เรากลัว/กังวล การส่งออก/หุ้นส่งออก กันมากไปหรือเปล่า !!!

[LOSO]

การส่งออกไปตลาดใหม่ขยายตัวสูงถึงร้อยละ 24.7 ขณะที่ตลาดหลักก็มีแนวโน้มปรับตัวดีขึ้น โดยขยายตัวร้อยละ 11.0  

ตลาดใหม่ที่ขยายตัวในอัตราสูง ได้แก่  ยุโรปตะวันออก (ร้อยละ 34.4) ลาตินอเมริกา  (ร้อยละ 32.5)  ตะวันออกกลาง(ร้อยละ 29.1) อินโดจีนและพม่า(ร้อยละ 27.7) ออสเตรเลีย(ร้อยละ 27.4) ไต้หวัน(ร้อยละ 26.5) จีน(ร้อยละ 26.0) แคนาดา(ร้อยละ 24.4) เกาหลีใต้(ร้อยละ 22.6) และ ฮ่องกง(ร้อยละ 19.0)


ตลาดหลักที่ขยายตัวเพิ่มขึ้น ที่สำคัญ ได้แก่ สหรัฐฯร้อยละ 16.5 สหภาพยุโรปร้อยละ 14.6  ญี่ปุ่นร้อยละ 6.9 และ อาเซียน(5)ร้อยละ 6.7

[LOSO]

การส่งออกเดือนกันยายน 2549  มีมูลค่า 12,048.2 ล้านเหรียญสหรัฐฯ เพิ่มขึ้นจากเดือนเดียวกัน      ปีก่อนร้อยละ 15.3  การส่งออกทำสถิติสูงสุดต่อเนื่องเป็นเดือนที่สาม

[LOSO]

ส่งผลให้ดุลการค้าเกินดุลเป็นประวัติการณ์ถึง 1,506.9 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐ ทำให้ขาดดุล 9 เดือน เหลือเพียง 363.2 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐ

[LOSO]

อุตสาหกรรมใด  สินค้าตัวไหนกลุ่มไหน  ได้ประโยชน์ ..........................


ลองดู ......................................

[thawattt]

ไม่ได้กลัวธุรกิจส่งออกครับ

ถ้าธุรกิจดังกล่าว สามารถ Hedge ในตัวได้ แบบนี้ก็ยังเล่นได้ครับ

เช่น นำเข้าวัตถุดิบจากต่างประเทศ แล้วส่งออกไปต่างประเทศ กิน Spread แบบนี้ Hedge ในตัว

หรือส่งออกไป แต่มีหนี้ต่างประเทศ แบบนี้ ก็ Hedge ในตัว

หรือถ้าเป็นธุรกิจที่ปรับแต่งให้เหมาะสมได้ เช่น สามารถจำหน่ายทั้งในประเทศและต่างประเทศได้ โดยปรับสัดส่วนการซื้อขายตามภาวะ เช่น ถ้าค่าเงินบาทแข็ง ก็ขายในประเทศสัดส่วนมากหน่อย แต่ถ้าค่าเงินบาทอ่อนตัว ก็ปรับสัดส่วนเป็นต่างประเทศมากหน่อย เป็นต้น

ผมว่าอยู่ที่บริษัทนั้น ๆ มีวิธีการบริหารความเสี่ยงเป็นหรือไม่

ผมเจอธุรกิจส่งออกตัวหนึ่ง นักวิเคราะห์บอกว่าน่าจะขาดทุนจากอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน ปรากฏเอาเข้าจริง ๆ กับทำกำไรจากอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนได้ ทั้งที่ส่งออก เพราะรู้จักบริหารความเสี่ยงเรื่องค่าเงิน โดยการทำ Hedge ไว้ล่วงหน้า ไม่ว่าจะเป็น Forward หรือ Swap หรืออื่น ๆ นะครับ ลองไปดูธุรกิจเจ้าสัปปะรด ที่ถือหุ้นยางมะตอยซิครับ ทำธุรกิจส่งออกด้วย แต่กลับมีกำไรค่าเงินจากอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนได้ แปลกดีไหมครับ สวนทางชาวบ้านได้ เก่งจริงๆ ครับ

