I am only interested in making an investment if I can get at least a 50% discount to what the business is likely to be worth a couple of years from now. {อับไซด์}
If the numbers indicate that, then I conduct a thorough analysis of the business to make sure I understand the key drivers. {ตัวแปลหลักคืออะไร?หรือตัวเร่งก็ได้}
With most businesses, two or three variables control 80% to 90% of the outcome. {ไม่เกิน 2-3 ตัวแปร}
I want to make sure that I understand the right variables with a good sense of how they are likely to play out
Q: Can you give us one example of a company that you were helped by to invest from this ‘unpaid analysts pool?’
A : We used to have an investment in a Brazilian aircraft manufacturer, Embraer. We actually bought Embraer just a few days after the 9/11 attack at a moment when people thought no one would ever want to get on an airplane. Embraer’s stock actually had gone from $40 to $10 just in a couple of weeks. Their stock price approximately equaled the cash the company had on the balance sheet, so we were actually getting the business for free. I did a drill down on Embraer, partially through a friend of mine who is a CEO of a publicly traded airline in Latin America . I had looked at Embraer from a very different perspective in the sense that that business is really a duopoly business. Only two companies split that market, Embraer and Bombardier. Between the two companies, Embraer has what I would call an unfair cost advantage because labor rates in Brazil are much lower than those in Canada . Thus, they are actually able to produce airplanes at a much cheaper price than Canadians can.
Embraer S.A. is a Brazilian aerospace conglomerate that produces commercial, military, executive and agricultural aircraft and provides aeronautical services.
Bombardier Inc is a Canadian multinational aerospace and transportation company
A : I think you need to have what Munger would call “a latticework of mental models” and you also need to have wisdom in understanding the way the world works. It is a fairly simple but very critical fact. When I was looking at Stewart Enterprises, I looked at the thousand-year history of humans dealing with the deceased. With Embraer, I looked at the long history of the country.
I think of investing as being one of the broadest disciplines. Rather than visiting the business, it is probably better to spend more time understanding a variety of different subjects, though many of them may not seem to be connected with investing. Yet, the interplay is there. They work within that same macro environment or framework.
When Buffett looked at Coke, he looked at a hundred-year history of volume growth. When he looked at American Express, he looked at decades of the growth in a number of cards and charging per card and at the number of merchants. You have to have a clear view on the direction for a period of 10-20 years from now
I am only interested in making an investment if I can get at least a 50% discount to what the business is likely to be worth a couple of years from now. {อับไซด์}
If the numbers indicate that, then I conduct a thorough analysis of the business to make sure I understand the key drivers. {ตัวแปลหลักคืออะไร?หรือตัวเร่งก็ได้}
With most businesses, two or three variables control 80% to 90% of the outcome. {ไม่เกิน 2-3 ตัวแปร}
I want to make sure that I understand the right variables with a good sense of how they are likely to play out
Circle of competence
I don't think it's as difficult to figure out competence as it may appear.
If you're 5-foot-2, you don't have much future in the NBA.
What I need to get ahead is to be better than idiots.
Charlie Munger
And the stock market went down almost 70% in those two years, and so he got margin calls out the yin-yang, and he sold his Berkshire stock to Warren. Warren actually said, I bought Rick's Berkshire stock at under $40 apiece, and so Rick was forced to sell shares at ... $40 apiece because he was levered.
And then Warren went a step further. He said that if you're even a slightly above-average investor who spends less than they earn, over a lifetime you cannot help but get rich if you are patient. And so the lesson. My question was, what happened to Rick? The lesson was, don't use leverage, right? And be patient.
he said if an investor just did three things, the end results would be vastly better than the rest. And he said one is carefully look at what the other great investors have done. So, in fact, Charlie was endorsing copying off the 13Fs, right? So he said look at what other great minds are doing.
And the second thing he said is, look at the cannibals. And what he meant by "look at the cannibals" is, look carefully at the businesses that are buying back huge amounts of their stock. Because they're eating themselves away, so he called them the cannibals.
And the third is, he said, carefully study spinoffs.
Circle of competence
I don't think it's as difficult to figure out competence as it may appear.
If you're 5-foot-2, you don't have much future in the NBA.
What I need to get ahead is to be better than idiots.
Charlie Munger
1. simple n satble= (few controlable variables vs mutiple uncontrol variable)
2. wider n deeper Moat as time goes by
3. ได้ค่อนข้างแน่นอน แม่นยำ = stablility
“As a v a l u e
investor, you don’t
want to enter every
s m o k e - f i l l e d
theater. What you
want to do is
carefully analyze
these smoke-filled
theaters to try to
find one where the
smoke is not real, or
the fire alarm is not
real, it went off for
no reason, and then buy those tickets at
hugely discounted
prices, then sit back
and watch the rest
of the movie.”
3. จาก1-2 สรุปว่า โต ไม่ได้มาจาก LOSS RATIO แต่มาจาก บ.ต้นทุนส่วนที่ไม่ใช่ LOSS RATIO ประมาณ 30-40% ได้ดีกว่า
โดยสามารถจัดสรร เป็น งบโฆณษณา ถึง 6.5% {Geico’s ad budget represented 6.5 percent of the premiums it wrote in 2011}ในขณะที่ อุตสาหกรรมใช้งบแค่ 2.4%{For the whole industry, in fact, the average is just 2.4 percent.} ใช้งบ3เท่าคู่แข่ง
ถ้าไม่เทียบกับ Progress ซึ่ง model คล้ายกัน กับ Geico. บ.อื่นๆเวลาได้รับ Premium มา 100 อาจจะต้องจ่ายไป10-15% ค่าคอมให้เอเยนต์ ทำให้ต้นทุนสูงกว่า Geico ผู้บราหารเน้นในขาดตัดต้นทุนส่วยภายใน บ. เพราะ controlable varible ส่วน LOSS RATIO uncontrolable จากยอดขายที่โตต่อเนื่อง market share เพิ่มต่อเนื่อง สรุปได้ว่า model นี้ ยังประสบความสำเร็จอยู่จนกว่า คู่แข่งจะปรับโมเดลตาม เท่าที่มีตอนนี้คือ Progress
The key cost and metric for evaluating GEICO can now be described as its advertising efficiency. Exactly the same is true for its arch rival Progressive. The moat has receded and the cost of defending its moat has increased as well.
Circle of competence
I don't think it's as difficult to figure out competence as it may appear.
If you're 5-foot-2, you don't have much future in the NBA.
What I need to get ahead is to be better than idiots.
Charlie Munger
โพสต์
บันทึกไม่สำเร็จ