Jeff’s Asia tech class

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https://jefftowson.com/membership_conte ... odcast-59/

Jeff’s Asia Tech class 13/12/2020

Tesla vs Nio - And why first mover advantage in tech can suck 13/12/2020
Broadcast from podcast
Both Tesla and Nio in the tech innovation
Network effect can suck sometimes
He wrote Farfeth in an article last week.
This is not investment advise.
Nio was a beginning clear copy of Tesla which was discovered 2002-2003 a long time in industry.
Nio started in 2014 in Shainghai by William Li. Long history in auto he has copied Tesla in a way. But not in the charging vehicle but in swabbing battery for Nio. Nio came out in Premium vehicle and premium price and bringing down the price like Tesla playbook.
In a way of autonomous vehicle.
Ramp up very fast to raise large amount of money from anyone in China including Tencents and Baido and Singapore and more.
GM build car empired with joint venture in China as old model.
The point of that of partnership with government doesn’t mean anything but regulators. Nio is China electric automobile which state back up mechanical to get it in there. Nio went to public very quickly.
Nio sale about 50,000 cars Tesla sale about a million car. First moving advantage seem like advantage.Now Tesla is in China and other competitor like XPeng and couple more.
Is the fact that Nio is behind is advantage or disadvantages.
Growth in China that why Tesla went to China it is a must have market.
The risk section for Ellon Musk one risk after the next. If the sale go up everything for 10 K fold.
Tesla risks are delay or complications designing manufacturing production new models no experience most suppliers are single source batteries competitors the cost of opening new stores depending on government regulation resale guarantees and go on.
First mover in technology is different from other company in serious innovation.
Advantages for first mover are
Temporary supply and demand imbalance, so demand could be higher than supply, performance increases with your experience at s curve, switching costs lower, networks effects can collapse the market, learning effects.
Soft advantage for the first mover are
Brand royalty, technologically leadership, patenting and scared asset.

Disadvantages of technology innovation
Failure rate is super high, difficult r &d and expensive projects, supplies and manufacturing issues, distribution.
If you are a second mover you don’t have to do what first mover do.
Example, Pingdodo sell cheap stuffs where the logistics already there and fall into place a couple places before. If you are automobile you need gas station and road.
Customer preferences not sure about themselves yet if you r a first mover.
Lists of famous tech inventions
VDO camera follower won, smart phone Apple won after IBM invented, first VDO game was invented Nintendo was second mover won.
This is the question for you to ask yourself
whether you want to be Tesla or Nio.

Factor and impact of timing
1. Timing is number one when the customer need to become known and technology infrastructure.
2. Competition or big players on arising
3. Tesla has to move fast for competitive entry
4. Scales in network effects and learning effects
5. Big resources big capital knowing that small firm can’t do it
6. Reputation of Ellon Musk
Keep list for valuation
1. What you able to do depending on your past dependant to make technology successful.
2. Resource view of competition is the reflection of activities.Can someone reproduce your product? There is time and money to replicate other products.Social interactions, talent of a person who come to work for you.
3. Core competencies you don’t want to be good at one thing but you want to be good at many others. Such as Alibaba good at platform
Ask yourself whether you want to be a first mover or a fast follower.
The part of give me pause is autonomous vehicle whether the first mover will be a winner.