Twist ของ Fed มาแล้วครับ หุ้นดิ่งเลยทันที

[multipleceilings]

เฮ้อ จะเป็นไงติดตามกันต่อ........ sensitivity สูงจังตอนนี้

Fed to Shift Treasury Holdings to Longer-Term Securities in Stimulus Step

By Scott Lanman - Sep 22, 2011 1:27 AM GMT+0700 .

Federal Reserve policy makers will replace some bonds in their portfolio with longer-term Treasuries in an effort to further reduce borrowing costs and keep the economy from relapsing into a recession.

The central bank will buy $400 billion of bonds with maturities of six to 30 years through June while selling an equal amount of debt maturing in three years or less, the Federal Open Market Committee said today in Washington after a two-day meeting. The action is intended to “put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative,” the FOMC said in a statement. The Fed will also reinvest maturing mortgage debt into mortgage-backed securities instead of Treasuries. Three officials dissented, the same as at the prior meeting in August.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke expanded use of unconventional monetary tools for a second straight meeting after job gains stalled and the government lowered its estimate of second- quarter growth. Today’s action, dubbed “Operation Twist” by economists after a similar Fed action in 1961, may lower interest rates and avoids reprising the money creation that sparked Republican criticism last year.

“There are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets,” the Fed statement said. Stocks and 10-year Treasury yields declined after the statement.

The Fed left unchanged its pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero through at least mid-2013 as long as unemployment remains high and the inflation outlook stays “subdued.” The central bank has kept the target federal funds rate for overnight interbank loans in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

The Fed said it will release a schedule of purchases and sales of bonds for October on Sept. 30.

Rate Pledge

Policy makers amended the interest-rate pledge at their Aug. 9 meeting to substitute mid-2013 for the less-specific “extended period” that had been in FOMC statements since March 2009.

Inflation “appears to have moderated since earlier in the year,” the Fed said today. The Fed’s preferred price gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 1.6 percent in July from a year earlier, accelerating from a 1 percent gain in March.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and Charles Plosser of the Philadelphia Fed voted against the FOMC decision for a second consecutive meeting. They “did not support additional policy accommodation at this time,” the Fed statement said today.

The Fed’s System Open Market Account held $2.64 trillion in securities as of Sept. 14, which included $1.65 trillion in Treasury notes, bills and inflation-protected bonds and $995 billion of mortgage debt. The central bank purchased $2.3 trillion in debt from December 2008 through June in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing aimed at lowering borrowing costs for companies and consumers with the benchmark interest rate already at zero.

Maturities of Notes

Of the Fed’s $1.56 trillion in Treasury notes, 19 percent mature in less than two years; 35 percent have maturities of two to five years; 36 percent are due in five to 10 years; and 10 percent mature in 10 to 30 years, according to Bloomberg calculations based on New York Fed data. The average maturity was 6.1 years.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipated a Fed program today to extend the duration of its Treasuries. Of 42 surveyed analysts, 71 percent forecast such a move, even as 61 percent said it would probably fail to reduce unemployment.

The Operation Twist from 1961, conducted with the Treasury Department, got its name from Chubby Checker’s hit song, “The Twist,” according to a report published March 14 by Eric Swanson, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. That move lowered long-term Treasury yields by about 15 basis points, or 0.15 percentage point, according to Swanson.

Treasury Yields

Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell to a record low today on concerns global growth is flagging and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will intensify. The rate was 1.94 yesterday, compared with this year’s high of 3.74 percent in February.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index has declined 12 percent through yesterday from its 2011 peak of 1,370.58 on May 2. The dollar has declined 2.5 percent this year against a basket of six currencies while rebounding 5.9 percent from a low on May 4.

Bernanke and his colleagues, who have a dual congressional mandate to achieve stable prices and maximum employment, are renewing their push to reduce 9.1 percent joblessness that’s crept up 0.3 point since March. It reached a 26-year high of 10.1 percent in October 2009.

“Importantly, nearly half of those currently unemployed have been out of work for more than six months, by far the highest ratio in the post-World War II period,” the 57-year-old former Princeton University economist said in July congressional testimony. By eroding skills, long-term unemployment “reduces the productive potential of our economy as a whole,” he said.

In the same remarks, Bernanke listed potential levers to ease policy including “more explicit guidance” for the low- rate pledge, which was used in August; buying more securities; lengthening the average maturity of holdings; and lowering the 0.25 percent interest rate paid on banks’ reserves.

He avoided further discussion of those options in two speeches over the past month, instead stressing that the Fed still has tools and announcing the expansion of this week’s meeting to two days from one to consider them. Many officials at the August meeting “saw increased downside risks to the outlook for economic growth,” minutes of the session said.

