Oil price already peaked,This company get the most benefit!!

[david]

The stagflation has had the impact to the world 's economics.The demand of oil will increase in the very small percentage.When I look @ the manipulated oil price,If I were the one who had bought the future oil contract,I might feel like I standed on the peak of Himalaya.If so many people think like this,we will c the big slump of its price.
     THAI will b the company who gets the most benefit from this.Its price was down from 70 baht in Nov.03 to 16 baht now,nearly 80% decrease.The P/BV is only 0.38.If the recent low is the bottom of the cycle,then,no need to talk about its target price if u look @ its history when it had reached its bottom @ 16.4(Nov01),it had climbed up to 70 in Nov03,327% gain in 2 years.Is this the handsome gain?

[mario]

คิดเหมือนกันครับ
หุ้นสายการบิน ในตลาดอเมริกา ขึ้นกระจายเลย

[david]

The price of PTT n PTTEP r the indicators.I think it's not only because of the
government regulation.

[mario]

ที่มา http://www.cnbc.com/id/25708045/for/cnbc/

Sector Wrap: Airlines surge on earnings, oil slipupdated
4:08 p.m. ET July 16, 2008Font size:
NEW YORK - Airline stocks soared Wednesday as oil fell significantly for a second straight day and two major carriers reported second-quarter adjusted results above Wall Street expectations.

American Airlines parent AMR Corp. posted an adjusted loss of $284 million, or $1.13 per share, excluding charges related to the value of its fleet. Analysts expected a loss of $1.40 per share, according to Thomson Financial.

Delta posted an adjusted profit, excluding one-time items, of $137 million, or 35 cents per share. Analysts forecast profit of 10 cents per share.

The Atlanta-based company also said it expects to achieve $2 billion in savings through 2012 from its acquisition of Northwest Airlines Corp. double what Delta previously predicted.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $4.14 to settle at $134.60 a barrel Wednesday, after earlier sinking as low as $132. A day earlier, prices posted their biggest one-day drop in dollar terms since the Gulf War.

But despite Wall Street's overwhelmingly positive response, analysts underscored that the sector's future remains grim.

Fitch Ratings said Wednesday increased cutbacks in domestic capacity will likely be needed as high fuel costs cut into carriers' liquidity. Fitch expects that all the U.S. legacy carriers will see a "rapid erosion of cash levels" at summer's end.

"This erosion could threaten their survival if adverse fuel trends continue, and multiple bankruptcies and liquidations are increasingly likely looking ahead to 2009," said Fitch Senior Director William Warlick. "The U.S. industry's current structure is unsustainable in the current fuel environment."

Among the sector's biggest gainers were United Airlines parent UAL Corp., which jumped $1.30, or 41.5 percent, to $4.43, and Continental Airlines, which surged $2.54, or 38.2 percent, to $9.19.

AMR leaped $1.41, or 31.9 percent, to $5.82. Delta Air Lines rose $1.24, or 26.6 percent, to $5.91.

Discount carrier Southwest Airlines Co. rose 87 cents, or 6.3 percent, to $14.62 and JetBlue Airways Corp. rose 68 cents, or 21.4 percent, to $3.86.

ที่มา http://www.cnbc.com/id/25689691

Jim Rogers: Here's What I'm Buying

Topics:Nasdaq | NYSE | Stock Market | Stock Options | Stock Picks
Jim Rogers has a sector pick -- and a major pan: The CEO of Rogers Holdings told CNBC that the government should not bail out Fannie Mae FANNIE MAEFNM
10.93  1.68  +18.16%  NYSE

Quote  |  Chart  |  News  |  Profile
[FNM  10.93    1.68  (+18.16%)   ] or Freddie Mac FREDDIE MACFRE
8.33  1.50  +21.96%  NYSE

Quote  |  Chart  |  News  |  Profile
[FRE  8.33    1.50  (+21.96%)   ], but should let them fail.

The Treasury Department and Federal Reserve said they would bolster Fannie and Freddie with vast infusions of aid. But Rogers believes that will only prolong economic weakness, increase the budget deficit -- and destroy the effectiveness of such rescue measures when they're really needed.

"In two years or three years, when six or eight other [institutions] are failing, America won't have any more bullets left," he said.

Rogers noted that he's "been short Fannie Mae since I came here three years ago or four years ago," adding that "I'm short lots of banks."

Recommendations:

So what does the investor like?

Rogers said he was investing in airlines, which have seen tough times due to soaring fuel costs -- and fears of further increases in oil prices.

"I am buying airlines. If you fly a lot, you'll see that you can't get a seat, the rates are going higher. The capacity is going down and the demand is still there," Rogers said.

[noooon010]

ความเห็นจากการ"วิแคะ"สายการบินของผมสายการบิน

- ต้นทุน ต่างๆโดยเฉพาะเรื่องราคาน้ำมัน มีผลต่อต้นทุนมากพอสมควร
- ธุรกิจการบิน เป็นสิ่งที่"ยากเกินไป"สำหรับผม
- การบินไทย ; ยังมีอะไรหลายอย่างที่เกี่ยวข้องกับกิจการ นอกจากเรื่อง ราคาน้ำมัน(คงเดากันออกนะครับ)

ผมว่า กระทู้นี้มีแนวคิดดีเหมือนกัน มาคุยกันเรื่อยๆครับ เผื้อบางทีเราอาจจะหาหุ้นดีๆที่คนมองข้ามได้

[david]

Where will the money goto?The oil market which increase more than 100% in a year OR the stock market which already decrease 20-60% in less than a year?