[อองตวน]

เศรษฐกิจไทยพึ่งพึงน้ำมันสูง พอราคาน้ำมันลง
ดุลการค้าทำ record high ทีเดียว

[เพื่อน]

จากข่าวบอกว่า เป็นสินค้าเกษตรครับ

แต่ไม่รู้ว่าตัวไหน

อาจเป็น ข้าว อาหารทะเล ยาง น้ำตาลฯลฯลฯ

ใครมีข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมบ้างครับ

เดี๋ยวจะลองๆเลียบๆหาดูหน่อย....

[เพื่อน]

หาข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมมาได้บางส่วน

ผลิตภัณฑ์เกษตร ประเภทอาหาร การส่งออกขยายตัวเพิ่มขึ้นของครึ่งปีแรกเมื่อเทียบกับปี2548

1. กุ้ง ปริมาณส่งออกเพิ่มขึ้น 21.3%  มูลค่าส่งออกเพิ่มขึ้น 23.8%

2.ทูน่ากระป๋องและทูน่าแปรรูป 15.7%  "------------------" 18.5%

3.เนื้อไก่และผลิตภัณฑ์แปรรูป 14.9%  "------------------" 17.2%

4.สัปปะรดกระป๋องและผลไม้แปรรูป 16.9%  "-------------"14.9%

5.น้ำผักผลไม้                        32.8%  "-------------------" 25.2%

6. เครื่องเทศเครื่องปรุงรส       10%    "-------------------" 10.5%

[เพื่อน]

ที่มา

http://www.nfi.or.th/stat/file/forecast_sep149.doc

มีข้อมูลที่น่าสนใจอยู่อีกพอสมควรครับ

[เพื่อน]

น้ำตาล กับ น้ำมันปาล์ม   ส่งออกแย่ลงมาก

แต่น้ำมันปาล์มแปรรูปในประเทศ น่าจะดีขึ้น เพราะต้นทุนวัตถุดิบถูกลง (ในขณะที่ไม่สนใจจะส่งออกอยู่แล้ว เพราะราคาส่งออกต้องไปสู้กับเพื่อนบ้านที่ราคาถูกกว่ามาก)

[kaiyai99]

http://www.price.moc.go.th/csei/data/au ... 1_0849.pdf

T
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[kaiyai99]

http://www.ops2.moc.go.th/meeting/X_com10B.xls

แล้วก็

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[เพื่อน]

2. การคํานวณดัชนี เปนดัชนีการกระจาย (Diffusion Index) ซึ่งเปนดัชนีที่มีคุณสมบัติเดนในการเปนตัวชี้นํา (leading indicator) และ
แสดงทิศทางการเติบโต (growth) ของภาวะธุรกิจ จากการ แปลงขอมูลเชิงคุณภาพ (qualitative) ใหเปนขอมูลเชิงปริมาณ (quantitative) โดย
กําหนดคาคําตอบที่ไดรับจากผูตอบแบบสอบถาม คือ เพิ่มขึ้นใหคะแนน เทากับ 1 เทาเดิมใหคะแนน เทากับ 0.5  และ ลดลงใหคะแนนเทากับ 0
จากนั้นนําคะแนนทั้งหมดมารวมกัน หารดวยจํานวนผูตอบแบบทั้งหมด แลวคูณดวย 100 จะไดดัชนีของแตละคาบเวลา ดัชนีจะมีคาสูงสุดเทา
กับ 100 และคาต่ําสุดเทากับ 0

ข้อมูลของคุณKaiyai99 ....ผมงงๆ มันคือค่าดัชนีที่ได้คะแนนจากแบบสอบถามใช่มั้ยครับ คล้ายๆเป็นค่าความเชื่อมั่นทางอุตสาหกรรมรึปล่าวครับ

สำหรับข้อมูลที่2 ระบุหมายเหตุว่า ปี2549เป็นตัวเลขเบื้องต้น...? หมายความว่ายังไม่ได้ปรับตามจริงรึปล่าวครับ แต่ก็เห็นการบันทึกชื่อไฟล์ระบุวันที่20/10/2549 ก็งงๆอยู่เหมือนกันครับ

[LOSO]

Is Japan Near Sunrise?

