ข้อคิดสุดยอดของบัฟเฟตต์/ดร. นิเวศน์ เหมวชิรวรากร

[thalucoz]

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[Packky]

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[Tihdnab]

คำกล่าวที่สี่ “แนวทางของเราก็คือ กำไรจากการไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลงแทนที่จะเปลี่ยนแปลง อย่างหมากฝรั่ง Wrigley มันเป็นเรื่องของการไม่เปลี่ยนแปลงที่ดึงดูดใจผม ผมไม่คิดว่ามันจะถูกเปลี่ยนโดยอินเตอร์เน็ต นั่นคือธุรกิจที่ผมชอบ” นั่นก็คือ บัฟเฟตต์ นั้น มองว่าธุรกิจที่ไม่เปลี่ยนแปลงไปง่ายด้วยปัจจัยอื่นโดยเฉพาะทางด้านของเท็ค โนโลยี จะถือว่าเป็นธุรกิจที่สามารถคาดการณ์ผลประกอบการได้ในระยะยาว ซึ่งเป็นปัจจัยสำคัญมากสำหรับเขาที่ต้องการลงทุนระยะยาวมากหรือตลอดไป ดังนั้น ถ้าอะไรที่อาจมีการเปลี่ยนแปลงไปได้ง่าย เขาก็มักจะหลีกเลี่ยงไม่ลงทุนแม้ว่าการเปลี่ยนแปลงบางทีอาจจะทำให้บริษัท หนึ่งมีผลประกอบการที่ก้าวกระโดดและทำให้หุ้นปรับตัวขึ้นได้มหาศาลอย่างหุ้น อินเตอร์เน็ตทั้งหลาย อย่างไรก็ตาม กิจการที่เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ง่ายก็มีความเสี่ยงสูงเกินกว่าที่บัฟเฟตต์จะรับได้

อ่านแล้ว รู้สึกแปลก ๆ

[jo7393]

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[KimVi]

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[py106]

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[imerlot]

53. Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless." -Warren Buffett
(ผู้โพสต์: แสดงว่า ถือเงินสดบ้างไว้ซื้อ ยามหุ้นลงหนักๆ อย่างปี2008ต.ค.-พ.ย มีBIG CAP เต็มport ไม่มีเงินสดเลย ขายก็ไม่ได้ เพราะลงเร็วมาก=“Maintain buying reserves")


54.“An argument is made that there are just too many question marks about the near future; wouldn’t it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose: “Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved,” etc. Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is never clear and you pay a very high price for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.” -Warren Buffett

55."The strategy we've adopted precludes our following standard diversification dogma. Many pundits would therefore say the strategy must be riskier than that employed by more conventional investors. We disagree. We believe that a policy of portfolio concentration may well decrease risk if it raises, as it should, both the intensity with which an investor thinks about a business and the comfort-level he must feel with its economic characteristics before buying into it." -Warren Buffett
(อันนี้=ไพ่ตีแตก ของ ดร.)

56."In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses-How to Value a Business, and How to Think about Market Prices. Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business who's earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now." -Warren Buffett
(comment?.. materially higher five, ten and twenty years=4x-10x)

57."We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest." -Warren Buffett

58."We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
(Wait ให้ Market ลงครั้งใหญ่ 3-4 ครั้งใน10-20ปี??)

source:53-58
http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2008 ... uotes.html

[imerlot]

เส็รจแล้ว ต่อด้วย


http://www.sarut-homesite.net/24-buffet ... very-year/

กลัวต้นฉบับดีๆอย่างนี้หาย copy แปะด้วยแล้วกัน

1. Choose Simplicity over Complexity

When investing, keep it simple. Do what’s easy and obvious.

If you don’t understand a business, don’t buy it.

2. Make Your Own Investment Decisions

Don’t listen to the brokers, the analysts, or the pundits. Figure it out for yourself.

Become a value investor. It’s proven to be a very rewarding technique over the long term.

3. Maintain Proper Temperament

Let other people overreact to the market.

To succeed in the market, you need only ordinary intelligence. But in addition, you need the kind of temperament to help you ride out the storms and stick to your long-term plans.

If you can stay cool while those around you are panicking, you can surely prevail.

4. Be Patient

Think 10 years, rather than 10 minutes

Don’t dwell on the price of stocks. Instead, study the underlying business, its earnings capacity and its future.

