Thai VI

I can't see any of my opinions are considered "Aggressive way".
And I don't mind if someone will see the thing different from me.
I may learn from them, from their prospective, if it seems reasonable to me.

Actually what I said is not opinion, it 's fact that could be proved.

Thank you for your suggestion with sincerely.

(Flyer) BIGC: Wanted core business growth story
Big C Supercenter (BIGC TB, Bt38.5, Underperform, Target: Bt31.0)
􀂃 Event: French retailer Carrefour, which operates in Thailand, has expressed its intent to team up
with a local Thai partner for expansion. The managing director of Carrefour has been quoted as
saying, We are open to any local retailers that are interested in expanding their hypermarket
stores in Thailand.
􀂃 Impact: BIGC is the first potential partner which comes to mind. Carrefour mentioned that it might
try a smaller store format as a new venture, which is similar to an idea that Big C Supercenter
(BIGC) has expressed to us in meetings. BIGC is also related to Casino of France, and potentially
any sort of collaboration will be easier to negotiate between like-minded French management
teams supporting it from the top. BIGC is also a smaller fish compared with its competition and in
need of a new growth story since new zoning laws will restrict growth after 2006.
􀂃 Even if something happens, it will start small and take time. Apart from the statements by
Carrefour in the press, nothing concrete has been announced. We believe that a potential team-up
will start out as a pilot venture and take time to expand, which means that profit contributions
might take awhile to become significant.
􀂃 At 15x FY06E PER, we are still waiting for a better core business growth story. BIGC has shown
strength recently, with potential market speculation over a future BIGC/Carrefour deal. Perhaps
BIGCs major shareholder, Casino, could sell part of its stake. Despite this potential opportunity,
we believe that BIGCs current 15x FY06E PER market valuation demands a tangible core
business growth story that has yet to exist. If BIGC cannot deliver strong growth after 2006, the
current valuation becomes tenuous.
􀂃 Action and recommendation: Management expects only same-store sales in the low single digit
this year, which might not even beat inflation. Competition is also fierce, with the company
competing against international players and core business expansion is limited post 2006. At 15x
FY06E PER, maintain Underperform.
Fig 7 Valuation BIGC
EPS growth (%) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div yield (%)
04A 05E 06E 04A 05E 06E 04A 05E 06E 04A 05E 06E
BIGC -35.6 0.6 27.3 19.2 19.1 15.0 8.1 8.0 6.2 2.2 2.4 2.7
MACQ universe 29.7 12.1 6.5 11.3 10.0 9.3 8.4 6.7 5.8 3.5 5.0 5.0
MACQ universe (Ex-PTT/PTTEP) 27.2 3.6 -3.5 10.6 10.2 10.5 7.9 7.2 6.3 4.0 5.6 4.8