จากการซื้อหุ้นมาตามตำราทุกอย่าง หุ้นก็ดีมีผลตอบแทนดีทุกอย่าง
เอาล่ะ ทีนี้จะขายเมื่อไรครับ ผมหาอ่านได้น้อยมาก ใครมีตำราดี ๆ ขอให้ช่วยแนะนำหน่อยครับ
บางท่านบอกให้ขายเมื่อ fully-valued โอเค แต่เมื่อผลประกอบการดีขึ้น Value ก็เพิ่มมากขึ้น ในปีที่ผลประกอบการสุดยอดราคาก็วิ่งตามไป ถ้าขาย วอร์เรนบอกก็เหมือนขายซุปเปอร์สตาร์ออกจากทีม เพราะหุ้นมันทำผลงานดี จะขายทำไม
ฟัง ๆ ดูมันลักลั่นย้อนแย้งพอสมควรน่ะครับ มีใครมีหนังสือทำนองนี้มั๊ยครับ
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How to Sell stock like Warren Buffett
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Nevercry.boy
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How to Sell stock like Warren Buffett
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Nevercry.boy
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How to Sell stock like Warren Buffett
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มีคำตอบจากฟิชเชอร์ครับ คนนี้เป็น เพื่อนและเป็นคนที่บัฟเฟตต์แกคบหาด้วย ลองดูครับ ส่วนหนึ่งของหนังสือ ดร.นิเวศน์ เคยแปลไว้
So when should you sell?
The best answer was provided by the elegant Philip A. Fisher, who died in 2003 at the age of 96 after a 74-year career as a money manager. In his important book, "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits," published in 1958 and currently available in a paperback edition, he wrote, "It is only occasionally," he wrote, "that there is any reason for selling at all."
The occasional reason? According to Fisher, it is the deterioration of a company's underlying business. "When companies deteriorate, they usually do so for one of two reasons. Either there has been a deterioration of management, or the company no longer has the prospect of increasing the markets for its product in the way it formerly did."
In other words, sell if something has gone wrong -- not with the economy or the market, but with the business itself. A key product has failed, or new competition has driven down prices, or management gets distracted.
Also, realize that you can't know when to sell a stock unless you know why you bought it. For instance, I am a big fan of Starbuck's (SBUX), but I would sell shares in an instant if I heard an announcement that the company was branching out from coffee and entering the hamburger business. In coffee, Starbucks has almost no competition. In hamburgers, it would be up against four or five experts.
There are other reasons to sell. You might, after all, need the money. Stocks are long-term investments (that is, you should plan to hold shares for five years or more), but emergencies come up, and your cash reserves might not be sufficient.
Also, consider selling if a stock has risen so much that it makes your portfolio lopsided. I had this pleasant problem with the Apollo Group (APOL), a for-profit education company whose shares rose from $15 to $90 between 2000 and 2004. If the other companies you own rose, say, 20 percent over the same period, then, of your total holdings, Apollo could have represented one-fifth or more. That's too much. The solution is to sell some Apollo and use the proceeds to buy more of your other stocks. Or, avoid capital gains taxes by donating Apollo shares to charity.
Finally, sell when you have the slightest doubts about the integrity or focus of management. When a company is accused of deceptive accounting, for example, examine the charges and, if they seem serious, sell the stock. Don't wait for the jury's verdict.
So why did I sell Shaw? Not because I had doubled my money. And not because I was worried about the economy or the stock market as a whole.
I sold Shaw for a couple reasons. First, despite the rise in the stock, the company had consistently failed to earn as much as I thought it would. That is, its business wasn't as good as I thought it would be. When I first wrote about Shaw, it carried a price-to-earnings ratio of 5; in May, the P/E ratio was 28. Earnings did not keep pace with the rising stock price. I knew why I had bought Shaw: it had problems, but it was cheap. It still had problems, but it was no longer a bargain.
Second, I was bothered by the activities of Shaw's CEO, Jim Bernhard, who became chairman of the Louisiana Democratic Party. Bernhard may be a talented guy, but he also appeared to be a headline-seeker; I want the person who runs my company to work only for me.
Writing an entire column about a single stock -- and then recommending it at the end -- is an endeavor I have learned not to repeat. Still, the Shaw story turned out fine. I made some money, and so did many of my readers, and, right now, on Aug. 19, Shaw is trading below $17, a decline of four bucks since I sold it. My only worry is that in the next few months, Shaw will double again and again and….
A version of this article originally appeared in Kiplinger's Personal Finance. Of the stocks mentioned, Glassman owns Starbucks.
So when should you sell?
The best answer was provided by the elegant Philip A. Fisher, who died in 2003 at the age of 96 after a 74-year career as a money manager. In his important book, "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits," published in 1958 and currently available in a paperback edition, he wrote, "It is only occasionally," he wrote, "that there is any reason for selling at all."
The occasional reason? According to Fisher, it is the deterioration of a company's underlying business. "When companies deteriorate, they usually do so for one of two reasons. Either there has been a deterioration of management, or the company no longer has the prospect of increasing the markets for its product in the way it formerly did."
In other words, sell if something has gone wrong -- not with the economy or the market, but with the business itself. A key product has failed, or new competition has driven down prices, or management gets distracted.
Also, realize that you can't know when to sell a stock unless you know why you bought it. For instance, I am a big fan of Starbuck's (SBUX), but I would sell shares in an instant if I heard an announcement that the company was branching out from coffee and entering the hamburger business. In coffee, Starbucks has almost no competition. In hamburgers, it would be up against four or five experts.
There are other reasons to sell. You might, after all, need the money. Stocks are long-term investments (that is, you should plan to hold shares for five years or more), but emergencies come up, and your cash reserves might not be sufficient.
Also, consider selling if a stock has risen so much that it makes your portfolio lopsided. I had this pleasant problem with the Apollo Group (APOL), a for-profit education company whose shares rose from $15 to $90 between 2000 and 2004. If the other companies you own rose, say, 20 percent over the same period, then, of your total holdings, Apollo could have represented one-fifth or more. That's too much. The solution is to sell some Apollo and use the proceeds to buy more of your other stocks. Or, avoid capital gains taxes by donating Apollo shares to charity.
Finally, sell when you have the slightest doubts about the integrity or focus of management. When a company is accused of deceptive accounting, for example, examine the charges and, if they seem serious, sell the stock. Don't wait for the jury's verdict.
So why did I sell Shaw? Not because I had doubled my money. And not because I was worried about the economy or the stock market as a whole.
I sold Shaw for a couple reasons. First, despite the rise in the stock, the company had consistently failed to earn as much as I thought it would. That is, its business wasn't as good as I thought it would be. When I first wrote about Shaw, it carried a price-to-earnings ratio of 5; in May, the P/E ratio was 28. Earnings did not keep pace with the rising stock price. I knew why I had bought Shaw: it had problems, but it was cheap. It still had problems, but it was no longer a bargain.
Second, I was bothered by the activities of Shaw's CEO, Jim Bernhard, who became chairman of the Louisiana Democratic Party. Bernhard may be a talented guy, but he also appeared to be a headline-seeker; I want the person who runs my company to work only for me.
Writing an entire column about a single stock -- and then recommending it at the end -- is an endeavor I have learned not to repeat. Still, the Shaw story turned out fine. I made some money, and so did many of my readers, and, right now, on Aug. 19, Shaw is trading below $17, a decline of four bucks since I sold it. My only worry is that in the next few months, Shaw will double again and again and….
A version of this article originally appeared in Kiplinger's Personal Finance. Of the stocks mentioned, Glassman owns Starbucks.
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