With the Abe administration newly installed and the Japanese economy on the mend, investors are beginning to take a second look at the Japanese bourse. Will Japan live up to upbeat expectations?


26th of September 2006 saw Shinzo Abe sworn in as Japan's new Prime Minister. Popularly known for his uncompromising stance as the former Chief Negotiator on the issue of the abductions of Japanese nationals by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea ( North Korea) in 2002, Abe is also the newly-elected President of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Among the tasks listed on the economic agenda of the new Japanese premier, the promotion of economic growth, cutting of government spendings to eliminate the country's massive budget deficit (which is higher than other industralized countries in the world) by the year 2011, as well as the closing of the income gap between the rich and the poor, have been highlighted as some of the key areas which will take the centre stage of his economic reforms.

Will his reforms help Japan shake off its years of economic austerity?


Economic Barometers Read Positive

The decrease in the country's unemployment rate and the picking up of household income, consumer spending as well as business confidence, have all shown signs of Japan's progressive economic revivification, emerging from years of deflation. On top of these, the Japanese government had forecast that its economy will grow by 2.5% this year. Latest data unveiled by the highly influential Tankan survey report on Japan's third quarter economic performance have indicated that the country's employment rate has grown by 0.3% year-on-year in August, and have confirmed tight labour market conditions, mainly in the non-manufacturing sector.

On 14 July, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has put an end to the zero-interest rate policy which has lasted close to 6 years since the year 2000; interest rates were raised by 25 basis points to 0.25%. Just on 13 October, BOJ's Governor Toshihiko Fukui said that the Japanese central bank will not rule out the possibility of raising its policy target rate again by the end of this year. On the possible future rate hikes, some lawmakers and business leaders are worried that raising rates too soon might stifle the economy's nascent economic rebound.

Adopting a sanguine view on the situation, Henderson Global Investors' Co-Fund Manager for Henderson Japanese Equity Fund, Michael Wood-Martin, points out that, "While some commentators fear that rates have been raised too soon, in the face of sluggish inflationary indicators, the BOJ is taking a more sensible view of the positive trends emanating from the economy. Real estate prices are recovering, corporate spending is on the rise and the labour market is tightening - giving reasons for the BOJ to gradually start its tightening monetary policy." He expects that rates will probably be raised gently over the coming year with increases being well-flagged to the market.

Lion Capital's Portfolio Manager (Japanese Equities), Wee Ban Yew, also shares Wood-Martin's views that interest rates will be raised gradually. He perceives the increase in raw material prices, land prices, rental rates as well as rising wages due to a tight labour market as reflections of a strong growth in Japan's domestic demand. This will eventually lead to higher economic growth and profits for Japanese companies, and with improved balance sheets, most Japanese companies may shrug off the impact of a gradual increase in interest rates. His perspective of the response of Japanese companies to the rate hike was confirmed by the "Regional Economic Report" released on 19 October 2006 by the Bank of Japan. It has been reported that the impact of the rate hike has been limited, and that Japanese companies' capital spending plans have not been much affected. In fact, according to the report, fund demand by small- and medium-sized enterprises have been recovering well, despite the rise in lending rates. However, Wee is of the view that the BOJ has been keeping rates steady since the hike in July this year, and that the slowing down of Japan's second-quarter real GDP growth (which may stay muted in the third quarter) as well as a non-acute rise in the country's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) suggest that rates will remain unchanged until the year-end.


Upbeat Sentiments

Business executives are holding their most bullish view on the Japanese economy they have ever been in the past 2 years, according to the quarterly Tankan survey report released by the BOJ on 2 October 2006. The survey results have also shown that large companies expected their capital spendings to increase by 11.5% for the fiscal year through March 2007. Large manufacturers also said that they planned to increase capital spendings by 16.9% for the same period. Such strong business confidence is a boon to Japan's economy.