If the question is, “How long will you wait?” – “If we’re in the right place, we’ll wait indefinitely” says Buffet.

5. Buy Business, Not Stocks

Once you get into the right business, you can let everyone else worry about the stock market.

Business performance is the key to picking stocks. Study the long-term track record of any company that is on your buy list.

Buffet looks for following five main things before investing in a company.

(i) Business he can understand

(ii) Companies with favorable long-term prospects

(iii) Business operated by honest and competent people

(iv) Businesses priced very attractively

(v) Business with free cash flow

Don’t think about “stock in the short term.” Think about “business in the long term”.

6. Look for a Company that is a Franchise

Some businesses are “franchises”. Franchise generates free cash flows.

7. Buy Low-Tech, Not High-Tech

Successful investing is rarely a gee-whiz activity. It’s less often about rockets and lasers and more often about bricks, carpets, paint, shaving blades and insulation.

Do not be tempted by get-rich-quick deals involving relatively complex companies (e.g., high-tech companies).

They are the most unpredictable in the long run. Look for the absence of change. Look for the business whose only change in the future will be doing more business, e.g Gillette Blades.

8. Concentrate Your Stock Investments

A the “Noah’s Ark” style of investing – that is, a little of this, a little of that. Better to have a smaller number of investments with more of your money in each.

Portfolio concentration – the opposite of diversification – also has the power to focus the mind.

If you’re putting your eggs in only a few baskets, you’re far less likely to make investments on impulse or emotion.

9. Practice Inactivity, Not Hyperactivity

There are times when doing nothing is a sign of investing brilliance.

Be a decade’s trader, not a day trader.

10. Don’t Look at the Ticker

Tickers are all about prices. Investing is about a lot more than prices. It is about value. It is about wealth.

Abstain from looking at share prices every day. Study the playing field and not the scoreboard. Know the value of something rather than the price of everything.

11. View Market Downturns as Buying Opportunities

Market downturns aren’t body blows; they are buying opportunities.

Change your investing mind-set. Reprogram your thinking. Learn to like a sinking market because it presents great buying opportunity. Pounce when the three variables come together.

When a strong business with an enduring competitive advantage, strong management, and a low stock price come onto your investment screen.

12. Don’t Swing at Every Pitch

What if you had to predict how every stock in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 would do over the next few years?

In this scenario you have very poor chance of being correct. But if your job was to find only one stock among those 500 that would do well?

In this revised scenario you have a good chance. A few good investments are all that is needed.

13. Ignore the Macro; Focus on the Micro

The big things – the large trends that are external to the business – don’t matter.

It’s the little things, the things that are business-specific, that count.

It’s possible to imagine a cataclysm so terrible that the markets would collapse and not bounce back.

Externalities don’t matter – and you can’t predict them, anyway. And what can you do about them?

Focus on what you can know: the workings of a good business.

14. Take a Close Look at Management

The analysis begins – and sometimes ends – with one key question: Who’s in charge here?

Assess the management team before you invest. A investing in any company that has a record of financial or accounting shenanigans, (creative accounting, accounting jugglery). Weak accounting usually means weak business performance.

Strong companies do not have to resort to tricks.

15. Remember, The Emperor Wears No Clothes on Wall Street

Wall Street is the only place where people go to in Rolls Royce to get advice from people who take the subway.

Ignore the charts.

A value investor is not concerned with charts. Invest like Benjamin Graham.

Graham told investors to “search for discrepancies between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that business in the market.”

This is the key to value investing, and it’s far more productive than getting dizzy studying hundreds of stock charts.

Offer documents of most mutual funds say – in small print – that past performance is no guarantee of future success.

Buffet says the same thing about the market: If history revealed the path to riches, librarians would be rich.

16. Practice Independent Thinking

When investing, you need to think independently.

Make independent thinking one of your portfolio’s greatest assets. Being smart isn’t good enough, says Buffet.

Lots of high-IQ people fall victim to the herd mentality. Independent thinking is one of Buffet’s greatest strengths.

Make it one of your own.

17. Stay within Your Circle of Competence

Develop a zone of expertise, operative within that zone.

Write down the industries and businesses with which you feel most comfortable.

Confine your investments to them.

18. Ignore Stock Market Forecasts

Short-term forecasts of stock or bond prices are useless.

