นอกจากนี้ อ.Brian กล่าวว่าผู้คนมักไม่ค่อยมีเวลาให้กับการอ่านมากนักจึงทำให้เบื่อและไม่ค่อยอยากเป็น VI ตัวจริงเสียงจริงกัน
ถ้าสมาชิก TVI ท่านใดสนใจอ่านคำโต้แย้งก็อ่านจากข้างล่างนี้นะครับ
และผมได้สอดแทรกความเห็นเรื่องการอ่านที่ ชาร์ลี มังเกอร์และ วอร์เร็น บัพเฟตต์เน้นนักเน้นหนาไว้ดังนี้ครับSanjeev Parsad เขียน:Sorry Brian, I'm not sure your message is appropriate for the board, or gives the right impression of what it takes to become successful utilizing a "deep discount, margin of safety" philosophy. I just don't understand, and I'm sure alot of members on the board feel the same way, that what takes years of reading, studying and practice could be taught in a ten-hour seminar.
As a devout student of the Graham-Buffett approach, and as a professor of MBA investment analysis at St. John's University, I think the fundamental problem of an investor is that it takes so much time to read all the books, annual letters and lecture notes of Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham. The materials are great, but they are not well-organized or structured as MBA textbooks or CFA study guides, with summary sheets, outlines, formula sheets, steps and checklists, etc.
If baking a quality cake takes 45 minutes at 350 degrees, you aren't going to get the same cake by baking it at 600 degrees for 20 minutes! It just doesn't work like that. And thank God that Buffett and Graham's writings are nothing like MBA textbooks or the CFA study guides!
It's well-known by Berkshire shareholders that Charlie Munger is a voracious reader. There probably isn't anything in the world that he enjoys more. I would be hard-pressed to believe that Munger would condone, encourage or remotely consider reasonable your suggestion that your students would be better off absorbing a condensed version of your notes.
As a child I was somewhat of a gifted student. As I grew older, I was more and more challenged by the educational system, due to the fact that my learning process was structured, rather than based on my natural inclinations and interests. As a biology major with a minor in environmental toxicology, I was disturbed by the curriculum set forth by my university. It wasn't a balanced education with liberal doses of the arts, sciences, business and mathematics, but entirely based on my future occupation focused solely on science and math. It was stifling!
We churn out thousands and thousands of these graduates now. Some from university, some from college, some from trade schools, etc. This mentality isn't creating better doctors, lawyers, accountants or financial advisors. I don't understand how somebody can go to university and graduate with a degree in the sciences with only a rudimentary understanding of psychology, english or social sciences.
To say that you can summarize the key points of Buffett and Graham in a 10-hour session seems to follow the same trend. I think it is a disservice to your students if they aren't provided a broad base of knowledge. Very much like the quick fix Buffett screens, or the numerous anecdotal books written on Buffett (the Hagstrom books and Mary Buffett's book come to mind)!
Unfortunately, based on my above comments, I don't think your post was appropriate for the board, and it was subsequently removed. Sorry. Cheers!
จากนั้นทาง อ. Brian ก็เขียนตอบและถกเถียงว่า 10 ชั่วโมงดังกล่าวไม่สามารถทำให้นักลงทุนทั่วไปเปลี่ยนไปเป็น VI ในทันทีหรอก เพียงแต่ต้องการจัดระเบียบวิธีการเข้าถึงการเป็น VI ให้เป็นหมวดหมู่เพื่อง่ายต่อการแปลงกายเป็น VI แค่นั้นเอง และเรื่องการอ่านหนังสือนั้น อ. Brian ก็บอกว่าไม่เพียงเข้าคอร์ส 10 ชม.เท่านั้น ท่านยังแนะให้ไปอ่านหนังสืออีก 20 เล่มเพื่อทำให้ซึมซับความเป็น VI เข้าสมอง แกยังอ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Prof. Greenwald ที่พบว่า 80%ของนักศึกษาด้านการลงทุนของมหาวิทยาลัยโคลัมเบีย(ที่วอร์เร็นเคยเรียนกับ เบน แกรฮ์ม)จะเลิกสนใจที่จะลงทุนในแบบ value imvesting ไปเลยChotanavet เขียน:Sanjeev,
Your above comments are exactly what Munger mentioned at Wesco meeting in 2003 ,(Whitney Tilson's article name "Charlie Munger's Worldly Wisdom" at http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/200 ... 0509wt.htm ) especially on this paragraph:
The importance of reading
"In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn't read all the time --none, zero... You'd be amazed at how much Warren reads -- at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I'm a book with a couple of legs sticking out."