Wee views Japan's economic recovery as a structural and sustainable one. On top of the abating of the non-performing loans in Japan's banking sector, Japanese companies have also embarked on extensive restructuring in the past few years, achieving profitability even beyond the peak of the economy bubble, according to the fund manager. He believes that, strong balance sheets and cashflows are encouraging Japanese corporations to increase their capital expenditure for revenue expansion as well as to raise their global competitiveness. With a healthy corporate sector, employment has been improving sharply. He expects this to lead to the uptick of Japan's domestic consumption in the coming years.

From Wood-Martin's point of view, Japan's economic recovery is becoming more broad-based, as corporate spending is expanding to include the non-manufacturing sector as well. According to the fund manager, this will potentially benefit full-time employment, spawning a concurrent increase in both consumer spending and corporate expenditure. Henderson believes that these factors spell positive for "a sustainable domestic economic expansion" for Japan.

On the future orientation of Japan's economic reforms under the new leader, Wood-Martinsays that Abe looks set to continue ex-premier Koizumi's economic policies, and that the government will be putting in place policies which will encourage Japanese companies to "maintain their focuses on profit growth and raise returns to their shareholders".

Wee expects the government to implement economic policies which will foster new areas of value-added industries, leverage on Asia's economic growth, as well as to build regulatory frameworks to encourage investments within Japan.


Crucial Diplomacy

Abe has expressed that Japan's restoration of amicable country ties with China and South Korea is of great significance, and that it will set the "cornerstones for stability in East Asia". Improvements in bilateral ties with China – currently one of Japan's largest trade partners - will potentially bring about greater trade and investment benefits to Japan, on top of the existing ones. Bolstering diplomatic ties with South Korea, on the other hand, will lead to stronger regional economic co-operation between both countries, as South Korea's president Roh Moo-Hyun has always called for. This translates into immense opportunities for economic growth for Japan and other regional Asian economies.

Commenting on the new premier's wish to improve ties with its Asian neighbours, Wood-Martin points out that "close relationships are needed for economic prosperity within the region to persist", and that as the youngest post-war leader, Abe is "in a position to promote Japan's role in the global political and economic environment".

Wee also sees this diplomatic move in positive light. He says, "By rebuilding ties with China and South Korea, Japan can enhance sales channels into these high growth economies. This can be established in the form of economic partnership agreements and free trade agreements, or simply more acceptance of Japanese goods by consumers through the warming of relations." However, while these notes are positive, the fund manager feels that this would not have much impact in the short term, as many Japanese companies already have operations in China and South Korea.

Therefore, the mission to ameliorate diplomatic ties with China and South Korea is one of crucial importance to Japan.


Investing in Japan

Obviously, many investors who had bagged extensive gains in the second half of 2005 have staggered towards a more risk-averse stance upon the sharp correction of the Japanese bourse (along with the other global markets) in May this year. During the correction, sharp declines are especially evident in the prices of small cap stocks. The star questions on the mind of many investors, we believe, are: "Is the time ripe to invest in Japanese equity funds?" and "What are the potential risks?" Lion Capital and Henderson share with us their standpoints on these issues.

The fund manager from Henderson commented that "Japan is a notable laggard not only to major markets, but also to markets in the Asian region. Coupled with its currency weakness, Japan has been one of the worst performing market, year-to-date." Nevertheless, he was also quick to point out that Japan's market valuation at the current levels would appear to offer good value, given that its economic activity remains robust.

Representing Lion Capital's views, Wee says that heexpects to see an uptrend in the market in the longer term, albeit market volatility in the short term will continue. He also highlighted that the key risks which the Japanese economy could face will likely come from an expected slower global economic growth next year, due to higher global interest rates. He added that, "As many Japanese companies operate in the global economy, demand and profits will be affected."