[Linzhi]

Khun David,
how about recently scandal and dispute case in THAI krub ?
what do you think about the possibility of win/lose ? and damage

[noooon010]

ขออนุญาติ รวมกระทู้นี้เข้าด้วยกันละกันนะครับ

http://www.pantip.com/cafe/sinthorn/top ... 08835.html

อ่านกัน 2 web ได้ idea เยอะขึ้น
ผมชอบนะครับ คุยกันด้วยเหตุ ด้วยผล แล้วเราจะเกิดทั้ง สติ และ ปัญญา ครับ

ขอบคุณคุณ david สำหรับกระทู้กระตุ้นให้สมองผมได้คิดมากขึ้นนะครับ  :D

[david]

When the greedy becomes the fearfulness,we 'll c the real fundamental price of OIL.KEEP YOUR HANDS OUT OF THE FALLING SWORD.

[SSL]

1. While oil price has recently dropped, the situation in the Gulf (Iran), I believe, is not settled. 2. The way THAI is operated is also so much different from that of the US commercial airlines.

[david]

dEAR kHUN lINZHI,
I think THAI's price was already priced in this news already,though the case has yet not  finallised.If THAI has to pay 5,000 million baht,it will b the one time off n its BV will decrease less than 3 baht,comparing to 55 baht decrease from its peak(70 baht)

Dear Khun noooon010
I'm so glad 2 know that.

[Alastor]

ตลาดเค้า react ไวนะครับ อะไรจะขนาดนั้น น้ำมันลงแค่ 2 วันเอง ผลประกอบการณ์ประกาศกัน 3 เดือนหน หรือว่าเค้าเห็นอนาคตว่าน้ำมันจะเป็นราคาเท่าไหร่?

[A man from the Islay]

ไม่ซื้อ S'Pore Airlines จะดีกว่ามั๊ยครับ? (ถ้าซื้อได้)

[Oatarm]

Too early judgement  already peaked although graph  break  through  upward trendline.  Anyway  I really cheer it bacome down trand,  I agree with the world economic start recession the stock which related airline have been diving  , probably  market over reacted . Reward is waiting for the right forecast Good luck.

[Linzhi]

Thanks for your comment krub.

Good luck for your speculation. I personally think this story is not strong enough and has high riskiness about oil price trend. It is still heavily related to loading factor, competition, and other factors as well.

But you might be right. I'm not a big fan of THAI so just wanna share a comment.  

[หมีบึงกุ่ม]

Interesting!  I'll have to get a closer look.  How do you realize about this in the first place?  Oh...and why English, by the way?

[simplelife]

One of the biggest beneficiaries of the oil decline is almost always the airline industries. This is simply because huge chunks of their expenses are fuel related. It's pretty much known reactions at least in the NYSE. Obviously, one of the biggest losers in the market is in the petroleum energy sector. Over the last 5 days, Airline sector is up about 15% while Oil & Gas sector is down about 5%. And THAI's gain of 3% we saw today is probably classic impulse buying by investors and speculators. Sadly, in the case of THAI, I sincerely think we are jumping the gun to call this a turnaround! THAI will probably need way more than a mere 10% drop of fuel cost to break its extended downward trend. The downtrend that I cannot even remember when it started, so many years back.

Lets start with the basic first. Most of THAI passengers are international tourists visiting Thailand. Do we have any statistics regarding our tourism this year?  IIRC, tourisms grew about only 3-4% yoy in 2007, compared with 20+% in 2006. But with the political turmoil and lengthy southern insurgency issue, I started to doubt that we can enjoy the same rate of tourism let alone looking for growth. Frankly, even Thais who live in Thailand probably even want to get out of the country. Besides, are we absolutely sure we can call this oil price "peaked"? Are we expecting oil prices to go down further and stay down from now? IF we even take "speculation" factors out, do we know for sure that global demand-supply won't create $200-a-barrel oil anytime soon? I think the question should be instead how long do you think this oil slide will last?

I don't even know why I'm writing in English. Seems like after จขกท started it and I feel little funny to join English conversion using Thai. BTW,  I also want to add that as an investor I'm not a fan of THAI either..

