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Commodity strategists: Commodity 'bubble' to burst, SocGen says

 
 
commodity-price "bubble" may not burst until the fourth quarter, when higher interest rates slow economic growth and demand for crude oil, copper and other raw materials, Societe Generale said.

Commodities including zinc and platinum have reached records in the last several months. Prices may rise further in the third quarter because of speculation about supply disruptions and declining inventory, Frederic Lasserre, Paris-based head of commodities research at France's third-largest bank, said in three reports between May 26 and May 31.

"The idea of a bubble is starting to gain popularity among investors," Lasserre said in a telephone interview yesterday. "But the bubble cannot burst until there is a consensus that it exists in the first place. We are not there yet."

Commodity prices, as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, have gained for four consecutive years, the longest winning streak since the early 1970s. In the third quarter, industrial metals will outpace precious metals, which in turn will outperform energy, Societe General predicts.

The index dropped 6.4 percent in the week to May 19, the biggest decline since 1980.

"We believe that this correction does not yet mark the end of the bull run and that performance should remain spectacular until the fourth quarter," Lasserre, 40, said in the reports.

Investors are divided on whether the bull market in commodities is over. Stephen Roach, chief economist at New York- based Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. investment bank, said May 15 the bubble will burst when China's economic growth slows. Jim Rogers, the former investment partner of George Soros, said on May 12 that record prices for raw materials will keep rising as demand outpaces supplies.

Metals gain
Copper has more than doubled in the past year, silver has gained 65 percent and gold has gained 52 percent. Oil climbed to a record $75.35 a barrel on April 21. Lasserre compared the commodity bubble with the surge in technology stocks in the late 1990s. Such bubbles tend to last an average of between nine and 12 months, he said.

Oil prices in New York, at $70.93 a barrel today, may average $67.50 in the fourth quarter and $58 next year, Societe Generale said. Prices may rise to an average of $76.50 in the third quarter, reaching as higher $80 in the period.

For copper, prices may rise to an average $9,500 a metric ton in the third quarter, before falling to an average of $7,650 in the last three months of the year. Prices, which are at $7,930 today, may fall to an average of $6,300 in 2007, the bank said.

Zinc may average $4,250 a ton in the third quarter before falling to an average of $3,100 in the fourth. Aluminium may average $3,350 a ton in the third quarter and $2,850 in the last quarter, the bank said.

Gold surges
For gold, prices may rise to an average of $770 an ounce in the third quarter before falling to an average of $650 in the fourth quarter. Prices, which were at $633.20 today, may average $573 next year.

Investors are diversifying from stocks and bonds and investing in so-called alternative investments such as commodities, real estate and hedge funds. Fund investments in commodity indexes and other products may exceed $120 billion by 2008, compared with $80 billion last year, according to estimates from Barclays Plc.

"The massive injection of capital in markets, which do not have the capacity to absorb it in such a short time, quite logically created unusual price behavior," Lasserre said.

Lasserre has worked for Societe Generale for the past 10 years after teaching economics and finance at the Bordeaux Business School in France.