However, the fund manager believes that Japan's recovery will be sustainable due to corporate recovery. He also pointed out that there is a structural change in the share ownership of Japanese companies where return-focused shareholders such as pension fund managers, foreign investors and retail investors are now key investors. As a result, Japanese companies' managements have shifted towards profit-orientation and shareholder value-add generation in setting their objectives. Wee also expects that the strong global competitiveness of Japanese companies in many technological fields will help to establish themselves further in the global context.

Having looked at both fund managers' projections for the Japanese market, going forward, we also asked for their comments on how their flagship Japanese equity funds – namely, Henderson Japanese Equity Fund, Lion Capital Japan Fund, and Lion Capital Japan Growth Fund - would be strategically positioned for future growth.

Wood-Martin revealed that the Henderson Japanese Equity Fund has reduced its positions in defensive areas and commodities, and has been increasing its exposure to banking stocks, as they are cheaply rated with positive profit prospects. He also mentioned that the fund will maintain its large commitment to the service area which Henderson believes will benefit from the expected expansion of Japan's domestic economy.

Lion Capital is of the view that growth stocks would appear to be attractively priced since very little premium is currently attached to their growth potential. Weesays, for Lion Capital's Japanese equity funds, that they are "focused on accumulating such companies now". Assuming the global economy does not enter a sharp and prolonged slowdown, Lion Capital expects "any short-term weakness to be brief and the structural uptrend to remain intact as corporate Japan remains healthy", maintaining an optimistic outlook for Japan's economy and stock market in the medium to long term.

Currently, at Fundsupermart.com, we expect Earnings Growth for the Japanese market to rise from 2.9% in 2006 to 10.8% in 2007, with the expected market valuations (indicated by the Price-Earnings Ratio) for the years 2006, 2007 and 2008 forecast at 26.0 X, 23.4 X and 21.7 X respectively.

[LOSO]

No Signs Of Economic Slowdown In Japan


Analysts are optimistic that the leading indicators don't point to an economic slowdown, because stocks have resumed their upward trend and the outlook for the services sector and the jobs market remain positive.

06 October 2006
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan's index of leading economic indicators stood below the boom-or-bust threshold of 50 for the second straight month in August, the government said Friday, due to a narrowing in the spread between short- and long-term interest rates and declines in Japanese stocks.

Analysts are optimistic that the leading indicators don't point to an economic slowdown, because stocks have resumed their upward trend and the outlook for the services sector and the jobs market remain positive.

"The stock market is rebounding, which influences consumer sentiment and sales expectations," said Takuji Aida, chief economist for Japan at Barclays Capital.

"Services demand is expanding, and that's creating labor demand, so going forward per capita wages could increase," he said.

Japan's index of leading economic indicators in August stood at 20.0, down from 27.3 in the previous month, according to data from the Cabinet Office.

That was above expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones, who estimated on average the leading indicators index would be 10.0.

The leading index compares the performances of data known as good indicators for gauging the future course of the economy. A reading above 50 points to economic expansion over the short term while a level below 50 heralds contraction.

Of the 12 sets of data included in the leading indicators, falls in the indexes of interest rate spreads and the Tokyo Stock Exchange weighed on the headline index, a government official told reporters at a briefing.

Leading indicators also fell as small- and medium-sized enterprises lowered their sales forecasts, the official said.

The interest rate spread narrowed to 1.19 percentage points in August from 1.56 percentage points three months earlier, according to the data.

When the spread between short- and long-term interest rates narrows, that is counted as a negative in the leading indicators because it could show that investors expect the economy to slow over the very long term, leading to lower interest rates.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange was up 29.0% on year in August, a slowdown compared with the 46.1% rise three months earlier, the data showed.

The diffusion index measuring small firms' sales forecasts fell to 15.4 from 18.6 three months earlier. The diffusion index measures the number of firms who think sales will increase minus the number of companies who predict sales will fall.

The coincident index for August stood at 77.8, higher than 75.0 in the previous month, but below a forecast of 88.9 by economists. The coincident index measures the current state of the economy.

The rise in August marks the fifth consecutive month that the coincident index has stood above 50. Gains in industrial production, electricity usage and the ratio of job offers to job applicants contributed to the rise in the coincident index, the data showed.