They tell you more about the forecaster than they tell you about the future.

Take the time you would spend listening to forecasts and instead use it to analyze a business’s track record.

Develop an investing strategy that does not depend on the overall movement of the market.

19. Understand “Mr. Market” and the “Margin of Safety”

What makes for a good investor?

A good investor is one who combines good business judgment with an ability to ignore the wild swings of the marketplace.

When the emotions start to swirl, remember Ben Graham’s “Mr.Market” concept, and look for a “margin of safety”.

Make sure that you also understand Buffet’s concepts of Mr. Market and the margin of safety.

Like the Lord, the market helps those who help themselves. But, unlike God, the market doesn’t forgive those who “know not what they do”.

Bide your time, and wait for Mr. Market to get depressed and lower stock prices enough to provide a margin-ofsafety buying opportunity.

20. Be Fearful when Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful

You can safely predict that people will be greedy, fearful, or foolish.

Trouble is you just can’t predict when or in what order.

Buy when people are selling and sell when people are buying.

21. Read, Read Some More, and Then Think

Mr. Warren Buffet spends something like six hours a day reading and an hour or two on the phone. The rest of the time, he thinks.

He therefore advises to get in the habit of reading. The best thing to start is to read Buffett’s annual reports and letters.

Finally, restrict your time only to things worth reading.

22. Use All Your Horsepower

How big is your engine, and how efficiently do you put it to work?

Warren Buffett suggests that lots of people have “400 – horsepower engines” but only 100 horsepower of output.

Smart people, in other words, often allow themselves to get distracted from the task at hand and act in irrational ways.

The person who gets full output from a 200-horse-power engine, says Buffett, is a lot better off.

Make sure that you have the right role models. Strive for rational behaviour, good habits, and proper temperament.

Write down the habits, practices and philosophies that you want to make your own.

Then be sure to keep track of them and eventually own them.

Financial success is a “matter of having the right habits”.

23. Learn from the Costly Mistakes of Others

This is self explanatory and need no comments!

24. Become a Sound Investor

Buffet says that Ben Graham was about “sound investing”. He wasn’t about brilliant investing or fads and fashions, and the good thing about sound investing is that it can make you wealthy if you are in not too much of a hurry, and it never makes you poor.

To become a sound investor, you need to develop sound investing habits.

Always fight the noise to get the real story.

Always practice continuous improvement.

It’s about finding and stepping over “one-foot hurdles” rather than developing the extraordinary skills needed to clear sevenfoot hurdles.

24 Buffett Ideas to win 365 battles every year

ที่มา
1.http://www.sarut-homesite.net/24-buffet ... very-year/
2.http://deepwealth.blogspot.com/2005/10/ ... ttles.html

[SW27]

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[untrataro25]

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[b4solid]

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[imerlot]