Best,
Chotanavet
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จากนั้น Sanjeev Parsad ก็ได้ถกเถียงเสริมว่าตัวเขาเองมีประสบการณ์ศึกษาพฤติกรรมของลูกค้าของเขาพบว่า 20-30% มีนิสัยชอบประหยัดและหาซื้อของลดราคา(bargain hunter) และเมื่อตรวจสอบกันจริงทางสถิติพบว่ากลุ่มคนเหล่านี้จะมีเพียงแค่ 3-5% เท่านั้นที่ประพฤติปฏิบัติตนเป็นคนนิสัยประหยัดในชีวิตประจำวัน ดังนั้นแค่มองหาพื้นฐานของคนที่จะเป็น VI ก็ยากมาก ดังนั้นคนที่จะมีเลือดของความเป็น VI ไม่ง่ายเลยBri zen เขียน:Hi, Sanjeev,
I fully appreciate your point.
In fact, at the end of my 10-hour workshop, I gave my associates a list of 20 books and a mountain of study notes to read further, just as you wisely advised.
I don't know if you have teached or not, but from my experience, not everyone have your brains, patience, or the time to read all the stuff. And worse yet, not everyone have the ability to come to a crutial framework or overview that Munger mentioned in order to make all the multiple models useful. In fact, Prof. Greenwald said that 80% of his value investing students at Columbia eventually abandon the value style later on. So even smart guys often times have a tough time learning the approach. There are just so much to read. And we have a problem competting with crash courses on riding the wave and option trading.
So do we just sit there and watch those nice people drift back into charts or get-rich-quick schemes?
To save the financial future of those 80%, I thought to myself, why don't we come up with a crash course on value investing, drill them repeatedly on the basic framework. So more people can get it. And then we drive them to read the mountains of stuff.
So far my silly plan seems to be working. I successfully converted a number of momentum players into value approach. Even some hard core well-read Berkshire fans find my outline approach extremely useful.
All in all, Sanjeev, I agree with you, there is no short-cut. And current short-cut books on the market have flaws. But I still think outlines, summary sheets, study guides, and even crash course like mine, do add some value to people not as smart as guys on this board.:) Just my 1 cent. Cheers!
Brian
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Brian Zen, CFA, PhD
http://www.zenway.com
นี่เป็นคำตอบจาก Sanjeev
ผมเลยอยากทำสำรวจดูว่าในมวลหมู่สมาชิก TVI ทั้งหลายมีอยู่กี่ % ที่เป็นนักลงทุนตามแนว Value Investing จริงๆครับ ???SanjeevParsad เขียน:..In fact, Prof. Greenwald said that 80% of his value investing students at Columbia eventually abandon the value style later on. So even smart guys often times have a tough time learning the approach. There are just so much to read. And we have a problem competting with crash courses on riding the wave and option trading.
Hello Brian, thank you for your discussion. I'm not sure it is the reading element that detracts students. "Value" investing seems inherently geared toward people with a certain mentality - they look for bargains. I think someone who clips coupons, looks for cheap gas prices, runs an efficient little business or shops at discount stores will have a better grasp of value investing than other people. They understand the value of a dollar and have a certain mindset when buying things.
From estimates off the top of my head, using my clients behaviour over the years as the study group, perhaps 20-30% of people will suggest that they look for bargains. But that statistic falls to perhaps 3-5% who really practice it on a day to day business in their daily lives. That's what makes "value" investing so difficult.
We are bombarded every day by advertising to keep up with the "Jones." But very few ads suggesting we keep our car for 10 years, or pay off our credit card balances every month. That frugal nature is a rare commodity in today's consumer, and for the most part has been the same way throughout history.
A quick course seminar can highlight some points, but there is no real shortcut to absorbing this whole process. There is absolutely no way your student would be able to read a balance sheet as readily, as somone who has been studying them for a few years. There is no shortcut there. It's an absolute art, as is investing, where an investor's natural tendancies can be enhanced, but the brushstrokes have to be their own. Both Munger and Buffett recently discussed at the AGM that temperament cannot be taught. It exists or it does not. Cheers!
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