[KB]

ผมว่าหุ้น THAI ไม่ผ่านเรื่องธรรมาภิบาลอย่างมากครับ แต่ถ้าคิดว่าหุ้นมันถูกเกินไปซื้อไว้ก็มีสิทธิ์กำไรไม่น้อย แต่จะหวังไปแข่งขันกับระดับโลก หรือให้เติบโตในระยะยาวคงยาก อย่างมากก็แค่มีช่วงที่เป็นหุ้นก้นบุหรี หยิบขึ้นมาดูดซักทีแล้วก็ต้องทิ้งไป

[i_sarut]

ขอบคุณครับ

ส่วนตัวเห็นด้วยกับพี่ KB เลยครับ

การเมืองเยอะเหลือเกิน  :lol:

[terati20]

น่าสนใจ คงเป็นก้นบุหรี่ ดูดซักปืด เเล้วก็จากไป  :lol:   :lol:

[david]

เลห์แมน บราเธอร์ ได้ออกบทวิเคราะห์ปรับลดการคาดการณ์การใช้น้ำมันของโลกลง โดยเชื่อว่าตลาดน้ำมันกำลังเข้าสู่จุดพลิกผัน โดยคาดว่าราคาน้ำมันจะร่วงลงสู่ระดับ 90 เหรียญสหรัฐต่อบาร์เรลในไตรมาสที่ 1/52

[david]

DEar all,
 After the oil price reached 140$+/barrel,I had read one article about oil demand n supply compare to the value of dollar n oil,it showed that the oil price was more than 30% inflated.Then,I try to find out whaich industry to get the most benefit if the oil price  slump,I found that airline industry was the LAST ANSWER,n we have only ne co. which is listed in SET,THAI.Though,its CG has been not pretty good,but the market had already punished it 4 very long time,u can c its valuation which has been cheap than its peers.BUT THAI should has its own valuation too!!!I think the market gives too low valuation to THAI.I MAY HOLD THAI FOR 2 YEARS(MAY LESS THAN THIS) AND HOPE TO C ITS PRICE REACH @ 35 BAHT(MORE THAN 100% OF CAPITAL GAIN).GOD BLESS ME

[maeteeb]

God Bless You David and THAI

[maeteeb]

AP
Stocks soar after another drop in oil prices
Tuesday July 29, 5:45 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer  
Stocks jump as falling oil prices, upbeat confidence data lift Wall Street's consumer gloom


NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street shot higher Tuesday, gaining back the previous session's sharp losses and then some, after a drop in oil prices and a rise in consumer confidence gave investors some hope for a letup in Americans' financial woes. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 266 points.
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Crude oil prices sank $2.54 to $122.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, extending their two-week-long retreat from record highs above $147. The prospect of lower energy costs for U.S. consumers, along with a modest uptick in the Conference Board's July index of consumer confidence to 51.9 from 51 in June, came as welcome news. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

"The thinking is that oil prices are heading lower, and that's obviously a positive for the market," said Richard E. Cripps, chief market strategist for Stifel Nicolaus.

A stock bounce was hardly unexpected, though, after the Dow lost nearly 240 points Monday on worries about the sagging financial sector. Wall Street is torn: Energy prices, if they continue on their downward path, could provide big relief to consumers and in turn help the economy, but credit losses keep mounting at the nation's major banks. The result is big swings in the market but little consistent direction.

"We're living from one piece of news to the next," said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist for RidgeWorth Capital Management. The market's volatility is likely to continue unless it gets further evidence that oil prices are, indeed, on their way down, and that banks have already seen the bulk of their losses.

In a sign that there could be additional asset markdowns for banks, Merrill Lynch & Co. announced late Monday that it was writing down another $5.7 billion and selling assets tied to risky debt at a steep discount to Lone Star Funds, a distressed debt investor.

Still, Merrill's moves at least answered lingering questions about the health of the brokerage's balance sheet. And many analysts said the asset sale could help to finally establish a market for all the hard-to-value securities held by various financial institutions.

"The bad news is, there's going to be write-downs. The better news is, we can estimate those write-downs with better clarity," Gayle said.

The Dow gained 266.48, or 2.39 percent, to 11,397.56.

Broader stock indicators also climbed. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 28.83, or 2.34 percent, to 1,263.20, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 55.40, or 2.45 percent, to 2,319.62.

The Dow and the S&P are now less than 20 percent below their Oct. 9 record peaks -- technically out of bear market territory. The Nasdaq is less than 19 percent below its Oct. 31 peak. Still, another downturn will put the market back into bear territory, and some analysts would call an advance like Tuesday's a bear market rally.

Advancing issues outnumbered by nearly 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated volume came to a moderate 5.11 billion shares, up from 4.16 billion shares Monday.

Bond prices fell after advancing a day earlier. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 4.04 percent from 4.01 percent late Monday.

The dollar was mostly higher against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Merrill, which plans to issue new stock to raise $8.5 billion, initially saw its stock drop. But shares later rallied to finish up $1.92, or 8 percent, at $26.25.

Most other financial stocks also bounced higher. Citigroup Inc. rose $1.03, or 5.9 percent, to $18.46; Washington Mutual Inc. rose 46 cents, or 11.7 percent, to $4.40; Bank of America Corp. rose $3.97, or 14.2 percent, to $32.03; and Wachovia Corp. rose $1.98, or 14.5 percent, to $15.61.

Airline stocks also jumped due to slumping oil prices. AMR Corp., the parent of American Airlines, rose $1.47, or 18.4 percent, to $9.47; Delta Air Lines Inc. rose $1.01, or 14.6 percent, to $7.91; and United parent UAL Corp. rose $1.50, or 21.4 percent, to $8.51.