Excess bank reserves held on deposit by the Fed have increased to $1.57 trillion as of Sept. 7 from $969.4 billion in November, when the central bank began its $600 billion second round of asset purchases, also known as QE2.

That policy brought the Fed in for the strongest political criticism in three decades as Republicans, including Ohio Representative John Boehner, now the House speaker, said the central bank’s actions risked depreciating the dollar and causing too much inflation.

Republican lawmakers including Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell urged Bernanke in a letter this week to refrain from additional monetary easing to avoid “further harm” to the economy.

The barbs have extended to the Republican campaign for the 2012 presidential nomination, with Texas Governor Rick Perry saying Aug. 15 that Bernanke would be treated “pretty ugly down in Texas” if he printed more money before the election.

“The Fed can replicate a lot of the effects of QE2 just by extending the maturity of its debt,” Dana Saporta, U.S. economist at Credit Suisse in New York, said before the decision.

While inflation has picked up this year, most FOMC members anticipated last month that it would “settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s mandate,” minutes of the August meeting said.

Traders agree, marking down U.S. inflation expectations to the lowest levels this year. The breakeven inflation rate, calculated from yield differences on 10-year Treasury notes and inflation-indexed U.S. government bonds of similar maturity, has fallen to 1.92 percent from a 2011 high of 2.67 percent on April 11.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 1 percent annual pace in the second quarter, the government said Aug. 26, reducing the initial 1.3 percent estimate. Growth may be accelerating to 1.8 percent in the third period, according to the median estimate of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from Sept. 2 to Sept. 7. The International Monetary Fund yesterday cut its U.S. growth projection for 2011 to 1.5 percent from 2.5 percent in June.

“The economy is certainly not headed in a particularly exciting direction, but it looks like a bounce is taking place,” said Roberto Perli, a former Fed economist who is now a managing director at International Strategy & Investment Group in Washington.

The pace isn’t fast enough to make much of a dent in joblessness, analysts say. The unemployment rate won’t budge from 9.1 percent for the rest of the year, based on the median estimate of economists in the Bloomberg survey; it will reach 8.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, respondents said.

U.S. employers added zero jobs to payrolls last month, the weakest showing since September 2010. Job growth averaged 179,000 positions in the first four months of 2011 and 40,000 from May through August.

Retail sales in the U.S. stagnated last month, and manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace since 2009. Consumer confidence is close to the lowest of the two-year recovery and new-home sales are little changed over the past year. The Fed’s last Beige Book business survey showed the economy grew at a slower pace in some regions of the country and at a “modest” clip nationwide.

“We’re still facing an uncertain macro environment with volatile consumer shopping behavior,” Brian J. Dunn, chief executive officer of Best Buy Co., said on a Sept. 13 conference call.

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at [email protected].

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at [email protected]

[multipleceilings]

เอาแล้วไง โล้นซ่า..... หวังว่าอย่างน้อยจะเป็น bungee jump และไม่ใช่ freefall

[multipleceilings]

full text จัดไปครับ สรุปง่ายๆจาก index ที่รูด ตลาดไม่เชื่อการวิเคราะห์สถานการณ์และการคาดการณ์ของ fed และไม่พอใจใน twist จบข่าว

Full Text of Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 21 Policy Statement


QBy Washington newsroom


The following is a reformatted version of the full text of the statement released today by the Federal Reserve in Washington:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor vehicles as supply- chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer- term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

To help support conditions in mortgage markets, the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who did not support additional policy accommodation at this time.

[multipleceilings]

ตีความอีกนัยนึงง่ายๆคือ fed บอกว่า "พวกเมิงเลิกเอาเงินมาซื้อ long term ได้แล้ว เอาเงินไปทำอย่างอื่น ปล่อยกู้อะไรว่าไป ช่วยเหลือกกันเอง กระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจกันเองบ้าง"

ที่เหลือบอกว่า

ไม่มีทาง!!!!

ผมว่าเหมือนตบหน้า fed ไปหนึ่งทีด้วย

คนเราไม่อยากช่วยตัวเอง จะให้แต่คนอื่นช่วย ไหวไม๊ครับ

ใครได้เห็น secret lifeline aid ที่รัฐมอบให้กับสถาบันการเงินใหญ่ๆทั้งหลายจะเข้าใจ แต่กระทู้นั้นมันหายไปจากโลกแล้ว และผมลืมไปแล้วมันชื่ออะไร

[imerlot]

ขอโทษ นะ ลุงแซม แต่ อาการ คล้ายๆ
คนกู้ บัตรเครดิต 2 ไปจ่าย บัตร 1..