79 Must Read Quotes On Investing by Warren Buffet
http://www.minterest.com/warren-buffet- ... investing/

1.
‘Never invest in a business you cannot understand.’
2.
‘Always invest for the long term.’
3.
‘Buy a business, don’t rent stocks.’
4.
‘Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.’
5.
‘I really like my life. I’ve arranged my life so that I can do what I want.’
6.
‘We will only do with your money what we would do with our own.’
7.
‘If you don’t feel comfortable owning something for 10 years, then don’t own it for 10 minutes.’
8.
‘I am a better investor because I am a businessman and a better businessman because I am an investor.’
9.
‘Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.’
10.
‘The Stock Market is designed to transfer money from the Active to the Patient.’
11.
‘Stop trying to predict the direction of the stock market, the economy, interest rates, or elections.’
12.
‘I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for ten years.’
13.
‘I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.’
14.
‘For some reason, people take their cues from price action rather than from values. What doesn’t work is when you start doing things that you don’t understand or because they worked last week for somebody else. The dumbest reason in the world to buy a stock is because it’s going up.’
15.
‘We don’t get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we will wait, we’ll wait indefinitely.’
16.
‘As Buffet said in the speech, “He’s not looking at quarterly earnings projections, he’s not looking at next year’s earnings, he’s not thinking about what day of the week it is, he doesn’t care what investment research from any place says, he’s not interested in price momentum, volume or anything. He’s simply asking: What is the business worth?’
17.
‘Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise.’
18.
‘Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.’
19.
When asked how he became so successful in investing, Buffett answered: ‘we read hundreds and hundreds of annual reports every year.’
20.
‘When a management team with a reputation for brilliance joins a business with poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.’
21.
“. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.”
22.
‘Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they’re doing.’
23.
‘Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.’
24.
‘You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right – that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don’t have to worry about anybody else.’
25.
‘It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.’
26.
‘The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule.’
27.
‘Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.’
28.
‘I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.’
29.
‘Why not invest your assets in the companies you really like? As Mae West said, ‘Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.’
30.
‘Our favorite holding period is forever.’
31.
‘Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.’
32.
‘Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.’
33.
‘Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.’
34.
‘The critical investment factor is determining the intrinsic value of a business and paying a fair or bargain price.’
35.
‘Investors making purchases in an overheated market need to recognize that it may often take an extended period for the value of even an outstanding company to catch up with the price they paid.’
36.
‘Risk can be greatly reduced by concentrating on only a few holdings.’
37.
‘It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.’
38.
‘An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.’
39.
‘Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misappraised.’
40.
‘In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.’
41.
‘If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.’
42.
‘Cash never makes us happy, but it’s better to have the money burning a hole in Berkshire’s pocket than resting comfortably in someone else’s.’
43.
‘A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought.’
44.
‘I never buy anything unless I can fill out on a piece of paper my reasons. I may be wrong, but I would know the answer to that. “I’m paying $32 billion today for the Coca Cola Company because.” If you can’t answer that question, you shouldn’t buy it. If you can answer that question, and you do it a few times, you’ll make a lot of money.’
45.
‘The investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth.’
46.
‘You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong.’
47.
‘It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.’
48.
‘You ought to be able to explain why you’re taking the job you’re taking, why you’re making the investment you’re making, or whatever it may be. And if it can’t stand applying pencil to paper, you’d better think it through some more. And if you can’t write an intelligent answer to those questions, don’t do it.’
49.
‘Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.’
50.
‘An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes.’
51.
‘Do a lot of reading’ (On how to determine the value of a business)

52.
‘The investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth.’
53.
‘Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.’
54.
‘The fact that people will be full of greed, fear, or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable.’
55.
‘You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing.’
56.
‘Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.’
57.
‘I do not like debt and do not like to invest in companies that have too much debt, particularly long-term debt. With long-term debt, increases in interest rates can drastically affect company profits and make future cash flows less predictable.’
58.
‘We will reject interesting opportunities rather than over-leverage our balance sheet.’
59.
‘I always knew I was going to be rich. I don’t think I ever doubted it for a minute.’
60.
‘Turnarounds seldom turn.’
61.
‘If at first you do succeed, quit trying on investing.’
62.
‘I don’t measure my life by the money I’ve made. Other people might, but certainly don’t.’
63.
‘Anything can happen in stock markets and you ought to conduct your affairs so that if the most extraordinary events happen, that you’re still around to play the next day.’
64.
‘You shouldn’t own common stocks if a 50 per cent decrease in their value in a short period of time would cause you acute distress.’
65.
‘With few exceptions when a manager with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor economics, it is the reputation of the business which remains intact.’
66.
‘The business schools reward complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.’
67.
‘It’s not debt per say that overwhelms an individual corporation or country. Rather it is a continuous increase in debt in relation to income that causes trouble.’
68.
‘A great investment opportunity occurs when a marvelous business encounters a one-time huge, but solvable problem.’
69.
‘You do not adequately protect yourself by being half awake when other are sleeping.’
70.
‘We like to buy businesses, but we don’t like to sell them.’
71.
‘Money to some extent sometimes let you be in more interesting environments. But it can’t change how many people love you or how healthy you are.’
72.
‘It’s us fun being a gorse when the tractor comes along, or the blacksmith when the car comes along.’
73.
‘Enjoy your work and work for whom you admire.’
74.
‘With enough insider information and a million dollars, you can go broke in a year.’
75.
‘Read Ben Graham and Phil Fisher read annual reports, but don’t do equations with Greek letters in them.’
76.
‘In a commodity business, it’s very hard to be smarter than your dumbest competitor.’
77.
‘A hyperactive stock market is the pickpocket of enterprise.’
78.
‘Valuing a business is part art and part science.’
79.
‘Chains of habits are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken.’