
News, chart, profile
Last: 17.61-0.05-0.28%
4:00pm 11/04/2005
FinancialsMore TWXTWX17.61, -0.05, -0.3%) , Walt Disney (DIS: Walt Disney Company (The) (Holding Company)
News, chart, profile
Last: 24.81-0.09-0.36%
4:01pm 11/04/2005
, News Corp (NWS: news corp cl b
News, chart, profile
Last: 14.99-0.29-1.90%
4:00pm 11/04/2005
and Viacom (VIA: viacom inc cl a
News, chart, profile
Last: 31.78+0.27+0.86%
4:01pm 11/04/2005
), newspapers, like NY Times (NYT: New York Times Company
News, chart, profile
Last: 28.43+0.07+0.25%
4:00pm 11/04/2005
, and cable companies, such as Comcast (CMCSK: comcast corp new cl a spl
News, chart, profile
Last: 26.50-0.30-1.12%
4:00pm 11/04/2005
. Phone companies are likely to feel the heat too, eventually.
Of course, Wall Street analysts did raise their 2006 revenue estimates for Google by a little more than $1 billion, or 18.4%. Analysts also raised next year's profit forecasts by 14%, or a little over a $1 a share.
By comparison, analysts upped Yahoo's 2006 earnings estimates by a penny, or 1.4%. EBay's profit forecasts were actually trimmed by 2 cents to $1.01, because of its Skype acquisition. Time Warner's AOL reported a 5% decline in revenue in the third quarter Wednesday morning and advertising sales of $328 million, up 28%. That growth rate pales compared to Yahoo and Google, suggesting analysts won't be making many upward revisions to their 2006 estimates for the AOL unit.
Also, by comparison, prior to earnings season, technology companies in the S&P 500 were expected to grow profits by 18% in 2006. Now Wall Street is expecting a bit less -- a 17% rise in earnings, according to Thomson First Call.
How much more can we say about Google? Well -- too many things that have already been said. So, I won't glorify Google's virtues.
But I do want to point out that one reason Google continues to be widely watched is because it's perceived to be the sine qua non of many scientific and mathematical advances on the Web. In a world in which science is extolled as the answer to all our problems, a sacred scientific institution with a mission to displace all human editors and creative marketing types is exactly the image to possess to lure today's brightest minds, who want to turn the world upside down.
Google's not a media company -- though it competes with them. It's not a retailer -- though it competes with them too. It's not a phone company -- though it's inevitable that Google and that world will increasingly collide.
Google's mission isn't about creating movies, selling clothes or getting people to talk on the phone. Its mission is much higher, like getting someone back to the moon. Google CEO Eric Schmidt said that he hopes Google technology will help NASA develop another moon-landing mission. That's a pretty tall order. For now, Google scientists will be working on how to store the data from the NASA satellites. It'll take about 500 gmail accounts to hold the daily data off those satellites. When you're a company whose goal seems admirable and intellectually challenging, how can the best and brightest resist? See full story.
An added benefit is that Google gives employees 20% of playtime.
So does all this mean I want to jump on the Google train at this point?
I'll stick to my public thoughts back in the summer that Google would end the year well above $300. On CNBC last week, I also made the bullish case for Google, when it was trading at $350. Of course, that was looking at Google's earnings multiple vs. its earnings growth rate. It was trading at 1.1 times its growth rate, which is pretty low for a hyper-growth company. Some very smart investors think that using the PEG ratio argument is problematic.
Even if Google does go above $400 soon, that's a 7% gain, which isn't much of an upside compared to the downside risk.
For those who were around in the bubble years, the movements by Google and others certainly are familiar. As I rummaged through stacks of media I like to collect, I found a movement just as crazy back in September 1999 when Amazon.com shot up 23% on the day it announced ZShops. Crazy days.
Back then, Wall Street analysts were saying, "It's crazy to get off this train." Sure, it was. Amazon went from $59 in the fall to about $88 by the end of that bubble-era year.
But it was a steep and unforgiving slide afterward. Amazon dropped to $42 one year later. It collapsed to $6 a share two years later.
Will Google see the same fate?
1999 is very different from 2005. Google is very different from the first batch of Internet companies and even the blue-chip ones that have survived.
But all stocks fall. The fact that Google's short interest is light means that there won't be short covering to help drive a lot of upside, as short squeezes have been known to do. When people start taking profits, there might not be any support.
Sure, we may not see 99% declines like we stomached before. Google may even hit and stay above $400 by the end of the year. But as I said, all stocks fall. And, when it happens, it can happen very fast.
EBay was cut in half earlier this year. How many people saw that coming?