Other data released Friday showed Japan's September foreign exchange reserves rose $2.53 billion on month to a new record high of $881.27 billion as the value of the nation's holdings of U.S. Treasurys increased.

The increase in the nation's reserves, which include convertible foreign currencies, gold and International Monetary Fund special drawing rights, follows a $6.81 billion rise in August and a $7.06 billion gain in July.

The seventh consecutive month of rises was mainly due to lower U.S. bond yields and higher interest income from asset holdings, a Finance Ministry official told reporters at a briefing. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices.

[jaychou]

เอ...ญี่ปุ่นเค้าฟื้นนี่ควรเล่นหุ้นอะไรดีครับ

ฟุรุกาว่า เม็ดโก้ นิปป้อน โนมูระ หรือชูโอมารูดี?

จำได้แค่เนี้ยะ หุ้นญี่ปุ่น

แนะนำด้วยครับกัปตัน

[LOSO]

BOJ Holds Robust View of Japan's Economy
The Bank of Japan said Thursday that the economy as a whole is expanding moderately thanks to high profitability in the corporate sector and strong domestic demand.

19 October 2006
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The Bank of Japan said Thursday that the economy as a whole is expanding moderately thanks to high profitability in the corporate sector and strong domestic demand. "The economy as a whole expanded moderately as all regions were on an expansion or recovery trend, although there were regional differences," the central bank said in its "Regional Economic Report" released Thursday.

Two out of 9 regions upgraded their individual economic assessments from the previous regional report in July.

The upward revision of the report is the first since April this year, an official at the BOJ said.

The report was published after the BOJ held its quarterly branch managers' meeting Thursday in Tokyo. It was the first quarterly report since the BOJ scrapped its zero-interest-rate policy in July.

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui continued to hold an optimistic view on future economy.

"The Japanese economy continued expanding, and a long-lasting economic recovery will continue," Fukui said at the opening of the quarterly branch managers' meeting.

He said that the central bank continues to aim to achieve sustainable economic recovery with price stability by managing monetary policy appropriately based on developments of the economy and prices.

Meanwhile, Masahiro Samejima, the BOJ's Osaka branch manager, said the Kansai region of western Japan has seen limited impact from the slowdown of the U.S. economy.

"There hasn't been much effect on" the Kansai region, which centers on Osaka, Samejima said at a news conference after the branch managers' meeting.

Samejima also said the Kansai region - home to major electronics companies such as Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. and Sharp Corp. - doesn't have to worry much about any impact from information-technology-related inventory adjustments.

Samejima said private firms are still cautiously implementing their capital spending, although the financial environment remains accommodative due to very low interest rates.

"Private firms' capital spending are still in cash flows. We will continue to closely monitor development of capital spending in addition to land prices," he said.


Capital Spending Increasing In All Regions Of Japan
Many branch managers reported upbeat views on individual economic items, such as capital spending, production, personal spending, and labor and income conditions.

Capital spending continued to be on an increasing trend in all regions. Most regions of Japan also reported that fund demand by small- and medium-sized companies as a whole are recovering.

Smaller firms reported that impact from a rise in lending rates after the BOJ's decision of ending the zero-interest-rate policy in mid-July was limited.

Many companies said "the rise in the interest rate was mild, and the impact was limited", according to the BOJ report.

Following the BOJ's scrapping of its zero-rate policy in July, many banks raised their short-term prime lending rate - a benchmark lending loan for smaller firms - to 1.625% from 1.375%.

The rise in interest rates haven't affected their capital spending plans either. Still, the pace of fund-raising by smaller firms will be mild as private firms continued to make efforts to maintain healthiness of their financial conditions, it said.

The outcome from the meeting matched the latest monthly economic report released last week.

The BOJ said last week that the Japanese economy continued expanding moderately and a long-lasting economic expansion will continue.

The result from the branch managers' meeting generally will not affect monetary policy.

Fukui will deliver a brief speech at a general assembly meeting of the Community Bank Shinyo Kumiai Friday.