ผมชอบอ่าน Market Comment ของเขาครับ
http://www.questthai.com/market.html
Dear [[DEAR]],
Attached is the final March 2013 result for the Thai Focused Equity Fund (TFE). For the month, the Fund gained 12.1%, while the SET index increased 3.1% in US$ terms. For the year, the Fund increased 42.9 % versus a 17.2% gain for the SET.
Our fund generated the third month in a row of impressive returns in March and outperformed the SET index. All of our seven heavily weighted sectors performed positively, and the main contribution came from our communication, property, energy and Entertainment holdings in March.
Global equity markets had a mixed performance. US stock markets made the most gains on average, up 3.7%, supported by strong US economic data reports. European stock markets were down 1.7% on average, pressured by political uncertainty in Italy and a bailout program for Cyprus. While Asian stock markets were mixed, but ended slightly down 0.3% on average. China’s stock market significantly underperformed, down 6.5% in US dollar terms, due to disappointing economic data and measures to cool down the property sector. Meanwhile, Japan was up 4.0% in US$ term, supported by Yen weakness which benefits all export companies.
The Thai stock market gained 3.1% in US dollar terms, the 3rd best performer in Asian stock markets, following Japan (+4.0%) and Vietnam (+3.5%). During the month, the SET index moved in a wide range, made a new high at 1599.89 at mid-month, then fell 7.6% to 1478.97 within a week. Several negative rumors spread in the markets (capital controls, forced margin selling, and a potential change of prime minister), but were really just excuses for some healthy profit-taking. However, optimism about Thailand’s economic outlook and its potential as a regional economic center benefitting from the high GDP growth of Burma, Laos and Cambodia helped bolster positive sentiment in the Thai stock market.
On the political front, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was investigated by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) on her asset-liability submission, specifically her three loans to her husband’s company. The loans stated by Prime Mister Yingluck were consistent with her husband’s company financial documents, but the reported interest rate was not the same, with the Prime Minister reporting 1.00% while the company showed 2.50%-3.75%. This issue caused market concerned that the Prime Minister may have to resign from her position, but in the end, Yingluck was cleared of any wrong-doing.
Meanwhile, the government submitted its THB2.27 trillion infrastructure loan bill to the parliament for approval. After two long days of debate, the House of Representatives voted to approve the first reading of this bill with 284 votes in favor, 152 against, and 21 abstentions. The government intends to fast-track decree of this bill by submitting it for its second and third readings when parliament opens for a special session in late May to consider the 2014 Budget Bill. We hope to see the investment starting by 4Q13 or early next year.
This infrastructure project will create a big change in geopolitics and economies in this region, and Thailand will significantly benefit from its location, logistics and business-friendly, open policies. These projects will connect Southern China to Singapore, Myanmar to Vietnam and Thailand as a center. All combined, this regional population will total nearly 300 million people, most of which are the younger, working-age generation and big consumers. Currently, the border trade with our neighboring markets is estimated at THB1.2 trillion (Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia). With a good logistics and wider country coverage, this international trade value can grow significantly.
Meanwhile, the number of travelers has increased impressively during the first two months of this year, up 15.7%, reflecting an uptrend in demand growth due to general improvement in the economy and the tourism industry. In addition, Fitch upgraded Thailand’s sovereign rating from BBB to BBB+ with a stable outlook, due to a decline in political risk and low public debt. After this upgrade, the Fitch’s rating is in line with S&P and Moody’s.
On the economic front, the Ministry of Finance revised up its 2013 GDP growth forecast from 5.0% to 5.3%, based on an upward revision in consumption from 3.9% to 4.6% and downward revision in exports from 10.5% to 9.0%.
On the other hand, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) reported negative export growth (-4.6%) in February. The manufactured products showed no growth, due to weak global demand on electronics goods and low automobile exports as automakers gave priority to the Thai domestic market (to fulfill first-time car buyer program). Meanwhile, the current account was in surplus by US$1,568 million on strong growth in tourism with 2.3 million foreign tourist arrivals during this month (mainly from China, Malaysia and Russia), and a trade surplus.
The SET’s trading activity strongly increased, up 12.2% in March, from US$2,086 million to US$2,340 million of average daily volume. Foreigners were net buyers of US$248 million in March and are net buyers of US$168 million for the year. Retail investors turned more bullish this month, with participation at 66% from 53% on average in 2012. Foreigners and domestic mutual funds accounted for the remaining 18% and 16% of volume, respectively.
If you would like to discuss our performance and/or strategy, please give Katekao or me a call at 662-255-2040.
Best regards,
Doug
